Candidate says anything less than a third-place finish would be a "real negative". by George Dance
(libertarian)
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
When Ron Paul came to Iowa to campaign in the Ames straw poll four years ago, no one knew what would be the outcome. ““He’s kind of a wild-card candidate,” Chuck Laudner, executive director of the state GOP, told the New York Times. “We don’t know what to expect. We’re sure he’ll have a big turnout, but we don’t know how many votes that will be.” Paul campaign spokesman Jesse Benton “would not speculate where Mr. Paul might finish.”(1)
Paul came fifth that year, with 9% of the vote, and followed that up with a similar fifth, and 10% of the vote, in the state caucuses five months later – well more than double the 3-4% he was polling at the time. “You know,” he says about it now, “for not having done a whole lot [of campaigning in the state] or understanding the process, it wasn’t terribly, terribly bad, but it wasn’t anything to brag about.”(2)
At the same time, Paul says that another fifth-place finish this year would be terribly bad. “Fourth or fifth place or worse ... would be a real negative, so we’re bound and determined to do better than that and we’re feeling pretty good about it,” he told an Iowa City crowd last week. “But if we’re in fourth or fifth or lower down, I’m not going to be all that excited. I’m going to be rather saddened.. I hope you don’t let me go from Ames being sad this year.” (2)
A lot has changed in four years. In 2007, Paul didn’t really begin to campaign in the state until August. His campaign bought only the minimum required 800 of the tickets needed for voting.(1) It made only the $15,000 minimum bid in the straw poll land auction (in which the candidates pay for display space at the voting site, to offset the cost of the vote) and received the last plot available, a piece of land “on a slope.” (3)
All summer this year, Paul has been flying into the state by private jet for weekly campaign rallies. His campaign has had six paid operatives in Iowa, and paid advertising on state radio and TV. At this year’s land auction, the Paul campaign “outbid all others and paid $31,000 to claim the most central spot at the straw poll for its supporters.” All of that financed by yet another online moneybomb, “Ready, Ames, Fire,” in which the rEVOLution gave Ron Paul another $550,000 in one day.(4)
Far from being an unknown quantity to Iowa Republicans this year, Paul has four supporters on the state party’s Central Committee, the most of any candidate.(4) He has been picking up endorsements from party figures like State Rep. Jason Schultz and Story County GOP chairman Cory Adams. “"I try to go for the candidates that line up mostly with the values, the principles of the Founders," Adams told CNN-TV. "Out of all the candidates in this cycle, I found Ron Paul to be the one with the longest, most consistent voting record to back up those principles and concepts."(5)
A recent Rasmussen survey of likely Republican caucus participants had Paul in third place, with 16% support. (Michele Bachmann and Mitt Romney had 22% and 21% respectively).(6)
This year’s New York Times reports that, this time around, even Paul’s “crowds are different from those of four years ago — more diverse in age and in their political views.”(4)
This Wednesday and Thursday, Ron Paul brings another key supporter to Iowa to campaign with him: his son Rand.(7) Four years ago, Rand Paul was an unknown eye doctor; today, he commands national attention as Kentucky’s U.S. Senator from the Tea Party. His very presence on the campaign trail is a reminder of how much the political landscape has changed — of how much greater traction Paul’s conservatarian views have this time around. .
That changed landscape is the message the campaign has been bringing to Iowa for months. Back in May, the Des Moines Register was reporting that “Paul insisted today he’s no longer a fringe candidate and more Americans are embracing his philosophy of personal liberty and limited government.... Paul maintained today that mainstream American political attitudes are changing, and more people are agreeing with his approach. Increasing numbers of independent-minded people and others who have felt disenfranchised by many American politicians are identifying with the Republican Party, he added.”(8)
“Mr. Paul’s libertarian views have moved from the fringe toward the mainstream of conservative thinking in the past several years,” the TImes concurs. “Now, as he again seeks the Republican presidential nomination, he is hoping to show that he can translate the new attention into votes. And his first test is the straw poll.”(4)
Photo - Ron Paul campaigning in New Hampshire, 2007. Public domain photo courtesy Wikimedia Commons.
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All summer this year, Paul has been flying into the state by private jet for weekly campaign rallies. His campaign has had six paid operatives in Iowa, and paid advertising on state radio and TV. At this year’s land auction, the Paul campaign “outbid all others and paid $31,000 to claim the most central spot at the straw poll for its supporters.” All of that financed by yet another online moneybomb, “Ready, Ames, Fire,” in which the rEVOLution gave Ron Paul another $550,000 in one day.(
