Topic: Ron Paul
What We Really Learned From Iowa Some interesting observations and lessons I have taken from Iowa, and some predictions for New Hampshire. Amongst these observations is an educated guess of the current size of the Ron Paul Revolution.*by The Fugue, a.k.a. Russ Fugal
(libertarian)
Friday, January 4, 2008
First, I would like to reiterate what CT Johnson has said,
"Things could not have turned out better for Congressman Ron Paul in Iowa... "Folks...This is a marathon...not a sprint. Wait and see...the Ron Paul movement will continue to grow."
It will continue to grow because of you and I. Now, here are some interesting observations and lessons I have taken from Iowa, and some predictions for New Hampshire. Amongst these observations is an educated guess of the current size of the Revolution.*
Second, I would like to add a link to Jafre Fire Eater's column this morning here. The purpose of this column is to interpret what we learned from Iowa, Jafre does an excellent job of explaining what we need to do about it.
Straw Polls (offline)
There were two straw polls in Iowa listed on the RonPaul2008 website, Ames and Iowa City. Ames did better at caucus than at the straw poll (12.1% vs. 9.1%) and Iowa City did worse (15.2% vs. 25.9%). From this we can gather... that straw polls don’t tell us anything. But they are not frivolous indicators to ignore, they are ballpark figures.
Straw Polls (online)
Ok, I’ll only mention one. The AOL straw poll. Given the number of Iowans who caucused for Ron Paul and the number of Iowans who voted in the AOL Straw Poll for Ron Paul, only 15% of Iowan Revolutionaries voted online. Project that number across the nation and we currently have close to 600,000 Ron Paulites.
Bad news... that’s not enough. Good news... we are on the rise, we have reason and freedom behind us, and we still have a long marathon to run. Most heartening is that, contrary to MSM spin, we are larger not smaller than our online presence, and we’re only going to grow.
The South-Eastern Bloc
There were 6 neighboring counties in south-eastern Iowa in which Ron Paul finishes at least 3rd. At the center was Jefferson County which went to Ron Paul. My friends, this is grassroots that needs to be recognized. There are 2 Meetup groups in the 6 county bloc, with a total of 67 members, who got 650 people out to caucus for Ron Paul. If all of our Meetups were that successful we would be 850,000 strong as of today. Still, THAT’S NOT ENOUGH. But we are growing.
Thru out Iowa’s 99 counties Ron Paul finished 1st in 1, 2nd in 4, and 3rd in 11. In Osceola County Ron Paul finished 2nd behind Huckabee, behind by only 12 votes (25% to 30%).
Stand Up, and Stop Complaining
Freedom is ours for the taking, but it is still out of our reach. Don’t expect the MSM to suddenly change their opinions when we embarrass them in New Hampshire. They will continue to deny fair coverage and you can expect smears and attacks. Don’t expect the Revolution to suddenly take root because we are finally a viable movement according to the MSM. We must double our efforts, and double them again. Get out and talk to everybody you can, face to face.
We are not destined to become another Dean for America, we are destined to leave an inheritance of freedom for our children. By all means, vote with your wallet. But don’t think that alone will bring change. Canvass your precinct, watch the vote, be part of the process if you can, and help Ron Paul raise the additional $23 million he has asked for by Super Duper Tuesday.
New Hampshire
Again, the Paul campaign lists straw polls in two New Hampshire counties. Based on these polls and the results from Iowa, I expect that we will see at least 30% in Hillsborough County and 35% in Strafford County.* I expect we will win or be close to winning these counties, but earn a respectable 3rd thru out the state with 15%. But do not be disheartened, the race does not go to the swift or the strong... this is a marathon.
*Projections based on the assumption of an accurate vote count.
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I thought you might like some cheery spins on the Iowa news. After looking through the results on a county by county basis in Iowa, a few things are clear. Ron Paul always beat Giuliani and Hunter in EVERY county. Ron Paul won 2 delegates and they won none. Huckabee only won 17 delegates. And Republicans in Iowa like Huckabee. A lot. Huckabee won MOST counties. But occasionally Romney would win a county from Huckabee. But what I bet you did not know was that the only candidate to win an Iowa County other than Huckabee and Romney was Ron Paul. Ron Paul came in second in a few counties, but actualy WON one county. McCain and Thompson did not win a single county. In fact I do not think McCain and Thompson came in second in ANY counties. The delicious irony is that the name of the county where Ron Paul won was Jefferson County! (Results are available on the CNN web site. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#IA) You gotta love it. I thought you might like to hear this.
I'm not an Iowan, and I voted for Ron Paul in the AOL straw poll. Recall, the poll relied upon everyone's honesty. So when asked what state I lived in, I said Iowa because Arizona is an irrelevant state this time of year. Zing! I had cast my vote for Ron Paul, and thus was part of the great, riggable Iowa straw poll. Trust me, there are a lot of Ron Paul supporters on the net--and we vote the heck out of those stupid, 1990s era online polls. Not that traditional polling--calling up landlines of people who like being pigeonholed--is any better.
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