Gary Johnson is running for President. But there is little else one can say with certainty about his candidacy. by George Dance
(libertarian)
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
It now looks certain that Gary Johnson will be running for President. A month ago his political advocacy group, OUR America, was sending out fundraising requests full of hints such as: "P.S. Gov. Johnson will be traveling many more times to states like New Hampshire, Iowa, Florida, South Carolina, and Nevada over the coming months."(1) By March. 25, there were press reports that Johnson would "bypass the exploratory stage, announce his candidacy and immediately travel to New Hampshire sometime after tax day, April 15."(2) By March 29, the story was that "he will formally announce his candidacy for president on April 21 in New Hampshire."(3) On April 12, Johnson himself "confirmed that he has scheduled a news conference for April 21 on the steps of the New Hampshire State Capitol in Concord to discuss his plans for the 2012 election."(4)
So the earlier question -- Will Johnson run? -- looks answered. The question now is: What will his candidacy mean to the rEVOLution (the ongoing fight for a free society) and the part of it we're interested in here, rEVOLution 2.0? And that question cannot be answered so easily. Johnson is a true wild card in this year's game.
There is no doubt that ideologically, from the perspective of the rEVOLution, Johnson is an ideal candidate. Imagine a libertarian who was not only elected, but who managed to govern for eight full years -- who was able to walk away undefeated without ever having raised a tax, while still leaving his state with a healthy surplus. (5)
Johnson's record gives credibility to his fiscal message: That the U.S. is in economic trouble, an emergency that requires the size and cost of govnment to be cut drastically, immediately. That message could resonate with the Tea Party, which is the most dynamic part of the Republican Party right now. However, Johnson has other views -- on marijuana, gay unions, and abortion --- that can be straightforwardly called libertarian; any of which could be a dealbreaker for the more socially conservative Tea Partiers.
One place in the GOP where Johnson's views have unqualified support is among the Ron Paul Republicans. It has been common knowledge for some time that "Gary Johnson's platform will probably look a lot like Ron Paul's back in 2008. Like Paul, Johnson is officially a member of the Republican Party, but his politics are driven by Libertarian ideology."(6) Paul himself has been quoted as saying that, should he not run for President this time, Johnson would be the best alternative. (7)
However, it now looks likely that Paul will run; and even more likely that, if for some reason he could not, his son Rand would. And with a Paul in the race, what would be the need or demand for a "next Ron Paul" like Gov. Johnson?
So Johnson does have an obvious need to differentiate himself from Paul, which is something he has begun to acknowledge. For instance, when Politico recently asked him about his "Governor No" nickname -- earned from vetoing over 750 bills in eight years -- comparing it with Ron Paul's ''Doctor No'' sobriquet, Johnson pointed out a big difference between the two:
"His 'no' was philosophical. It was reasoned. It was right. My 'no' actually put a stop to legislation. It cut spending. Mine carried further than just 'no.' I had to follow through with the debate, discussion and dialogue on why my 'no' wouldn't result in people starving, schools being shut down and the delivery of services to the poor wasn't going to be curtailed."(3) In other words: Paul's 'No' votes were futile protests; Johnson's vetoes were serious attempts at governing.
My view is that Johnson should be able to differentiate himself from Paul -- his mainstream libertarian (ie, culturally liberal) views are a far cry from Paul's paleolibertarian ones -- and that if he uses the debates wisely, he should find a following of his own. Neither Paul nor Johnson will destroy the other's chances just by running too.
Beyond that, though, there is a worry that two pro-liberty candidates willl take money, volunteer help, and other resources that could prove vital to the other. My view is that those worries will not become important for a while; high-expense campaigning will not start until year end. It may even be that having two libertarian voices in the debates will help both candidacies.
Another legitimate worry is that the two candidates could end up splitting a small pro-liberty vote pool, preventing either of them from making a decent showing in the polls. That could be an important factor in the future; I am inclined, though, to think that poll percentages will not be that important before 2012. I also question whether that concern is overly pesimistic, as it assumes that a libertarian candidate cannot reach out beyond that base;. when in fact, in order to have a shot at the nomination at all, he or she would have to.
The televised debates beginning this May will introduce a whole new dynamic. Once we move into that stage, it might become easier to say how this particular wild card should be played.
Sources
Photo - Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson at the Nullify Now! event in Phoenix, Arizona, Jan. 29, 2011. Photo by Gage Skidmore. Licensed CC-BY-SA-3.0. Courtesy Wikimedia Commons.
(4) “Former NM Gov. Johnson to make announcement in NH” (AP), Boston Globe, Apr. 12, 2011. http://www.boston.com/news/local/new_hampshire/articles/2011/04/12/former_nm_gov_johnson_to_make_announcement_in_nh/
(5) George Dance, “Gary Johnson and Our America,” Nolan Chart, Jan. 11, 2010. http://www.nolanchart.com/article7243.html
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in this article are those of George Dance only and
do not represent the views of Nolan Chart, LLC or its affiliates.
George Dance is solely responsible for the contents
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Johnson's record gives credibility to his fiscal message: That the U.S. is in economic trouble, an emergency that requires the size and cost of govnment to be cut drastically, immediately. That message could resonate with the Tea Party, which is the most dynamic part of the Republican Party right now. However, Johnson has other views -- on marijuana, gay unions, and abortion --- that can be straightforwardly called libertarian; any of which could be a dealbreaker for the more socially conservative Tea Partiers. 
