Is their a connection between how Democrats vote on repealing health care reform and getting reelected? by Don Goins
(libertarian)
Sunday, January 16, 2011
In what most view as a symbolic vote, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives will likely pass H.R. 2; Repealing the Job-Killing Health Care Law Act. The act will most likely die in the Senate but in the unlikely scenario that it passes, it will still face the veto power of the President.
Even in the face of likely defeat, GOP leaders are trying to intimidate Democrats into voting for repeal. They point out that in the 2010 midterm elections a large number of Democrats were voted out of office due to their support of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA). By pushing forward H.R. 2 Republicans are forcing Democrats to publicly voice their support for the ACA. The goal would be to use this against Democrats in the 2012 elections.
The vote for the ACA last spring was a contentious one. No Republicans in the House voted in favor of it and 34 Democrats joined them. Did opposing the ACA help these 34 Democrats in the midterm elections? It appears it did not. Out of the 34, 21 lost their bid for reelection, 12 won, and one retired.
One of the most interesting cases of the Democrats that lost is Idaho representative Walt Minnick. Minnick is a member of the House's Blue Dog coalition and is seen as a fiscal conservative. He voted against the President and his party on cap and trade, the stimulus package, and health care reform. Minnick also had the sole distinction of being the the only Democrat to be endorsed by the Tea Party Express (which he rejected when Tea Party Express leader Mark Williams published a controversial email).
Yet armed with seemingly very conservative credentials, Minnick was defeated by Republican Raul Labrador.
In light of what happen to Minnick and the others that voted against health care reform, congressional Democrats shouldn't assume that voting with Republicans will save their job. It seems that their vote has little to do with being reelected and much more with the (D) after their name.
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Posted By: Bill Gee
Date: January 17, 2011 07:46:40 AM
I believe your assessment is right on the mark given that most of the "Blue Dog Coalition" lost their reelection bids in the Mid-term elections. What is more likely to happen is that the law will win a Constitutional challenge and by the time the next election cycle comes around, the millions of lost jobs predicted by the Right will not happen and Americans will start to become accustomed to their new health benefits under the plan. This will make repealing the law much more difficult for Republicans even if they end up winning the whole of Congress in 2012.
Posted By: Don Goins
Date: January 17, 2011 08:48:52 AM
Thanks. After reviewing the arguments the government and the states put forth it would seem that the ACA will found constitutional. Some folks are pointing to Hudson's ruling in Virginia, but he only had issue with the penalty portion and only suspended that part, not the whole law.
