Iowa Straw Poll Results - Bachmann First, Paul Close Second
The big winners in the Iowa Straw Poll yesterday were Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul by Walt Thiessen
(libertarian)
Sunday, August 14, 2011
If there is anything to be taken away from yesterday's straw poll results, it is two things. First, the media plan to continue to dismiss Cong. Ron Paul of Texas no matter what he does. It's going to take an actual win in a caucus or primary before they'll even begin to take him seriously. Second, Ron Paul's campaign organization is far superior to that of 2008, and he will be a force to be reckoned with in the 2012 primaries.
According to UPI, here are the results of the straw poll:
Michele Bachmann
4823
28.84%
Ron Paul
4671
27.93%
Tim Pawlenty
2293
13.71%
Rick Santorum
1657
9.91%
Herman Cain
1456
8.71%
Rick Perry
768
4.59%
Mitt Romney
567
3.39%
Newt Gingrich
385
2.30%
Jon Huntsman
69
0.41%
Thad McCotter
35
0.21%
Looking at the results, it's clear to see this was a two-candidate contest, and that candidates not named Paul and Bachmann were not even close, but you wouldn't know it by reading the news reports. "Bachmann and Perry - a beautiful 2012 rivalry" claimed Reuters. "GOP race jolted with Iowa poll, Perry entry", declared MSNBC, even though Perry barely managed to get 5% of the straw poll vote when you round up his percentage. "Perry overshadows Bachmann's Iowa victory" echoed the L.A. Times. Only the Boston Globe ("Bachmann, Paul soar in Iowa's straw poll") and the New York Times ("Iowa Poll Goes to Bachmann; Paul Is Second") paid even scant notice to Paul's performance, and even those articles essentially dismissed the Paul results.
One candidate apparently did take the results seriously. Tim Pawlenty's poor third place finish was apparently enough to convince him to withdraw his candidacy.
Yet, despite the fact that so many in the media say that the straw poll doesn't count for anything, it's amazing how so many also emphasized that the straw poll shows organizational ability, yet they didn't care that Perry didn't demonstrate any.
Officially, Perry entered the race days before the event, but unofficially it's been clear for some time that Perry is in campaign mode. His recent prayer event in Houston was clearly aimed at pandering to evangelicals, and there is no reason to do that if you're not in campaign mode. Before declaring his candidacy, he had been portraying himself as a politician who wasn't really interested in taking the first step, but the media never bought that line. His political handlers have been vigorously lining up support for their guy. So why, then, does he get a free pass in the straw poll? If everyone knows he was really in the race as an undeclared candidate, does that mean his campagin doesn't have to demonstrate organizational ability in the straw poll? The major media have apparently bought that argument hook, line, and sinker. One thing is certain: Perry is a highly skilled politician. We'll have to wait and see how much of an organization he can put together in the weeks and months ahead leading up to the Iowa Caucuses.
Meanwhile, Paul remains the dark horse candidate despite his strong showing. In many ways, that's a good place to be. Clearly, his campaign will be very well organized in every state as his supporters work to give their guy the best possible chance of winning. This is a huge difference from four years ago, when the Ron Paul Revolution was more of a movement than a campaign. Getting 28% in the straw poll is a good start, but now the Paul campaign must build on that success to show that Paul is a real candidate, a force to be reckoned with. I believe he will.
UPDATE: 8/16/2011 If you haven't seen it already, check out Jon Stewart's commentary on the Daily Show about how Ron Paul is being treated in the press following his surprisingly close second place finish. It's hysterical!
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Posted By: Bill Gee
Date: August 17, 2011 11:16:15 AM
The John Stuart commentary was hilarous - sad, but hilarious.
You know, I agree that's a great place for Ron to be at this point in the race. That way as he builds his grass roots support for his candidacy, his supporters can make the legitimate claim that the main media outlets are just the mouthpieces of corporate interests who have the most to lose from a President who is intent on dismantling the military industrial complex and moving the country to a sustainable economical future. It'll be interesting how badly they treat him if he actually wins the nomination.
