New Hampshire to America: Ron Paul is Electable

Texas Congressman Ron Paul scored a spectacular victory in New Hampshire, placing second in the  2012 state GOP Primary, further validating his claim of electability.  His success is sure to be a thorn in the side of mainstream media pundits who have tried to suppress Dr. Paul’s candidacy.  Media spin rooms will undoubtedly seek to downplay the significance of Paul’s victory, but the Ron Paul Revolution can no longer be ignored. 

The Paul campaign has made great strides in New Hampshire since Paul’s run in 2008.  Previously, Paul finished 5th out of 6 GOP candidates and found himself the object of ridicule by the likes of Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity.  While these philosophically neo-conservative entertainers still mock Congressman Paul, they do not deny that he is a major force to be reckoned with inside the Republican party.  In unspoken tribute to Dr. Paul, these hosts are today unwittingly advocating many of his policies that they previously laughed to scorn - such as ending the Federal Reserve and gutting various federal agencies.

Paul is seen favorably by Independents and cross-over Democrats who agree with him on his non-interventionist foreign policy and libertarian style, limited government philosophy.  This cross-party appeal makes Paul a more threatening candidate to President Obama than Mitt Romney.  Approximately 45% of New Hampshire Republicans identify themselves as either “moderate” or “liberal” and 77% of all NH Republicans identify themselves as “non-evangelical”. These demographics in the “Live Free or Die” state provided fertile soil for Paul’s libertarian message. 

This election cycle, out of the state’s 10 counties, Paul focused primarily on the southeast, around the cities of Manchester and Portsmouth.  This part of the state is home to many colleges.  Youth and independent-minded voters flock to Ron Paul. 

Rick Santorum had focused his attention on blue collar workers and Catholic conservatives in the south.  These are the same demographics that helped Pat Buchanan score an upset victory over Bob Dole in the 1996 primary.  This week the Paul campaign began airing blistering ads attacking the corrupt history of former senator Rick Santorum, hoping to pull back support the senator gained after his second place finish in Iowa.  

With limited funds and a message that has failed to resonate elsewhere, Jon Huntsman staked his entire campaign on success in New Hampshire.  Huntsman put the most money (more than $740,000) into television advertising, nearly double the next candidate. It remains to be seen whether or not his third place finish here will be enough to help him succeed anywhere else.  Huntsman is widely assumed to be a one-state wonder.  The former Utah governor is even currently trailing comedian Stephen Colbert in South Carolina polls.

With an endorsement from the influential Manchester Union Leader, Newt Gingrich surged in November – only to sink again in the polls.  Gingrich’s strategy here was to try to slow Romney’s momentum going into South Carolina. 

Rick Perry made the costly mistake of skipping New Hampshire.  If he doesn’t place in the top three in South Carolina, his campaign is over.   

New Hampshire was Romney territory.  He owns a summer home in the state and has spent considerable time campaigning here since he lost to John McCain in 2008 by only 3 percentage points.  Though first place went to Romney, a significant victory by Paul cannot be denied.  He has risen from obscurity to become an unstoppable political powerhouse.  Paul has already knocked off Michelle Bachmann, mortally wounded Rick Perry and pummeled Newt Gingrich back down from his November-December surge.  It is recognized that, aside from Mitt Romney, Congressman Paul is the only candidate with the financial resources to wage a nationwide campaign at this point.

Consider Paul’s long-term strategy.  He did extremely well in the Iowa Caucuses and placed second in New Hampshire.  Admittedly, South Carolina is an early problem for Paul.  Historically, South Carolinians favor politicians with aggressive foreign policy positions and who tend to inject religious overtones into their speeches.  Though Paul is a committed Christian, he does not wear his religion on his sleeve for political advantage – and it has cost him some support.  The most recent Real Clear Politics Average shows Ron Paul in a distant 4th place. However, he still has a week and a half before the SC Primary.  His momentum coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire may be enough to boost him into 3rd place contention.

Ten days after South Carolina is the winner-take-all Florida Primary.  With Paul trailing in 4th place, he has wisely chosen not to spend considerable time or money in the state.  Instead, Paul has been working to build a strong organization in Nevada, another caucus state.  Paul generally has performed better in caucus states compared to primary states.  Fortunately for the Paul campaign, following the February 4th caucus in Nevada are caucuses in Maine, Colorado and Minnesota. There are three additional state primaries in February, followed by the Washington state caucus on March 3rd.  Then comes infamous Super Tuesday, when 10 more states hold caucuses and primaries on March 6th.  Beyond Super Tuesday, Paul’s campaign is the only viable alternative to Romney’s.

Following the results of the New Hampshire Primary, Paul’s National Campaign Chairman, Jesse Benton, called on the other candidates to drop out of the race and throw their support behind Ron Paul.  He said:

“Ron Paul has won more votes in Iowa and New Hampshire than any candidate but Mitt Romney. Ron Paul and Mitt Romney have been shown in national polls to be the only two candidates who can defeat Barack Obama. And Ron Paul and Mitt Romney are the only two candidates who can run a full, national campaign, competing in state after state over the coming weeks and months. Ron Paul’s fundraising numbers — over $13 million this quarter — also prove he will be able to compete with Mitt Romney. No other candidate can do all of these things.

“Ron Paul is clearly the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney as the campaign goes forward. We urge Ron Paul’s opponents who have been unsuccessfully trying to be the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney to unite by getting out of the race and uniting behind Paul’s candidacy.”

Even if Paul were to ultimately lose the nomination, his winning strategy will have put him in the position of having a significant impact on forming the new party platform at the August 2012 Republican National Convention in Tampa, Florida. 

While the apportionment of convention delegates varies from one state caucus or primary to the next, Paul’s basic strategy is to earn enough delegates to stuff the convention with his supporters.  As was thoroughly demonstrated in the 2008 cycle, Paul supporters are savvy in their knowledge of parliamentary rules and procedures.  Paul’s delegates to the National Convention will capitalize on this knowledge to inject the Texas congressman’s constitutional-based philosophy into platform debate and plank development. 

Paul is seeking to change the very heart of the Republican Party and return it to its conservative roots – less government and more personal liberty.  While the mainstream media support coalesces around Mitt Romney, the voters of New Hampshire have sent a powerful message to America: the race is far from over.  Ron Paul is on the rise.


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Jake Morphonios has worked as a political consultant and campaign strategist for over two decades and is the author of “Organizing a Grassroots Political Machine”, used in the Steve Forbes 2000 Presidential campaign.

  

Other Articles by Jake Morphonios:

Huge Victory for Ron Paul in New Hampshire Debate

The Real Dirt on Slick Rick Santorum

The Dirty Details of Newt Gingrich’s Marital Infidelity


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Comments

  1. says

    Thank you, New Hampshire! for validating our man of liberty! I am so happy to share the joy of living in the USA at this moment with you! President Paul will be the gold sword of justice that will restore our rights and end these immoral wars. Thank you.

  2. Natschultz says

    Huntsman was either drunk or delusional during his speech.  Seriously, I have never seen anything so out of touch in my entire life!  “A ticket to ride?”

    HA!  39% of Hunstman support came from “liberals who APPROVE of Obama!”  And, he stole John McCain’s “Country First” signs from 2008!  Yeah, that guy sure does have a really impressive campaign organization! 

    Ron Paul’s speech was AWESOME!  His best yet!  Does anyone know if it was off-the-cuff or a teleprompter?

    I actually switched between all the cable news channels, and chose to watch the speeches on CNN because they had South Carolina voters dialing during each speech.  Overall Paul scored the highest, only falling below neutral exactly when he talked about pulling out of foreign wars.  He actually scored off-the-chart at some points discussing the spending / debt issue.  His monetary policy and LIBERTY portions actually scored very high!

    Later, after all the speeches they spoke to the SC undecided voters, and Huntsman gained 2 supporters, Gingrich and Santorum 2-3, Ron Paul at least 10, and the same for Romney.  Perry received zero SC support.  That was undecided voters who do not agree with his foreign policy!!!  That speech was so uplifting and uniting!!!  Oddly, one guy was stuck between choosing Gingrich and Paul because he liked the “Liberty” message.  I only caught a few second’s of Newt’s speech, and it sounded very positive and uniting, so that probably caused the guy’s confusion.  Oh, and save for the one Ron Paul guy who said he’d vote for Obama (???) if Paul is not nominated, all the other people were older, 40+.

    Fox News had Sarah Palin on, and she was not thrilled with Romney, but she was starting to praise Ron Paul’s success, and that was exactly when Huntsman started giving his speech, so they cut Palin off.  I was switching between networks, but I never saw her come back, even though they said she would.

  3. Natschultz says

    Florida is winner-take-all?  How is that possible?  I thought ONLY primaries AFTER April First are winner-take-all?

    Seriously, if that is the case he should ignore Florida 100%.  If the delegatres are distributed, this time is different than 2008, and I’d go there and hold a few big rallies in the big cities, and do a some adverts and mailings in the Panhandle (populist conservative).  I would NOT waste and money advertising in the rest of the state because it is too expensive.  But, you don’t want Floridians to not vote for Paul because they feel like he dissed them, so a few big rallies are to his benefit.

  4. SlammoFandango says

    It’s all about getting enough delegates for the nomination. This race hasn’t even really started yet because somebody needs to get over 1400 delegates before anyone can say a candidate is the nominee.  Right now, Romney has less than a one percent lead in the over-all race toward gaining enough delegates for the nomination.

  5. says

    Of course Paul is the most electable. Independents are a plurality in the general election, and Paul won among them in New Hampshire and Iowa. He also won among Democrats. Ergo, he must be more electable than Romney, who lost to him in those “general election” categories.

    The only time the Republicans win decisively, it’s with “unelectable” platforms of American Conservatism. When the Republicans lose decisvely, it’s always with a “moderate”:

    Paul would win a in landslide akin to the TEA Party, the Contract with America, and Ronald Reagan.

    Romney will lose in a landslide akin to John McCain, and Bob Dole.

    Here is a good article summarizing this argument:

    Ron Paul in the General Election

  6. Jo Bailey says

    Ron Paul #2 in NH … Democratic Primary!by bill_mcgonigle • 2012/01/12 • Uncategorized • 3 CommentsEverybody already knows that Ron Paul placed second in the New Hampshire 2012 Republican Presidental Primary.   But, at 7 o’clock tonight, the New Hampshire Secretary of State published the full results of the primary, including write-ins, and Ron Paul also won the #2 spot in the Democratic Primary.To be sure, sitting President Barack Obama bested Paul with a 49,480 to 2,273 tally, but that Ron Paul placed so highly in rank tells us a few things.  First, nearly twenty-three hundred New Hampshire voters got out and drove to a polling station, knowing they were going to cast a write-in vote, knowing that it was in a primary where no delegates could be assigned to write-in votes, but as a straight protest vote.

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