As the Iowa caucuses loom, Ron Paul is now making his move, closing in on the leader in the polls. Public Policy polling shows Paul one point behind with just under three weeks to go. by Walt Thiessen
(libertarian)
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Has Newt Gingrich's skyrocket begun to fall prematurely? It is beginning to look like it, at least from the Gingrich point-of-view. From Ron Paul's point-of-view, it's happening at the perfect moment. A new poll released yesterday by Public Policy Polling shows that Paul has caught the former speaker and is in a virtual dead heat with him as the Iowa caucuses get closer.
Public Policy's own press release leads off with the following pronouncement: "There has been some major movement in the Republican Presidential race in Iowa over the last week, with what was a 9 point lead for Newt Gingrich now all the way down to a single point. Gingrich is at 22% to 21% for Paul with Mitt Romney at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry at 9%, Rick Santorum at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 5%, and Gary Johnson at 1%." This, of course, is not unexpected to the rank-and-file of the Ron Paul Revolution, but it is very bad news for the former Speaker of the House.
The slippage appears largely to be due to hard-hitting ads by the Paul campaign and by other candidates in the race. Says Public Policy, "Gingrich has dropped 5 points in the last week and he's also seen a significant decline in his favorability numbers. Last week he was at +31 (62/31) and he's now dropped 19 points to +12 (52/40). The attacks on him appear to be taking a heavy toll- his support with Tea Party voters has declined from 35% to 24%."
The Paul campaign can take credit for a large portion of this drop, due to a TV ad they released that can be seen on YouTube.
The ad brutally brings to the fore the tremendous conflicts, flip-flops, and inconsistencies within the Gingrich message over the years, and it appears to be working.
Of particular note is the fact that this is the first important poll to show Paul with a percentage over 20%. That is very significant because the most common reason for political operatives, talking heads, and opposition representatives to reject the idea that Paul can win the presidency is their claim that he only appeals to libertarian-leaning voters. By most accounts, these account for roughly 10-15% of the overall population. By breaking the 20% glass ceiling, Paul is showing that he has strength and appeals to non-libertarians as well. His reach among independents consistently beats out his Republican opponents, and the results of this poll only reinforce that conclusion.
The Public Policy poll summary notes, "Paul meanwhile has seen a big increase in his popularity from +14 (52/38) to +30 (61/31). There are a lot of parallels between Paul's strength in Iowa and Barack Obama's in 2008- he's doing well with new voters, young voters, and non-Republican voters:"
It is becoming increasingly clear that the question of whether Paul will win Iowa will come down to how effective his Iowa team is at getting young voters to the caucuses. Other publications have correctly pointed out that this is no small task. Young voters typically have much poorer voting rates than their older counterparts. However, the Paul campaign is so big, so well-managed, and so effective in Iowa (one political operative described the Paul Iowa headquarters as smaller than Gingrich's but "buzzing with activity"), that it becomes quite possible...perhaps even likely...that the Iowa team will get those young voters there.
Certainly, the turnouts at Paul's events at the various colleges in Iowa must be extremely rewarding to the candidate and have fueled optimism within his campaign. Turnouts in the thousands for a single event have become the norm, rather than the exception. The campaign has placed a heavy emphasis on smaller venue appearances, but even in those cases the rooms have been packed wall to wall.
This is retail politicking at its finest, and if Paul's Iowa team kicks it into high gear over the next 20 days, he will win the Iowa caucuses.
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