There were no real surprises in the Iowa caucuses, unless you weren't paying attention. by William Westmiller
(libertarian)
Friday, January 4, 2008
The number of voters who turned out was higher than expected for both parties, but that was the result of an unusually large number of broadcast presidential debates and a few abnormally motivating issues.
With Democrats overwhelmingly opposed to the war, Barack Obama turned out a lot of young voters who saw him as the most anti-war candidate in the field. That may have diminished the results for Ron Paul, with many independent voters going to the Democratic, rather than the Republican, caucuses. If there is any surprise, it is that over 70% of Democrats did not vote for Hillary Clinton, even though she bettered her husband’s dismal four percent in the 1992 caucuses.
The Huckabee win was unique and exclusive to Iowa. George Bush voters, primarily evangelicals motivated by a Baptist minister, turned out to embarrass Mitt Romney’s superior money and organization. Romney came in at the lower edge of the pollster’s sampling errors, while Ron Paul exceeded expectations.
Although Ron Paul was three points away from a third-place finish, that may have been purely a matter of timing. His record-setting "money bombs" were too late to get a ground organization active. Paul’s campaign didn’t even have County Coordinators in Iowa until late December. That isn’t the case in New Hampshire, where he has been building support for several months. That primary is likely to be make-or-break for Paul, who has to finish with at least a strong second to gain momentum for South Carolina and Florida.
Mitt Romney clearly lost in Iowa. The breaking point may have been his "Mormon Speech," which failed to put him into the good graces of Christian evangelicals. That won’t matter much in New Hampshire, Romney’s neighbor state, where he has to win. McCain has an edge in New Hampshire as a "moderate," but Ron Paul is perfectly suited for the "Live Free or Die" state. Fred Thompson’s campaign barely mustered 13% in Iowa and is running at under two percent in current New Hampshire polls. It’s a safe bet that he’ll be out of the race by January 9th. Rudy Giuliani’s status as "heir apparent" to the Bush forces may be able to survive losses in early primaries, but he’ll have absolutely no momentum for the Florida primary in late January.
The views expressed
in this article are those of William Westmiller only and
do not represent the views of Nolan Chart, LLC or its affiliates.
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The Huckabee win was unique and exclusive to Iowa. George Bush 