Stage Set for Battle of the Non-Romneys in New Hampshire
Recent New Hampshire polling is analyzed with just one day left before the first-in-the-nation Primary. Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, Newt Gingrich, and Rick Santorum are the major non-Romney contenders. by Fearless Citizen
(libertarian)
Monday, January 9, 2012
Final polling results are coming in just prior to the Tuesday Primary in New Hampshire. Several polling sources have been analyzed by calculating a 3-poll moving average (see graph). Recent polls from PPP, Suffolk/7News, WMUR/UNH, Rasmussen Reports, NBC News/Marist, and Washington Times/JZ Analytics are included in the calculation of averages.
Amongst the non-Romney candidates, results through January 8th show that Ron Paul is holding on to a strong 2nd place, averaging 18.3%, with no indication that he is giving up any ground. His strong performances in the televised debates on Saturday evening and Sunday morning will likely give him a boost just prior to the Primary. He continues to hold true to his policies displaying a consistency that is resonating with voters and especially the all-so-important Independent/Non-affiliated voters in New Hampshire. The stong freedom-loving streak that runs in New Hampshire is showing through with serious support for Ron Paul.
Jon Huntsman has gained 2 to 3 percentage points after a recent slump in his polling numbers and his increase appears to be at Mitt Romney's expense. Hunstsman has spent significantly more time in New Hampshire than all the other candidates but appears to have a ceiling of around 12.7% where he currently sits.
The expected "bump" for Rick Santorum received from his performance in the Iowa Caucus has now peaked and has actually fallen back to 10.0%. His heavy "Social Conservative" slant does not appear to have convincing support in New Hampshire and it appears that he may experience a further decrease in support by January 10th.
Newt Gingrich's slide from a near-25% point peak has crashed to 9.7%, clearly showing that his support was soft. His decrease comes in the face of significant pressure from the media and the influential advertising directed at him during the campaign for Iowa.
With just one day before New Hampshire votes, Romney appears to have the top spot and Ron Paul is expected to maintain his 2nd place standing with some potential to see a surge before the 10th. Huntsman, Santorum, and Gingrich are fighting it out for the 3rd spot. Anything less than a 3rd place finish will likely kill any momentum for these trailing candidates going into South Carolina.
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