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columnist: Walt Thiessen

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Topic: Presidential Campaign 2008
Paul Doubles Polling Numbers, Third In New Hampshire

Ron Paul has doubled his support in New Hampshire over the past 15 days, according to Rasmussen Reports.
by Walt Thiessen
(Libertarian)
Saturday, January 5, 2008

A daily poll by Rasmussen is showing Ron Paul has doubled his share of the vote in New Hampshire, jumping from 7% up to 14% in just 15 days. Obviously, this is major news. The Rasmussen website was so jammed with Ron Paul supporters earlier today trying to get to it right now that no one can get through. That alone shows the power of the Ron Paul revolution. We're not talking about a boycott or a bunch of angry activists. We're just talking about tens of thousands of people trying to view a web page because news has spread like wildfire throughout the net that Ron Paul is now polling in third place in New Hampshire.

While the Rasmussen page remains under seige from all the demand, you can read the actual numbers at pollster.com.

Here's the way the changes in the Rasmussen polls over the past 15 days stack up:

  12/18/2007 1/4/2008 Change
Ron Paul 7% 14% +7 points
John McCain 27% 31% +4 points
Mike Huckabee 11% 11% Even
Fred Thompson 5% 3% -2 points
Rudy Giuliani 13% 8% -5 points
Mitt Romney 31% 26% -5 points

This moves Paul up from fifth place to third place in just two weeks. McCain has a four point bump, probably because many of the TV pundits were saying after Iowa that Huckabee's Iowa win might make this a two-man race between Huckabee and McCain. Meanwhile, Huckabee is holding steady and Thompson is down two points, but Giuliani and Romney are plummeting.

The Rasmussen article says, "Sixty-four percent (64%) of McCain’s voters say they are "certain" they will vote for him. Sixty-two percent (62%) of Romney supporters are that certain along with 83% of Ron Paul voters and 66% for Mike Huckabee." Clearly, Paul supporters are the most solid of all. The article also says, "Nationally, in both the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and the Rasmussen Markets data, there is no clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination."

This is going to be very interesting. How will this affect Fox's decision to exclude Paul from their televised forum? In theory, it should be enough to justify including him. Add in the fact that the New Hampshire Republican Party has come out against Fox's decision to exclude Paul and Duncan Hunter and dropping their sponsorship of the event, and the pressure is now squarely on Fox to do the smart thing.

Either way that pans out, the news is good for Paul. Now he gets a ton of exposure from news sources trying to make sense out of his exclusion while simultaneously being the fastest climber in Rasmussen's New Hampshire primary polls.

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2008 Walt Thiessen, all rights reserved.
Published: Saturday, January 5, 2008
Last modified: Saturday, January 5, 2008

The views expressed in this article are those of Walt Thiessen only and do not represent the views of Nolan Chart, LLC or its affiliates. Walt Thiessen is solely responsible for the contents of this article and is not an employee or otherwise affiliated with Nolan Chart, LLC in his/her role as a columnist.

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Reader Comments:

Posted By: creator
Date: 2008-01-05 11:49:05

Music to our ears! Thanks Walt! :)

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Posted By: Harry
Date: 2008-01-05 16:06:58

I’m glad Ron Paul was excluded from the Republican forum and here’s why.

 

In my opinion, without Ron Paul this is a non-event. His supporters should not tune in to watch, I know I won’t. The people who do watch will see 5 big government pawns cutting each others throats (I hope) plus the pandering to the uninformed public will be palpable. They have nothing to gain except to move their votes around between themselves.

 

I’m glad that Ron Paul will not be subjected to lowering himself to engage this group of vipers (including the forum moderator). The forum would turn into a 6 to 1 attack (not the Dr. Paul wouldn’t hold his own) but why waste his time and energy.

 

If Fox News should change their minds and extend an invitation, I have mixed feeling as to whether he should accept or not. It would tickle me to no end, if he told them he had better things to do.

 

By exclusion, Ron Paul has received more press and air time than he ever would have received had they just let him attend. The terms “blowback” and “unintended consequences” come to mind. Fox News = worthless; “the big 5” = worthless; Ron Paul = Priceless

 

Is my support for Dr. Paul and my total disgust for the fear perpetuators and warmongers too obvious?

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Posted By: Prem
Date: 2008-01-05 16:20:33

This is a daily poll, right? What were the results in the interceding two weeks? Poll results done on a daily basis shouldn't be surprising, unless something somehow causes opinions to change suddenly, and why would they change today as opposed to two days ago? Stupid polls. Haven't we been saying that polls aren't good indicators of anything anyway?

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Posted By: warispeace
Date: 2008-01-05 16:21:30

Just for fun, check out "Who Would The World Elect":

http://www.whowouldtheworldelect.com/

Ron Paul has received far more votes than ALL of the other candidates, in BOTH parties, COMBINED!

The rest of the country and the world are hoping the people of the great state of New Hampshire make the right decision on Tuesday and vote for peace, prosperity, and personal liberty.  Restore the Constitution, end the wars, save the economy...vote Ron Paul!!!

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Posted By: Bob Miller
Date: 2008-01-05 19:15:52

Have I got great news gang. Just got off of the phone with Britney Spears, and as soon as she is released from the Cedars-Sinai Psychiatric Ward, she is willing to do an infomercial about her new book, "Parenting My Way". All the proceeds will go to Ron Paul. I had chip in a few copies of my newest book, "The Elephant Got More Votes Than Ron Paul" to the show, but it was worth it. Nothing like watching the trailer park crowd give their money to politicians and preachers. Words can’t express how much I miss Jerry Falwell and James Kennedy. Those two could empty pockets faster than Bush can lie.

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