Johnson's switch from the GOP to the Libertarians is good news for both parties. by George Dance
(libertarian)
Sunday, January 8, 2012
“I am liberated,” Gary Johnson declared on December 28. That was the day the former Republican Governor of New Mexico, who had been officially running for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination since last April, abandoned his quest and announced that he would seek the Libertarian Party nomination instead.(1)
While a lifelong Republican, Johnson has also been a member of the Libertarian Party since his time as Governor in the 1990s. For almost as long, there have been Libertarian efforts to draft him as its presidential candidate; efforts that only increased after 1999, when Johnson became the first incumbent governor to call for an end to the federal war on drugs and for the outright legalization of marijuana. However, until now Johnson has always rebuffed such Libertarian overtures, declaring: “"I have been a Republican my entire life. I happen to think that what I say is also very Republican."(2)
Why would a lifelong Republican, with a “very Republican” message, suddenly abandon his party? As Johnson sees it, it was the party that abandoned him. “I have been deeply disappointed by the treatment I received in the Republican nomination process,” he says. “I had hoped to lay out a real libertarian message on all the issues in the Republican contest.”(3)
That message, as he sees it, is crucial: “"We are on a verge of a financial collapse in this country” unless the federal budget is balanced immediately. "That's the only way that we can save ourselves, but we have to do it now.”(2) Yet, because Johnson was excluded from all but two of the Republican candidates’ debates, his message was going unheard:
Other candidates with no national name identification like Herman Cain, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman were allowed to participate.... Incredibly candidates with no executive experience like Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum were allowed to participate while I, a successful two-term governor with a solid record of job creation, was arbitrarily excluded by elitist media organizations in New York. My appeals to the Republican National Chairman for basic fairness were ignored.(1)
Only once did Republicans intercede with the media regarding Johnson: in September, when he participated in a Fox News debate. However, in that case, incredibly, the Florida Republican Party objected to his being included.(4) “It is clear,” Johnson concludes from the entire experience, “that the elite national media and the political ‘ruling class’ don’t want this message heard. It frightens them.”(3)
Johnson’s party switch may mean the end of his political career, but it means good news for both the Libertarian and Republican parties. For the Libertarians, it gives them a higher profile candidate than ever before. Through the new millennium, the party has seen a continuing improvement in its candidates’ resumes. In 2008 it nominated a former Congressman (Bob Barr) for only the second time in its history. (Ron Paul was the first, back in 1988.) Running a former governor in 2012 would only continue that trend.
While Johnson is polling in the low single digits, that is no handicap to the Libertarians (who have yet to top 1% in a presidential race). And his support is much higher in New Mexico, the one state where he is known. A December 20 Public Policy Polling survey, featuring a hypothetical matchup against Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, found Johnson polling 23% in the state as a Libertarian.(5)
Johnson’s switch is also good news for the libertarian faction in the Republican party, where Ron Paul has also been seeking the nomination. Even before either of the two had declared as candidates, there were widespread concerns “that Johnson’s presence in the race could foil a repeat of Paul’s 2008 success by splitting the liberty-leaning vote in the Republican primary.”(6) Those concerns led some Paul supporters to bash Johnson starting the day he declared, another possible reason his Republican bid went nowhere.(7) With Johnson out of the GOP race, libertarian Republicans can close ranks behind Paul, and they are now doing so. On December 30, just two days after Johnson’s withdrawal, the Republican Liberty Caucus endorsed Paul for the nomination.(8)
The day of the Iowa caucus vote, Johnson himself called for his Republican supporters to vote for Paul.(9) That endorsement meant little in Iowa (where Paul came in third with 21%), a socially conservative state which Johnson had written off early. It will probably be more crucial in New Hampshire, a state which has little use for social conservatism, and where Johnson had concentrated the bulk of his campaign efforts. Significantly, Johnson’s New Hampshire organizers are now working for the Paul campaign.(10)
But what about the general election? If Paul and Johnson both win their parties’ nominations, there could be a conflict. However, worries about that are purely speculative. Paul is in the fight of his life for the nomination, but he remains far behind Romney in both poll numbers and fundraising dollars. “While Ron Paul is a good man and a libertarian who I proudly endorsed for president in 2008,” Johnson insists, “there is no guarantee he will be the Republican nominee.”(1)
After Paul lost the 2008 nomination, his supporters scattered to the four winds: some voting for McCain, some for Obama, a few for a third party, many just writing in Paul’s name. For advocates of the rEVOLution, that election turned out to be an opportunity squandered. If that mistake is to be avoided this year, the freedom movement needs a supportable alternative. As Ron Paul himself says, Gary Johnson is the best alternative in sight.(11)
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Sources
Photo: Former Governor of New Mexico Gary Johnson answering an audience member's question at a Campaign for Liberty event at CPAC, Feb. 19, 2010. Photo by Gage Skidmore. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic (CC-BY-SA-2.0) License. Courtesy Wikimedia Commons. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Gary_Johnson1.jpg
(4) “Gary Johnson to Participate in National GOP Debate,” The Note, ABC News, Sep. 20, 2011. http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/09/gary-johnson-invited-to-participate-in-his-first-national-gop-debate/
(5) “Gary Johnson polls at 20% in NM as a LIbertarian | United Liberty,” GD’s Political Animal, Dec. 20, 2011. http://gdspoliticalanimal.blogspot.com/2011/12/gary-johnson-polls-at-20-in-nm-as.html
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Johnson’s party switch may mean the end of his political career, but it means good news for both the Libertarian and Republican parties. For the Libertarians, it gives them a higher profile candidate than ever before. Through the new millennium, the party has seen a continuing improvement in its candidates’ resumes. In 2008 it nominated a former Congressman (Bob Barr) for only the second time in its history. (Ron Paul was the first, back in 1988.) Running a former governor in 2012 would only continue that trend.