Topic: Presidential Campaign 2008
Ron Paul Baffles Media In Iowa Ron Paul's modest yet solid primary in Iowa confounds critics and rivals who called him nothing more than a spoiler.by Abelardo Arias
(Libertarian)
Friday, January 4, 2008
Many of Ron Paul's dedicated supporters expected the ten-term Congressman (R-TX) to break into third place in the small state of Iowa on January 3rd. That did not happen.
Many in the media expected Ron Paul's internet superstar status to fade away into an irrelevant and dismal showing of real-life votes. They waited to chuckle along with politician-turned-journalist George Stephanopoulos at the audaciousness of a 72-year old Congressman daring to take on the pro-war establishment with only populist support but nary a word for the Good Ole Boys Party. But that did not happen either.
What happened was a small victory for the sleeping America that has long turned off the television news or clicked to the Sports webpage rather than read about the presidential race, the quagmire in the Middle East or the failing American dollar.
Ron Paul walked into midwestern America where his non-interventionist positions were anathema, where Christianity is pandered like cheap QVC commercials and where downsizing government makes heavily corn-subsidized citizens nervous. That is where Ron Paul trounced his perpetual critic Rudy Giuliani and fellow debate non-participator Duncan Hunter.
Dr. Paul, persona non-grata to the national media machine and the subject of unjustified name-calling, managed to capture one of out ten votes in the Iowan GOP caucus, only mere points behing the comeback-kid John McCain and the man who can't wait for the opportunity to announce he isn't running anymore: Fred Thompson. Additionally, according to CNN, Ron Paul has secured 2 of out the 40 Iowa delegates to the GOP National Convention. How many did Rudy get?
Welcome to the big leagues, Dr. Paul.
His was no small feat. FOX News recently decided not to include Ron Paul in its New Hampshire debates due to Paul's low single-digit polling. A recent Des Moines Register poll found Paul had the support of about 9 percent of the state's likely caucus goers (Source; Houston Chronicle). Ron Paul pulled 10 percent of the votes on Jan. 3. Fred Thompson's lackluster campaign trolled at 9 percent in the same poll. The Law and Order star surprisingly got 13 percent of the GOP vote and sent pro-war-on-everyone John McCain back to New Hampshire for his self-perceived Fortress of Solitude.
What does this mean? It means that no matter which way FOX News and the MSM wish to dice it, Paul's 9 percent was not low polling in a wide open race with his cross-party appeal. One of out of ten Iowans in the GOP actually voted (in real life) for Ron Paul.
He achieved this in spite of his views contrary to the neo-conservative wing of the GOP. He convinced 10% of caucus voters to resist the pressure to vote for the Christian candidate with sugar-coated Christmas messages and a past as baptist minister. (Incidentally, Huck-a-Bible's pastoral resume was conveniently buried by the supposed accidental loss of his old sermon tapes.)
Ron Paul brought in real substantial votes on Jan. 3. The man deserves to be heard in every debate from here on out.
Fast forward to New Hampshire. A recent CNN/WMUR poll shows Paul polling at 7 percent trailing Huckabee by only 3 percentage points (Source: Houston Chronicle). Thompson is hovering at an alarming 2 percent and may skip the Live Free or Die State altogether for friendlier primary states. Rudy is running out of money. All three of these "top tier" candidates are invited to the New Hampshire Debate. Ron Paul is not.
Meanwhile other candidates are dropping like flies. Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) bowed out of the race tonight (source: campaign e-mail I received) with a depressing 0.4% caucus vote. Dennis Kucinich will continue his lonely anti-establishment campaign with little money and less media exposure. Joe Biden might wait for a cabinet post position before bowing out. Bill Richardson looks all but finished.
When Duncan Hunter bows out of the race he joins Tom Tancredo as a one-issue candidate rallying a national base. Hopefully, Hunter won't blindly endorse Mitt Romney as Tancredo did. He might be mindful of the fact that Romney out-Tancredo'd Tancredo on immigration just as Romney methodically focus-grouped himself into every possibly palatable conservative position. But Ron Paul is the real deal. His conservative views are consistent. Anti-immigration leaders in Iowa endorsed Paul as their candidate. Was the media listening?
Mike Huckabee's surprising win in Iowa is easy to decipher. The man was an evangelical Christian who is an outsider to the Washington machine. He might even support the Fair Tax, which has won him support. Homeschoolers (present homeschooling author not included) consider Huckabee their patron saint, in spite of his anti-homeschooling legislation as Arkansas Governor. Huckabee is a non-issue in New Hampshire. The fight for first place belongs to Romney and John McCain.
The GOP nomination race is a wide-open contest. Romney's people are crushed tonight. The night belongs to Mike Huckabee for the coveted first spot, and Fred Thompson for the coveted third spot.
Ron Paul's supporters were expecting better but still encouraged that he secured 10 percent. Watch the MSM spin this one as a sorry disappointment for Paul supporters failing to get third in Iowa. So many millions of dollars gone to waste! But don't hold your breath for the MSM to correct itself for consistently and groundlessly claiming that Paul could never win. Already, the naysayers are counting Paul out in spite of his strong showing in Iowa and fundraising records by insisting that he simply cannot win the GOP nomination. Talk about putting the cart before the horse.
Even Rudy tried this tactic of boxing in Paul who kindly returned the favor by giving him a CIA history lesson on blowback. While Rudy demanded that Paul apologize in the debates, Rudy made no mention of the brave police officers and firefighters of 9/11 claiming that "America's Mayor" did not properly support them and performed poorly on that dreadful morning (Source: NY Times and LA Times). So much for leadership.
But this battle is far from over. Ronald Reagan didn't give up when he lost the Iowa caucus either. Barack Obama was blasted for his inexperience and his unsavory attempt to dethrone Hillary Clinton from her rightful nomination. Well, Obama won the Myspace Presidential Primary on Jan. 2. And so did Ron Paul.
Mike Huckabee may have "I want to choke Romney" Chuck Norris. But we have the Ron Paul R[EVOL]ution. And we have only begun to fight. On to the Granite State.
Abelardo J. Arias is a Connecticut Attorney and aspiring novelist. To subscribe to his commentary e-mail group "Closing Arguments" send him an e-mail atclosing_arguments-subscribe@yahoogroups.com.
Did you like this article? If you did, Thumb It! 263 thumbs so far
2008 Abelardo Arias, all rights reserved.
Published: Friday, January 4, 2008
Last modified: Friday, January 4, 2008
The views expressed in this
article are those of Abelardo Arias only and do not represent
the views of Nolan Chart, LLC or its affiliates. Abelardo Arias is
solely responsible for the contents of this article and is not an
employee or otherwise affiliated with Nolan Chart, LLC in his/her role as a columnist.
Thank you for your encouragement...most people not familiar with this process can easily take this 5th place as a downward trend. You clarify the process well and blow wind under the Ron PaulRevolution wings.
So far I'm a Romney supporter, but I really do like Ron Paul. Actually, I think they would make a great team, in one order or the other.... Romney excels at creating synergistic solutions and Paul sticks to his principles.
Sorry Carol, but Ron Paul would never blindly support anyone. Any person who isnt blind would obviously see Romney as someone with little knowledge of monitary and foreign policy and someone who has questionable judgment. Romney has been caught in the middle of a lie on several occasions. Not only that he turns his back on sevearly sick people who's only savior is medicinal marijuana. I witnessed him turn his back and it made my stomach turn over.
What is most surprising is that Paul won among the Independents (the Key to victory in the November election) taking 29%, compared to the supposed "electable" Guiliani who took only 1%.
Even more interesting is that Paul finished in the Top 3 in 18 Iowa counties, despite the fact that he spent the least amout of time in Iowa among the major candidates - only 20 days.
And Paul was the only candidate, other than Romney or Huckabee, to take 1st place in a county.
Neither Thompson, McCain or Guiliani was able pull off that feat.
Thank you so much for this write up. Iowa was a victory for Dr. Paul with 10%. He did not do much campaigning there, but he managed to beat Giuliani big time. My prediction is Ron Paul will come in 2nd or 3rd in New Hampshire, if not 1st place. This will be devastating to Huckabeen's campaign. From what I understand the criteria that Foxnews/ABC has set for their New Hampshire Debate and Forum scheduled for this weekend is that the candidates had to receive double digits in Iowa, this would mean that Ron Paul is in and Giuliani is out right? That is what I read earlier this week. Can someone confirm this for me please.
Anyway, thanks again for this very positive piece. I have a feeling we are going to be seeing quite a bit of Ron Paul in our future. The Ron Paul Revolution is in full steam.
I'm with you buddy, and a Ron Paul supporter, but Iowa was a CAUCUS, not a PRIMARY, and you might want to change your article to reflect that. They are very different processes: a caucus requires a public stance and takes all night, whereas a primary is a secret vote that takes 30 seconds. Very different dynamics.
Our precinct gave him 16% and our organization only worked the phones for a couple of weeks prior to January 3rd. I know that we could have done much better with enough time, even with the huge handicap of nonexistent to poor media coverage and Dr. Paul's MIA status. (Iowa caucus campaigning is very up close and personal.) The lesson: WE need to get going on the ground in every state. NOW. Network with your friends and family. Make up personal letters and mail them to your friends, neighbors, and church members. Call your Ron Paul campaign office and volunteer, not just for phone banking but also to be county chairman (especially in caucus states). Don't assume that the Ron Paul campaign is going to tell you what they need. We need to be proactive. This campaign will NOT be won on the Internet. But we can and will win!
Ron Paul is the only presidential candidate that has no skeletons in the closet. He is the only candidate that absolutely knows and understands the Constitution of the United States and lives his political life accordingly. After all, it is the Supreme Law of the Land. How many other candidates have figured that out yet? Unfortunately, it appears not many.
Posted By: John B. in Florida
Date: 2008-01-04 09:24:26
I was disappointed that Ron Paul didn't take third last night. But considering the margin of difference between Paul and the third and fourth place candidates, I have to say that I am VERY WELL PLEASED!! He was only out of a third place finish by about 4,000 votes, which was not a whole lot in this contest.
What I find most interesting is how long it took for CNN to report the voting numbers. This honestly worries me... and it is the very reason people start up conspiracy theories. Why at 11:00 PM EST, when the Democrats had almost 100% reporting, did the Republicans only have 72%. The Democrats are the ones that have this very long drawn out caucus process, whereas the Republican party only has to vote and then they can leave. On the Dem side it can be a much longer process, if all the articles I read on the Dem caucus were accurate.
Why then did the republican numbers not come in first???? It seems very odd to me and leads me to believe there may have been some vote tampering going on. The other reason I speculate is because in an AOL poll that only allowed users to vote once by blocking their IP after they voted, Ron Paul was tied with Huckabee for first place, with almost 4,500 people voting in the poll. On the democratic side of the AOL poll, it was Obama, followed by Edwards, followed by Clinton, which is exactly how the vote came out. But somehow, on the Republican side, it wasn't even close to how the poll came out. Something doesn't feel right.
I kept asking my wife last night... why do they still not have the numbers for republicans. Even at Midnight last night (EST) when I went to bed, they were only reporting 84% of the votes in. What was even more odd, is that when the vote was in at 72%, there was a 3,500 vote difference between Paul and the third place finisher Thompson (who came out of nowhere). As the rest of the precincts reported, the difference never really changed, almost like someone was keeping the vote exactly even as it was.
I would love to go back and have a paper recount of all the votes cast that night. I am sorry, but I just don't trust those damn computer voting machines. I don't care what anyone says... they can be hacked... just Google Hacking Democracy and you will see just how easy it is for a vote to be rigged.
I am a true diehard Ron Paul supporter, and I am not going to let these things get me down. I am happy with Ron Paul's close to third finish and I anticipate he will do even better in New Hampshire. My gravest concern is for other Ron Paul supporters who may lose some wind because we didn't place first. Just remember, IA is only one state, and we will continue to be victorious. Remember that Bush did not win Iowa and still got elected. Keep the faith.
Last, let me close on the obvious play that the Elite of this country have made on Huckabee. It is so crystal clear in my mind that he is being propelled to first by the media that it makes me sick to my stomach how many sheep we have in this country. Wake up people, open your eyes. Oil is over $100 a barrel, $4.00 gas is on the horizon. Gold is over $850 an ounce, and the dollar is losing it's value by the day. If you think for one second that Huckabee hasn't been annointed by the elite bankers who run this country you really have another thing coming. He was hand picked because he's the only one that the Elite feel can beat Ron Paul because of how he tries to mirror Ron Paul and because of his "Christian" credentials. Huckabee had NO MONEY TO EVEN SPIT AT TV ADS after the third quarter... but somehow the media starts putting him all over the news EVERY SINGLE NIGHT and he's suddenly getting $40,000,000 worth of advertising just because the media decides he's a contender. Don't you see, the fix is in. Wake up America... before it's too late and the future of our children to grow up in the great America we once knew is dead.
There was another "irregularity" in the counting of Republican votes...I was watching the various county results come in and Ron was ahead of Rudy in every one of them, but then the state total started to be posted, and Ron was behind Rudy. I thought, how could that be??? It just didn't make any sense! For a while Rudy supposedly had 4,900+ votes, and was ahead of Ron, and then suddenly it changed to 2,700 or so, and Ron was well ahead of him, as the county by county totals had indicated he should be. I have no doubt there may have been some shenanigans going on, as it did take them many hours to report all the Republican totals. How long does it take to count a couple of hundred votes? Also, the way Ron has been ignored by the media, and even ridiculed by some of the other candidates (notably Rudy, whom he beat decisively) in the "debates," I feel he did pretty well to get 10%. They say Rudy "did not campaign" in Iowa, but he has the name recognition and has not been censored by the media like Ron Paul has been. As far as Huckabee goes, he was obviously anointed by the media a few weeks ago, and with about 60% of the Iowa caucus attendees describing themselves as "evangelical or born-again Christians" he won without really having much of anything substantial to say. In fact, he seemed to take up some of Ron Paul's campaign themes, having apparently noticed that they were quite popular. IMO, Ron Paul will do much better in New Hampshire, at least 3rd if not better. If not for all the disinformation, he would win NH for sure. And late last night on FOX news, the commentators (Greta Van Susterin, Shepard Smith, etc.) were saying that FOX should "pull up another chair" for Ron at the NH forum on Sunday. Maybe he could take Rudy's seat, since Rudy did not reach the 10% threshold...and Ron did. Fair and Balanced? Let's wait and see...
It's a very close race. As of now, I would say that the real order is (and I put why, after the name):
Romney - Money, organization, delegates
McCain - Organization, name recognition
Paul - Money, grassroots support
Huckabee - Delegate leader
Giuliani - Money, establishment
Thompson - Third in IA
Romney could go all the way. McCain may be the last man standing. Paul has money and enthusiastic support, especially out west. Huckabee proved he can win, but has no money or national organization. Giuliani has money but the establishment candidate cannot pull from across the aisle and will fall out of favor after he loses the first five primaries. And Thompson has no money, no organization, and failed to get on the ballot in DE and DC, which attests to his weak organization.
Paul doesn't need to win NH, but he can take second place from McCain if he is able to out-do McCain in New Hampshire. That would propel Paul into second place because it would constitute a win over McCain on his home turf.
Want to comment on this
article? Leave your comment here. Your email address is
required to track your comment. However, we will neither
publish your email address nor distribute it to other
organizations or persons. The only reason we might use
it would be if we needed to contact you regarding your
comment. All comments are subject to our
terms of use policy.
2008 Abelardo Arias, all rights reserved.