While the other GOP contenders fight for media attention, Ron Paul continues to quietly pick up delegates. by George Dance
(libertarian)
Monday, February 20, 2012
In the contest for the Republican Presidential nomination, as portrayed by the media, Ron Paul is in last place for National Convention Delegates, with a paltry 19 – far behind Mitt Romney’s 123.(1) In fact, though, not a single National Delegate has been chosen in any primary or caucus to date. The process of choosing Delegates to the National Convention has little to do with the preference polls being reported; it is far more complex, as I discovered and first wrote about four years ago.(2)
In most states, the only delegates elected to date have been delegates to county conventions or assemblies. Those country assemblies will in turn choose delegates to state and Congressional District GOP conventions, to be held in the spring or early summer. Those latter, in their turn, will select the National Convention Delegates (spelled here with a capital D, to distinguish them from the lower-level delegates). In some cases Delegates are legally bound to vote for the winner of their state’s preference poll. In others, they are bound for only the first ballot. In yet others, Delegates are not bound at all, and may vote for the candidate of their choice.(2)
Ron Paul’s campaigns have always focussed on electing lower-level delegates in order to elect national Delegates. “"Our goal has always been to walk into the national GOP convention with as many Delegates as possible," declared Paul’s 2008 campaign manager, Lew Moore.(2) “The bottom line is, who is going to get the Delegates,” Paul repeated to CNN-TV this week.(3)
As in 2008, the campaign’s efforts are being assisted by the rEVOLution – the grassroots freedom movement that formed around the campaign in 2007-2008. There are big differences between the two election cycles, though. Last time around, the rEVOLutionaries were mainly outsiders, new to Republican politics; this time, they are benefitting from five years of experience and networking within the party.
“We think we’re doing pretty good” in the first stage of delegate selection, Paul told CNN – an assessment echoed by his 2012 campaign manager, John Tate. “We are confident that when all is said and done and some of these caucus states finish their process that we will end up with either a good plurality or a majority of the Delegates out of Maine, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, possibly Colorado," predicts Tate.(3)
In the most extreme case, Colorado, Paul finished last in the caucus preference poll, with just 12% of the vote (up from 8% in 2008); but the campaign reports that a full 50% of county convention delegates are Paul supporters.(4) In some precincts, Paul lost the preference poll but walked away with all of the county assembly delegates.(5)
In Iowa, where Paul finished third in the preference poll with 20% (up from 10% in 2008), he is projected by Associated Press [AP] to win no Delegates.(3) However, on caucus night sources reported that the campaign “nailed down the [county convention] delegates in all of Iowa’s smaller counties, and made a strong showing in several larger ones.”(6)
In Nevada, Paul finished third with 19% (up from 14% in 2008). AP gives him five of the state’s 28 Delegates. The campaign reports only that it “will do very well in the state delegate counts.“(5) (In 2008 in Nevada, it did so well that Paul supporters controlled the state convention, and were kept from walking off with all the Delegates only by its being abruptly shut down before the votes were announced.)(7)
In Minnesota, Paul was a strong second in the preference poll, with 27% (up from 16% in 2008). However, AP gives him no Delegates from the state.(3) Meanwhile, the campaign reports that “a strong majority” of delegates elected to date are Paul supporters.(5)
Paul had his best showing yet in Maine, with over 30% in the preference poll (up from 18% in 2008), just slightly more than 100 votes behind the winner. AP gives him 10 of the state’s 21 Delegates.(3) However, once again the Paul campaign claims to have won the majority of county delegates; and the Washington Post reports that, “the libertarian-leaning Texas congressman could well sweep Maine’s 24 [D]elegates at the August Republican National Convention.”(8)
To be sure, Paul is still a long way from winning the nomination. Indeed, there may be a backlash and gangup, as there was in 2008 – when Paul received no Delegates at several state conventions (including Maine), and a mere five votes at the National Convention. The 2012 Delegate Wars, and with them the struggle for the nomination, are just beginning.
Sources
Photo: Ron Paul taking questions in Manchester, NH, 2008. Photo byBbsrock. Licensed under Creative Commons, Courtesy Wikimedia Commons.
(8) Felicia Sonmez, “Maine caucuses provide a window into Ron Paul delegate strategy,” Washington Post, Feb. 12, 2012. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/post/maine-caucuses-provide-a-window-into-ron-paul-delegate-strategy/2012/02/12/gIQARNbC9Q_blog.html
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in this article are those of George Dance only and
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“We think we’re doing pretty good” in the first stage of delegate selection, Paul told CNN – an assessment echoed by his 2012 campaign manager, John Tate. “We are confident that when all is said and done and some of these caucus states finish their process that we will end up with either a good plurality or a majority of the Delegates out of Maine, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, possibly Colorado," predicts Tate.(3)
