Liberal election tactics already in play for 2012.
Obama and Democrats know this will be a tough election, they are trying to rig the playing field years in advance. by Mark Vogl
(conservative)
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
The definition of war is the application of force to impose one nation's (or alliance)will upon another. In the case of hot wars the force most effectively used is military force. But, the Cold War taught us that nonmilitary "cold" wars can have lethal effects. In the Cold War it was the end of the Soviet Union.
American electoral politics has many of the characteristics of war. The battlefield is the mind of America's voters. The resources are money, news media, paid media (electronic and print), current events, quality of candidates, political organization in terms of political machines like parties, unions,associations, and political action committees.
Another aspect of the pre-campaign strategy is determining the size and make up of the electorate. This process is different in the respective states. States in the north, with large union populations, and highly organized political machines are much easier to predict. There is a clear formula for determining the probable voter turn out, and from that, the electoral difficulty of the election. It is these scientific approaches which help explain why incumbents win approximately 97% of all races.
One very important phase of the election can occur months or years before the actual election. An example, Obama's election was ordained at the Republican meeting that set up the last primary season which marginalized conservative candidates in the Republican Party primary process. McCain was the weakest GOPer candidate and could never beat a youthful Obama. But a more conservative, energetic Republican could have swamped him.
Now, we look at the pre-election manuevering in states. One favorite tactic of liberals is to add candidates to the ballot, whether it be a primary or general election Why?
The core of the Democrat, or liberal party are a conglomeration of government beneficiaries. These groups receive their living from the tax payer. They work for government, or in jobs which are heavily financed by government. In the end, they are voting for their paycheck, retirement benefits, and other perks. They are in unions for the most part. These employment groups include teachers, local, state and federal workers, and contractors, including not-for -profit organizations. The other core groups are beneficiaries of government services or programs, like senior citizens, ethnic minorities, and other special classes.
This core group is probably somewhere around 35% to 40% of the electorate who participate in voting. Each person who stays home, and doesn't vote, increases the percentage of these voters who vote because their standard of living depends on it.
Now, if you have 40% of the vote sewed up, you need only get 10.1% more of the remaining 60%. This is why the Democrats are so successful, they need only win about one of every six non-government funded voters.
But, the Democrats are in trouble now. Even those benefitting from government largese can see that deficit financing will not work in the long run. And they also know higher taxes destroy the golden goose. So the Democrats are in trouble and they know it. They may not be able to get the 10.1%. And, in fact things are so bad that even their government financed core voters may be either moving right or staying home. So now the political calculus tells us they may only be able to get 40 to 45%of the voters. To win with 40% there must be a three way race, with the third candidate drawing better than 10% of the vote.
This is the strategy that elected Bill Clinton twice. Yes, President Bill Clinton never got 50% of the vote, even against the impotent and aged Bob Dole.
So now the liberatarians and other normally impotent voters become important. Their guy wont win, but they get to vote for him and simultaneously elect the liberal. This is when the media than claims that the Republican was too conservative, and that the GOP must shift left to compete. Its not true, but it has worked repeatedly.
The liberals are already moving to get a third candidate in the race, and to get additional parties on state ballots. They can't get a majority (50.1%) so they have to create a strategic situation on the ballot which allows them to win with much less. Donald Trump is the new Ross Perot. No previous leadership in government (yes government and governing does require training), and no real shot at being elected. But, he could easily draw ten percent of the vote.
Republicans normally can't play in this early political manuevering which resembles man to man coverage in football. It's easier to rally special interest money to confuse the ballot, (and the electorate,) than it is to get the more individualistic conservative financiers to pay for the attorneys and politicos necessary to block these early, but strategically important, chess moves.
Keep your eyes on the news, and the states, and you will see the beginnings of the 2012 campaign before your eyes.
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Posted By: Bill Gee
Date: February 8, 2011 02:04:19 PM
Republicans and Conservatives have their own "political playbook", which they use quite well in hotly contested races. These tactics include:
1) Breaking down complex issues into a simple, easy-to-understand narrative that can be repeated frequently by anyone.
2) Coordinating that message among all of their operatives so that they can hit the same message on all major news networks at the same time.
3) Link the message to a core conservative value such as "God", "Country", or "Security" so that the message has "sticking power" beyond the 24-hour news cycle.
Conservatives also do well when the level of insecurity in the country is at its highest; when people feel the least safe.
Both Conservatives and Liberals are experts at using misinformation to their best advantage. Incumbants use misinformation to discourage people from voting against them, and challengers use misinformation to distort the words and actions of the incumbant.
As you say, Liberals are in trouble for much of what you said, but so are Conservatives if they fail to enact the reforms they promised in the Mid-Term elections.
Posted By: Mark Vogl
Date: February 9, 2011 07:39:36 AM
Billy,
Conservative tactics are about message, according to you...to me that is a positive. Most complex issues can be broken down ...complexiety is a liberal art form.
With respect to conservatives "enacting" their mid term platform. They need to pass it in the House, where they have a majority...but enact they can't do, til we throw the libs out of power in the Senate and White House. Most conservatives are smart enough to know that.
