There is only one path that leads to a Paul presidency. This is it. by Jake Morphonios
(libertarian)
Friday, December 16, 2011
Ron Paul supporters are both the most enthusiastic political conversationalists and the most annoying. If you’ve ever met one of us, you know what I mean. If you accidentally strike up a casual political conversation with a Paul supporter, expect to be given an intense lecture on ending the Federal Reserve, bringing US troops home, abolishing the Department of Education (yeah, that’s how Ron Paul rolls), staying out of the internal affairs of other nations, and, by the way, prepare to be told how the mainstream media (MSM) conspires to ignore Ron Paul!
You see, it’s that last issue that I’ve been telling my cohorts to shut up about. Strategically, it isn’t wise to attract too much attention from the MSM too early. As a former campaign manager and political strategist, I’ve learned that timing is (almost) everything during primary season. Most folks will agree that the MSM, more so than the American people, chooses our candidates for us. It’s an unfair game they play, but it has always worked this way. Here’s how it goes:
The MSM will tell us who our front runner is. The fact that a candidate hasn’t even entered the race yet is meaningless. George W. Bush had been crowned the winner of the Republican primary by the MSM over half a year before he even declared his candidacy in the 2000 election cycle. In that particular campaign, I worked as a state campaign manager for Steve Forbes. I remember driving Mr. Forbes to the South Carolina Republican Presidential debate in Columbia. I met the other candidates, Keyes, McCain, Hatch, Bauer, but I understood the inevitability of Bush winning the nomination. The MSM had chosen their man.
You don’t believe that the MSM has that kind of power? Then please tell me who tricked the Republican Party into accepting John McCain as the nominee.
Yes, the MSM game is not only unfair, but it can be downright vicious. Just look at what it has done to this year’s slate of Republican candidates. Romney? The MSM doesn’t want to attack him (not yet, anyway). Up until a few years ago, he was a pro-choice, big government liberal. Romney is the MSM’s choice for the Republicans this year. You can take that to the bank. So the MSM has to go after other candidates. Before they can do that, they have to first build them up.
Question: Who made Michelle Bachmann out to be the “smart” version of Sarah Palin and helped vault her into the spotlight? Answer: The same people who turned around and put a terribly unflattering photo of her on the cover of Newsweek magazine.
Question: Who said Rick Perry was going to shine his boots with Mitt Romney and promoted him to front runner status even before his campaign started? Answer: The same people who found 1,000 ways to parody the infamous “oops heard round the world.”
Question: Who took the political (and verbal) ignoramus, Herman Cain, and turned him into an overnight superstar? Answer: The same people who flushed out a string of money-grubbing opportunists to destroy him.
Question: Who has made the most hated Republican in modern history, Newt Gingrich, the most talked about man in politics today? Answer: The same people who destroyed Newt Gingrich politically once before. If you don’t remember the days of “The Gingrich Who Stole Christmas” in the mid 90’s, you’ll just have to trust me. The MSM walloped him once, and they are getting ready to do it again.
Question: Who has made Rick Santorum look intelligent and charming? Answer: That was a trick question. Nobody can make Santorum look intelligent and charming. But I digress.
My Republican friends just don’t see this pattern. From one month to the next, they change who they are supporting. These are the same people who were hoping that Governor Chris Christie would enter the race without knowing anything about him. Christie is as much a liberal as Romney. Try paying a little more attention to his political actions and less attention to his cool verbal flourishes and you’ll see what I mean. My point is, too many Republicans get swept from one candidate to another – not realizing that they are blindly falling into the MSM trap.
This brings me back to Ron Paul.
Congressman Paul has one shot to get this right. I wrote several columns about his narrow path to victory in the last election cycle. But the path remains the same this time. Ron Paul must place first in either Iowa or New Hampshire. If he doesn’t his chances of going on to win the nomination are next to zero, and he knows it. Because of this, Paul has “gone all in” in Iowa by spending hundreds of thousands in advertising and building an impressive grassroots machine.
In order to win Iowa, Paul must have enough people willing to brave the bitter cold of January in Iowa to attend one of over 2,000 state caucuses. I’m certain that my fellow Paul supporters will be the most dedicated on caucus night. But they can’t win Iowa for him alone. An embarrassing number of voters enter the caucuses without their minds made up. They waffle until the last minute. During the caucuses, voters gather to make their preferences known. They debate and attempt to sway each other to support their own candidates. To win Iowa, Ron Paul caucus goers must be able to sway enough Newt-Romney supporters to change their votes.
As I wrote at the beginning, Paul supporters can debate rings around their opponents, but in the end, a voter will not change their mind to support a candidate if they think it would be too unpopular to do so! And who tells the voters who is popular and who isn’t? That’s right – the MSM.
Ron Paul is peaking at almost the right time. The reason I’ve been telling my associates all along that we don’t want much MSM coverage is because once the MSM has latched on to its new front runner, it then proceeds to vilify him. With Paul being a “fringe” candidate in most Republican’s minds as it is, the last thing Paul needs is for Iowa caucus goers to watch Paul made to look like a clown just before they go to vote. Paul supporters can sway Newt-Romney voters on caucus night, but only if the MSM hasn’t poisoned their minds with anti-Paul sentiment.
The truth is that no MSM coverage for Paul is better than bad coverage. I would have preferred for Paul to begin to peak about 10 days from now – before the MSM has had time to grow tired of his notoriety. Unfortunately, he is peaking about two weeks early. Evidence is growing that my prediction is right. Today, for example, a rash of media outlets have again dug up the notorious “Ron Paul Newsletters” and are brandishing them to try to make Paul out to be racist, bigoted and anti-Semitic. Make no mistake, with three weeks to go before Iowa, the MSM has ample time to damage Paul and kill his chance for victory if they grow bored with him.
If Paul finishes first in Iowa, he stands a remote chance of using that momentum to win New Hampshire. A second place win in Iowa could do the same. Third place for Paul in Iowa would require a miracle to put him back into contention. Sorry, that’s just how this dumb primary process works. You’ll see Santorum, Huntsman, and possibly Perry drop out before Florida. Early state victories and strong finishes provide fuel to continue deeper into the primary season.
The reason that it is so crucial for Paul to place in first or second in Iowa and New Hampshire is because it’s all downhill from there. Following on the heels of these two states are South Carolina and Florida. Even with first or second place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, Paul will be hard pressed to place third in South Carolina and even less likely for a third place showing in Florida. By Super Tuesday, it will be clear that Paul will not be able to win enough delegates to secure the party nomination (unless there is a chance for a brokered convention) and the effort to draft Paul as an Independent candidate begins.
This isn’t what my fellow Ron Paul supporters want to hear. I hated to break hearts in the last election with the hard truth, and it is no more enjoyable this time. As I’ve been predicting for months, I expect a thin 1st place or close 2nd place victory for Ron Paul in Iowa, a 2nd place finish in New Hampshire, a distant 3rd, possibly 4th place in South Carolina and a 4th place or lower in Florida (unless Governor Rick Perry has dropped out by the Florida primary). Paul’s only chance of winning the party nomination is if Romney somehow falls out of favor with the MSM, and that is unlikely to happen. Ultimately, after what is going to prove to be a very long primary season between Romney and Gingrich, Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination.
I share this with my fellow Paul supporters, not to discourage you, but so that you will not be discouraged when things don’t go the way you are hoping. I’ve been involved with presidential campaigns for over 25 years. I know how the system works. What we need to focus on is to use these primaries to gain name recognition for Ron Paul and then ignite his run as an Independent. Paul is retiring from Congress this year. I believe he wants to go out with a bang the way he did when he retired from Congress in the 80s and ran for president as a Libertarian. He can’t say that publicly now, because it would undermine his current run. But one thing you will learn about Ron is that he cares about the long-term, big picture.
We can do so much good for our country by riding Ron Paul’s coattails. More than wanting to be president, Ron Paul is fighting to educate the country. There must be a fundamental shift in our collective thinking to save our nation from self-implosion. Paul understands that even if he were elected president, he can do little to change things in America without the legislative action of Congress. President Paul could not talk the legislative branch into enacting his kinds of radical reforms unless he had the wide support of the American people behind him. It’s our job to get him that support.
To my friends who have been long-time supporters of Ron Paul, you know that I’m right. To the newest Paul supporters among you, we need you to keep your passion and motivation levels up well beyond South Carolina and Florida. Don’t let the distant finishes of South Carolina and Florida discourage you. This movement is just about winning a presidency. It’s about educating and converting an entire nation.
Now get back to work. We’ve got some primaries to win.
Jake Morphonios has worked as a political consultant and campaign strategist for over two decades and is the author of Organizing a Grassroots Political Machine, used in the Steve Forbes 2000 Presidential campaign.
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