Ames Straw Poll: Bachmann 1st, Paul 2nd...An Analysis
An analysis of the results and situation in the GOP nomination race. by Fearless Citizen
(libertarian)
Monday, August 15, 2011
Well, it was an exciting weekend in Republican politics. The campaigns are really starting to heat up and the prime-time debate last Thursday, the Ames Straw Poll on Saturday, and the end of Pawlenty's campaign provided substantial excitement for everyone.
So now we can reflect and see what it all means. The Ames Straw Poll provided us with an interesting snapshot of how the State of Iowa feels about the GOP candidates. The results were anything but decisive with Ron Paul trailing Bachmann by a scant 152 votes, less than 1% difference. The results were as follows:
Michele Bachmann -- 4823 (28.5%)
Ron Paul ---------------- 4671 (27.6%)
Tim Pawlenty ---------- 2293 (13.6%)
Rick Santorum -------- 1657 (9.8%)
Herman Cain -----------1456 (8.6%)
Rick Perry -------------- 718 (4.3%)
Mitt Romney ----------- 567 (3.4%)
Newt Gingrich --------- 385 (2.3%)
Others - ------------------266 (1.6%)
Now, you won't hear this from the mainstream media, but from a statistical point of view, the top two, Bachmann and Paul, were essentially tied. Their campaigns clearly showing the passion of their grassroots supporters. However, it should be noted that Bachmann was leading Paul in a recent Iowa caucus poll by Rasmussen showing that Bachmann was ahead of Paul 22% to 16%. What we can take away from the straw poll result is that Ron Paul actually performed better, getting a larger portion of his support to come out and vote. This is significant and I will touch on it in more detail later at the end of this article.
As for Pawlenty, he has now decided to end his campaign so the only question that comes into play is: Where will his supporters go? Two candidates that did not participate in the straw poll will benefit the most, Romney and Perry. More will go to Romney than to Perry as Pawlenty shared a more similar platform to Romney.
Rick Perry's result in the straw poll was a win for him over Romney. The timing of his pre-announcement ("campaign leak") and the willingness of the mainstream media outlets to pump it up, helped him get a significant number of write-in votes to put him ahead of Romney. The vetting process now begins for Rick Perry and it will be interesting to see how he handles the questioning of his past association with Al Gore, a probable indicator of a "big government republican" persona, and how Independents will react to his over-the-top mass prayers.
Romney is now in a situation where he will be forced to play. He can no longer continue to direct his energy towards Obama and must begin to engage the other Republican contenders or risk showing weakness in the eyes of voters. The media is already pointing to this behavior. He will continue to be questioned on Romneycare and will be criticized regarding his use of the 10th Amendment to support it, while at the same time he has called for a constitutional amendment regarding marriage, clearly a contradiction.
Coming back to Bachmann, she is going to be hit hard by the media. The next several weeks and the upcoming debate in California will be extremely hard challenges for her. Her positions are polarizing and I believe that she will be limited in the voters she can attract. Independents will leave her standing in a desert. She will also find difficulty with Tea Partiers when they begin to see that her record has not been strongly in line with their principles. If you recall, she supported taking TARP bailout money after it was voted in, a big no-no in the Tea Party. Let's not also forget that she was working as a federal tax laywer, something despised by the Tea Party as well.
With Ron Paul, he still has the uphill battle facing a media blackout and there exists a general lack of knowledge about his positions with GOP and Independent voters. However, his strong showing in the straw poll when measured against his result back in 2007 (1305 votes) clearly shows that his base of support has grown significantly. Paul has the most potential among all of the GOP candidates to sway Independents and even some Democrats to come vote for him. This positions him well, if not better than the rest of the contenders when it comes down to the general election against Obama.
Now, as I said earlier in this article, I would touch more in detail on the issue regarding the strength of grassroots support. At this time, Ron Paul has the strongest grassroots support and brings to light a very important situation in the Republican race. In the poll conducted by Rasmussen for the Iowa caucus, they revealed that only 49% of Ron Paul supporters would vote for another GOP candidate in the case that Ron Paul does not get the nomination nod. So, here it is, the cold hard fact that the GOP must face: With Ron Paul's strong potential to sway independents and the fact that his supporters will not vote for anyone else but Paul, serious attention must be paid to Paul and his ideas. If not, the GOP risks having any chance to defeat Obama in 2012.
The debate over war spending will become a major issue and it must be addressed or our country will continue on a downward economic spiral. We cannot fix the problem cutting only from non-military spending that will have zero chance of passing through Congress. We all know that the Democrats will not fix the problem. They are addicted, nay, extremely addicted to spending. This is what Ron Paul was stressing in the Ames Debate last Thursday, and currently, all of the GOP candidates except Ron Paul, refuse to put military spending on the table. It's time that the GOP wakes up to the facts and gets down to the serious business of ensuring liberty and financial security to all American citizens rather than catering to the special interests and pretending to live in constant fear of third world muslim nations.
As always, you are welcome to leave comments in the comment section, or I may be contacted at fearlesscitizen.nc@gmail.com. And remember, please keep your comments civil.
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Posted By: Bill Gee
Date: August 15, 2011 02:31:04 PM
It made me nuts that despite Ron's extremely good showing in the Ames Straw Pool, all the media wanted to talk about was Bachman, Romney and Perry (with a hint of Palin) as though they were the only three running for the nomination. Very frustrating.
