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columnist: Joe the Liberal

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Topic: Economics

The Facts Don't Lie. Dems Are Better For the Stock Markets


Proof that it is the Democrats, not the Republicans, who stock holders should trust more.
by Joe the Liberal
(centrist)
Sunday, February 13, 2011

Ever wonder how the stock markets do under certain Presidents? Ever wonder if they tend to do better under Democrats or Republicans? To find out I went on Yahoo Finance and found data for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, or DJIA for short. The DJIA is one of America's oldest and most important stocks, so gauging it is a good indicator of how the stocks are doing. I tracked the DJIA's value at all Presidential transition points as well as the latest value, dating back to 1929. (It wouldn't let me go any further.) Below are my results- I think this will clear up any confusion over which party's leadership is more positive for stock markets.

The DJIA Under Certain Presidents (since 1929)

 

President

Years

Start

End

% +/-

 

Hoover

1929-1933

311.61

60.56

-80.57

 

Roosevelt

1933-1945

60.56

159.75

163.79

 

Truman

1945-1953

159.75

288

80.28

 

Eisenhower

1953-1961

288

643.59

123.47

 

Kennedy

1961-1963

643.59

750.52

16.61

 

Johnson

1963-1969

750.52

938.59

25.06

 

Nixon

1969-1974

938.59

767.29

-18.25

 

Ford

1974-1977

767.29

962.43

25.43

 

Carter

1977-1981

962.43

940.19

-2.31

 

Reagan

1981-1989

940.19

2322.86

147.06

 

Bush Sr.

1989-1993

2322.86

3256.81

40.21

 

Clinton

1993-2001

3256.81

10695.98

288.42

 

Bush Jr.

2001-2009

10695.98

8077.56

-24.48

 

Obama

2009-2011

8077.56

12273.26*

51.94

 

*As of Feb. 11, 2011

Type of text indicates political party- normal for Democrats and in italic for Republicans.

Source: Yahoo Finance, Dow Jones Industrial Average

If I were to graph this, you would see a general pattern of greater increases under Democrats than Republicans, with all but one of the decreases (by far the smallest one) coming from a Republican and four of the top six increases coming from a Democrat, including the top two ones. Don't believe me? Then take a look at this ranking of the past fourteen Presidents (seven Democrats, seven Republicans) based on how the DJIA did while they were in office.

Ranking

President

% change of DJIA

1

Clinton

288.42

 

2

Roosevelt

163.79

 

3

Reagan

147.06

 

4

Eisenhower

123.47

 

5

Truman

80.28

 

6

Obama

51.94*

 

7

Bush Sr.

40.21

 

8

Ford

25.43

 

9

Johnson

25.06

 

10

Kennedy

16.61

 

11

Carter

-2.31

 

12

Nixon

-18.25

 

13

Bush Jr.

-24.48

 

14

Hoover

-80.57

 

As with the last graph, type of text indicates political party and the asterisk notes that this number is tentative, at least at the time of publication. To put the above results in better perspective, the DJIA increased by an average of 89.11% when a Democrat held office, compared to just 30.41% when a Republican held the job. That's almost a trifold increase- and makes one wonder why any reasonable stock holder would vote Republican. History has made it clear enough that the stock markets do much better under Democrats, and I assume that most stock holders wouldn't mind having more money.

(The above article is in no way affiliated with or endorsed by the Democratic Party or any other organization of any kind.)

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©2011 Joe the Liberal, all rights reserved. You must have written permission from the author in order to republish this work.
Published: Sunday, February 13, 2011
Last modified: Sunday, February 13, 2011

The views expressed in this article are those of Joe the Liberal only and do not represent the views of Nolan Chart, LLC or its affiliates. Joe the Liberal is solely responsible for the contents of this article and is not an employee or otherwise affiliated with Nolan Chart, LLC in his/her role as a columnist.

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Posted By: Bentree
Date: February 13, 2011   01:04:53 PM

Read this article, http://mises.org/daily/3515 and you will see that our current policies from the Obama administration are for the most part mirroring the late Coolidge and Hoover Fed mistakes and FDR was no help, FDR only exacerbated the problems by raising taxes and spending public funds as well as much more. From the article , Mises Daily: Wednesday, June 24, 2009 by Hans F. Sennholz

“Nineteen Thirty-One was a tragic year. The whole nation, in fact, the whole world, fell into the cataclysm of despair and depression. American unemployment jumped to more than 8 million and continued to rise. The Hoover administration, summarily rejecting the thought that it had caused the disaster, labored diligently to place the blame on American businessmen and speculators. President Hoover called together the nation's industrial leaders and pledged them to adopt his program to maintain wage rates and expand construction. He sent a telegram to all the governors, urging cooperative expansion of all public-works programs. He expanded federal public works and granted subsidies to ship construction. And for the benefit of the suffering farmers, a host of federal agencies embarked upon price-stabilization policies that generated ever larger crops and surpluses, which in turn depressed product prices even further. Economic conditions went from bad to worse, and unemployment in 1932 averaged 12.4 million.
In this dark hour of human want and suffering, the federal government struck a final blow. The Revenue Act of 1932 doubled the income tax, the sharpest increase in the federal tax burden in American history. Exemptions were lowered, "earned income credit" was eliminated. Normal tax rates were raised from a range of 11/2 to 5 percent to a range of 4 to 8 percent, surtax rates from 20 percent to a maximum of 55 percent. Corporation tax rates were boosted from 12 percent to 133/4 and 141/2 percent. Estate taxes were raised. Gift taxes were imposed with rates from 3/4 to 331/2 percent. A 10 percent gasoline tax was imposed, a 3 percent automobile tax, a telegraph and telephone tax, a 2¢ check tax, and many other excise taxes. And finally, postal rates were increased substantially.
When state and local governments faced shrinking revenues, they, too, joined the federal government in imposing new levies. The rate schedules of existing taxes on income and business were increased and new taxes imposed on business income, property, sales, tobacco, liquor, and other products.
Murray Rothbard, in his authoritative work on America's Great Depression (Van Nostrand 1963), estimates that the fiscal burden of federal, state, and local governments nearly doubled during the period, rising from 16 percent of net private product to 29 percent. This blow, alone, would bring any economy to its knees, and shatters the silly contention that the Great Depression was a consequence of economic freedom.
However, when Franklin Delano Roosevelt assumed the presidency, he, too, fought the economy all the way. In his first 100 days, he swung hard at the profit order. Instead of clearing away the prosperity barriers erected by his predecessor, he built new ones of his own. He struck in every known way at the integrity of the US dollar through quantitative increases and qualitative deterioration. He seized the people's gold holdings and subsequently devalued the dollar by 40 percent”.

Dose this strike a familiar note? Remember this is the 20's 30's and 40's. The policies that created these problems are still for the most part in place. Capitalism will overcome stupidity by eliminating the stupid as it is even attempting to do now. Has it now been overwhelmed by shear numbers, ignorance, ideology, and stupidity? Probably.

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Posted By: Bill Gee
Date: February 14, 2011   01:36:35 PM

Your article is interesting, but your analysis is pretty simplistic. It fails to take into account general economic trends, which are not under anyone's control - especially the President!

Perhaps it would have been better if you had divided your data by "TERM" rather than just by whoever was in office at the time. Then you would have found profound growth in 2004 under Bush Jr.'s first term and then a decline during his second term, mostly in 2007-2008.

Therefore, your article is interesting, but VERY misleading.

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