Paul Leading In Texas Among "Highly Active" Republican Voters
A poll by Azimuth Research Group of Austin, TX shows that Ron Paul currently leads among 882 Texas Republicans whom the poll describes as "highly active". by Walt Thiessen
(libertarian)
Friday, July 8, 2011
A poll released by Azimuth Research of Austin, TX shows Congressman Ron Paul of Texas leading among 882 "highly active" Republican voters in Texas among all Republican declared Presidential candidates. With approximately 22% support, this is a very signficant showing by the Texas Congressman known affectionately by his supporters as "Dr. No".
The poll shows the following breakdown.
Ron Paul – 22% Rick Perry – 17% Herman Cain – 14% Newt Gingrich – 11% Gary Johnson – 9% Mitt Romney – 8% Michele Bachmann – 7% Tim Pawlenty – 2% John Huntsman – 2% Rick Santorum – 1% Undecided – 7%
The survey description reads, "With its expanded number of electoral votes, if the field doesn’t narrow down too much, Texas could play a key roll in determining the Republican nominee for 2012. While everyone is watching the early states like New Hampshire and Iowa we’re taking a look at a big state which could decide the ultimate outcome." Conducted via telephone from May 29 thru June 3, it claims to have surveyed using a methodology of monitored and automated calls and claims a margin of error of +/- 2%.
It should be noted that the CEO of this polling outfit is Dave Nalle, the current chairman of the Republican Liberty Caucus, according to Wikipedia. A former Al Gore intern and a former vice-chairman and publications director of Students for a Libertarian Society, Nalle is currently a political writer, font designer, and published game author. He is also the senior politics editor and blogs at BlogCritics.org, a perusal of which gives you a good idea of his political views.
Since Azimuth Research is mostly a start-up operation, its survey results must be taken with a grain of salt, especially considering the fact that Paul, who leans heavily toward libertarian ideology on many issues, shares much the same political philosophy as Nalle himself. However, it's also noteworthy that former Gov. Gary Johnson also leans libertarian, yet he doesn't score as well in the survey. So how much of the survey result is reflective of Azimuth's biases, and how much of it is objective? It's hard to say.
What we can say is this. If the poll is even partially accurate, it strongly suggests that Dr. Paul is going to be a major force in the 2012 primaries, particularly since it shows that he is five points ahead of Texas governor Rick Perry. If the measurement is accurate and is a true representation of who likely Republican voters are currently supporting, it is very bad news for the Perry camp, because as governor, Perry should be able to clean up Republican support in his own state. To be trailing to a Congressman from the same state, a man who many political analysts think of as a gadfly with no chance to win, a man who Republican leaders (including the rest of the state's Congressional delegation) rejects is a very suspect showing for Gov. Perry. Don't misunderstand me. I don't share the pundits' assessment of Dr. Paul. I merely note it. Actually, I voted for Paul in 2008 both in the primary and as a write-in candidate in the general election, and I will probably do so again. I'm simply elaborating on the fact that the pundits may have to re-evaluate their ongoing stand that Paul can't win the Texas primary, in light of the fact that as the 2012 campaign opens, he's well in front of the pack and leading Perry handily, despite the fact that Perry is the darling of Texas Republican leaders.
It remains to be seen how Paul does in other state-wide polls, but if this Texas poll is any indication, Paul won't be a gadfly in this election cycle. He will be a major contender.
UPDATE: If you haven't seen it already, take a look at the follow-up article I wrote a few days after this one in which I interviewed the founder of Azimuth, Dave Nalle, who indicated that regional variations in response may have affected the results of the poll.
Did you like this article? If you did, Thumb It! 28
thumbs so far
The views expressed
in this article are those of Walt Thiessen only and
do not represent the views of Nolan Chart, LLC or its affiliates.
Walt Thiessen is solely responsible for the contents
of this article and is not an employee or otherwise affiliated
with Nolan Chart, LLC in his/her role as a columnist.
Posted By: William Westmiller
Date: July 8, 2011 01:25:50 PM
While superficially encouraging, an automated phone poll of "highly active" Republicans is totally meaningless. The company doesn't describe how it selected phone numbers, but responses to an automated poll could be from children, babysitters, or even dogs.
Posted By: Kaphen DePriest
Date: July 8, 2011 01:36:07 PM
"totally meaningless"... I'm not sure about that. Those children, babysitters and dogs would have to be pretty smart for 22% of them to vote for Ron Paul. I guess they could have voted for Rick Perry or any of the others. To me, that would have been meaningless.
By the way, I'm in Texas and I'm going to vote for Ron Paul and I'm going to try to convince everyone I know to do the same.
