Gallup Poll: Romney, Palin, and Paul Leading GOP Field
In a poll released May 26, 2011 by Gallup, Romney is leading the GOP presidential field with 17%. Romney is followed by Palin at 15% and Paul at 10%. by Thomas Johnson
(libertarian)
Thursday, May 26, 2011
In a poll released May 26, 2011 by Gallup, Romney is leading the GOP presidential field with 17%. Romney is followed by Palin at 15% and Paul at 10%.
Romney leads among college graduates, conservatives, identified Republicans, weekly church attendees, Catholics, and is in a tie with Palin for the Protestant vote. Palin leads among nongraduates and those who attend church less often. Paul leads among moderate/liberal and the all important Republican leaning swing vote. No other candidate leads in any polled grouping.
Romney is obviously the leader at this point, according to Gallup's latest poll, and is followed by Palin and Paul. If Palin does not run, the Gallup poll shows Romney at 19% by gaining some of her support and Paul moving into a tie for second with Newt Gingrich at 12% as both Paul and Gingrich pick up some of Palin's support.
A CNN poll, released a few weeks ago, that was compiled April 29 - May 1, 2011 actually pitted GOP candidates against President Obama. In this poll, Romney polled 43% vs. Obama at 54%. Palin polled 38% vs. Obama at 59%, Gingrich polled 40% vs. Obama at 57%, and the closest candidate to Obama was Paul polling 45% vs. Obama at 52%.
Paul's results, in light of the latest Gallup poll, indicate that his strong moderate/liberal and all important Republican leaning swing vote puts him in a good position to challenge President Obama in a general election. Paul's hardcore fiscal conservatism is attractive to the Republican base, but his libertarian views on civil liberties and war are attractive to Democrats with the combination of his beliefs pulling strong support from the independent swing voter. Paul's challenge will be to convince an even larger part of the Republican base that his combination of views are the real 'Change' that is needed in D.C. and that only he can truly beat Obama in a general election because of his unique cross-party appeal.
Romney's challenge is to convince the Republican base that his continued support of Romneycare is not important in the wider scheme of things. If Romney can convince the Republican base that Romneycare is an irrelevant issue, then he will have a chance of widening his lead.
Palin hasn't even made any strong overtures that she is even going to run for the GOP nomination. Should she decide to run, things could become interesting.
Gingrich has stirred the pot and upset many Republicans by challenging their plan for Medicare reform. It will be interesting to see if Gingrich can grow his support beyond its present level.
The field is still very open at this point and there is no clear and strong frontrunner. There are many possible additional candidates that will run for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination which could change the dynamics of the race. For now, these polls are small snapshots in time and show a very dynamic race that is far from settling out.
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Posted By: Bill Gee
Date: May 27, 2011 09:49:14 AM
As you say, it is too early to tell if any of the declared candidates have any real advantage over the other but it's interesting that Ron Paul seems to do best in a head-to-head with Obama. We might know about Palin and/or Bachman before the end of next week, but if either runs I believe it will be more of a distraction than anything of real substance, but I've been wrong before.
I'd be interested to know your take on my analysis on the GOP message that I wrote a couple of days ago.
