Topic: Presidential Campaign 2008
Iowa Fallout: Don't Believe the Hype! The difference between weather and politics is that politics continues the cycle of spin and hype even after the underlying event proves to be a total dud.by The Indepublicrat
(Centrist)
Friday, January 4, 2008
♣ The first snowfall of the season, in those parts of the country where snow regularly falls, is a local media event--lots of special graphics, detail-packed coverage, cutaways from scheduled broadcasts, and a frenzy of hype. People get worked up in advance, but the event itself is often a mere dusting of snow that spectacularly fails to live up to the level of anticipation. Likewise the first primary or caucus of the election season. The difference between weather and politics is that politics continues the cycle of spin and hype even after the underlying event proves to be a total dud.
On the Democratic side, the spin is that Barak Obama won the Iowa state caucuses by a stunning margin over his chief rival, Hillary Clinton, who came in a dismal third behind John Edwards. Glossed over in the coverage is the fact that caucuses and primaries are not "winner take all" affairs like we see in the general election, and also the fact that only "regular delegates" are up for grabs while so-called superdelegates aren't beholden to the popular vote. Obama's victory netted him 16 delegates, only one delegate more than the 15 that Clinton picked up. And since Clinton already has 154 superdelegates in her camp to Obama's 50, it means that Obama could win all fifty states and the District of Columbia by the exact same margin as in Iowa and still not keep Clinton from claiming the nomination.
Which doesn't mean that a Clinton nomination is inevitable, as long as Obama can kick his campaign up to a high enough gear to perform at least twice as well in the rest of the country as he did in Iowa, gaining on Clinton by an average of two or more delegates in each and every race from here on. It will be easier for him now, with the momentum and fundraising jolts he'll get after Iowa, but still a whole lot more of an uphill battle than the horserace-happy media would lead one to believe.
On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee showed that religious pandering appeals strongly to evangelical corn farmers; Mitt Romney showed that not everybody is impressed by a big-money flood of negative campaigning; Rudy Giuliani showed that you probably won't get many votes in a state you mostly ignore--except that John McCain showed the exact opposite; and Fred Thompson proved that he's not quite ready to go back to his acting career. Ron Paul picked up some delegates and will continue to do so as long as he stays in the race. I don't see him taking the nomination but he should take a small cache of delegates into the conference and may be able to use them to leverage some of his planks into the party platform.
Because the state of Iowa is fairly unrepresentative of the country as a whole, because the candidates varied widely in the time and resources poured into this race, and because of the disparity of messages in their commercials and campaign materials, there's no real way to use these results to predict outcomes in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, Florida, or anywhere else. A few delegates shifted into place but on the whole we know nothing more about the Republican race now than we did before the caucuses.
So what we've got after a snowstorm of hype is a Democratic race that's a tiny nibble closer than it used to be and a Republican race that's in as much flux as ever. The main difference in the race, going into New Hampshire, is that Democrats Dodd and Biden have dropped out of the race entirely while Republican Hunter, Democrat Gravel, and Democrat Kucinich have been so marginalized that they won't be invited to the next round of debates. In reality TV terms they've been voted off the island, fired from the boardroom, and are no longer dancing with the stars, which gives the remaining candidates a better shot at the prize. That's good news for the remaining candidates, but bad news for voters who might like a wider range of options.
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2008 The Indepublicrat, all rights reserved.
Published: Friday, January 4, 2008
Last modified: Friday, January 4, 2008
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Posted By: Louis Nardozi
Date: 2008-01-04 18:56:56
Quotes from Bloomberg Economic News
``Since 1949 the unemployment rate has never risen by this magnitude without the economy being in recession,'' John Ryding, chief U.S. economist at Bear Stearns Cos. in New York, said in a note to clients. ``We now put ourselves on recession watch.''
Factories have already slowed. ISM's manufacturing index for last month fell to 47.7, the lowest since April 2003, the purchasers group said this week.
Factory payrolls decreased by 31,000 after falling 13,000 a month earlier. Economists had forecast a drop of 15,000 in manufacturing employment. Builders reduced payrolls by 49,000 after cutting 37,000 jobs in November.
Government payrolls increased by 31,000 during the month, indicating private payrolls declined by 13,000.
Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve will increase the size of two scheduled auctions of emergency loans by 50 percent to $30 billion as part of a global attempt by central bankers to restore faith in the money markets.
NYT
Of 1,000 owners surveyed nationwide, only 28 percent said they felt economic conditions for their businesses were improving, while 65 percent said conditions were getting worse.
After inching down in recent weeks, average gas prices across the nation rose by 7.3 cents last week to $3.053 per gallon, 71.9 cents higher than the same period last year, the Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday.
Business Week
"Staying at [the $100] level will mean inflation and economic hardship," says Fadel Gheit, senior energy analyst for Oppenheimer Holdings (OPY). "The price has nothing to do with fundamentals, but it has a broad impact."
Here's a question for you. How many books on economics has your candidate read? How many has he WRITTEN? The best economist in the world can't convince someone to whom he can't explain the problem. It looks very like we are headed for a recession or a depression. Before you cast your all-important primary vote, shouldn't you find out who has the most education on economics? This is not one of those times when you basically get bragging rights. This time, it may make the difference between you keeping your job and house or living on the streets. Remember, if we ALL sink there will be no one to give you welfare. Even people who OWN their house could be dispossessed by incredibly high real estate taxes. I know everyone says he is a long shot, but PLEASE do yourself (and me) a favor and research Dr. Ron Paul. The house you save may be your own.
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2008 The Indepublicrat, all rights reserved.