The best response to confront a increasingly aggresive China is to encircle and contain China. by James Luko
(centrist)
Friday, November 19, 2010
To counter increasing Chinese aggression, both militarily and economically, the U.S. must lead, as it is, a policy of strategic encirclement' leading to a modern "containment' strategy of Mainland China.
Regarding the "validity" (the word credibility was used) of the "thrust" of the first article regarding this subject; which was that despite heavy trading with China, countries like South Korea, Japan, India, Russia and Pakistan were safe from China and did NOT consider China a threat- one can reference the following reports from just the last month from the countries concerned to observe for ones-self the CREDIBILITY of the previous article regarding this subject. (author) READ ON
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By JOHN T. BENNETT Published: 17 Nov 2010 Defense News USA
The Chinese military continues modernizing its combat aircraft and missile fleets, aiming to expand the People's Liberation Army's strike range and prevail in a "modern, technology-intensive war," the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission told lawmakers.
In its annual report to Congress, the commission alleges the Chinese government may aid cyber attacks on America and other nations
The report states that China now possesses an offensive missile arsenal capable of striking U.S. allies like Japan
Japan To Send Troops To Remote Isle Over China Fears
AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE Published: 11 Nov 2010 13:24
TOKYO - Tokyo will send around 100 soldiers to a remote Japanese island in the East China Sea, a report said Thursday, amid growing anxiety over China's naval activities.
The ground troops will be deployed on Yonaguni island, Japan's westernmost point, to carry out coastal patrols and surveillance of Chinese naval vessels, Jiji news agency quoted defense officials as saying.
Increased Chinese naval activity has sparked a defense rethink in which Japan has mulled sending more forces to its scattered southern islands and away from Cold War-era bases in the north near Russia.
In an incident in April this year, a large Chinese flotilla approached a group of disputed islands in the East China Sea and sent out a helicopter that buzzed Japanese navy ships monitoring their movement.
The area is a frequent flashpoint for troubles between Japan and China.
Ties have been badly strained since Japan arrested a Chinese trawler captain near the disputed island chain in September, sparking a barrage of protests from Beijing.
China's increased assertiveness, particularly in the South China Sea, has also caused jitters among other neighboring nations as well as the United States, which is also at odds with China over trade and currency issues.
Indian Politician Warns of Chinese Threat
By VIVEK RAGHUVANSHI Defense news Published: 10 Nov 2010 12
NEW DELHI - A day after U.S. President Barack Obama left here following a state visit, a former defense minister told the Indian Parliament that he had information that China could make a surprise attack on India.
Mulayum Singh Yadav, now the leader of the Samajwadi Party, led his party members to make loud noises in the Lower House of the Parliament, warning the government to be alert.
"Hundreds of thousands of kilometers of Indian territory are still under Chinese occupation, and our subsequent governments have not been able to take that back," Yadav said Nov. 9.
He said the states of Arunachal Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Ladakh are particularly vulnerable, as China views these regions as its own. He said China has built eight-lane roads in its territory close to the border with India
India and China fought a brief war in 1962 over a territorial dispute, an issue that has yet to be settled despite several rounds of diplomatic talks.
Relations between the countries have been sour for more than two years. Last year, Beijing objected to a visit by the Dalai Lama, currently in exile in India, to the northeastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh. The Dalai Lama is the religious leader of Tibet, an annexed region of China.
India has been preparing to fight China and is working to buy light howitzers from the U.S. subsidiary of BAE Systems in a government-to-government deal. India also is developing infrastructure along its Chinese border, and adding troops that are being trained to fight at high altitudes. "
The mainstream media hardly publicized the gifts Obama came bearing to India to cement a new strategic defense partnership. Obama promised India strong U.S. support for India's ascension to be a permanent Security Council member and obliterating a whole host of American barriers to US weapons purchases and development by India. In addition, Obama himself, and heavy hitters at the Pentagon have pressured Pakistan to smooth its relations with India so attention could be turned to China by all three of them instead of wasting resources on the hostilities between India and Pakistan. (author)
By VIVEK RAGHUVANSHI Published: 8 Nov 2010 14:02 Defense News USA
NEW DELHI - U.S. President Barack Obama's announcement that Washington will endorse India's bid for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council could be a game-changer in Indo-American defense and strategic ties, a defense analyst here said.
Meanwhile, India and the U.S. signed six agreements and four memorandums of understanding (MoU) on Nov. 8. These included a MoU for cooperation in setting up a Global Center for Nuclear Energy Partnership
India Expands Defense Ties With Vietnam
By VIVEK RAGHUVANSHI Defense News USA Published: 13 Oct 2010 12:
India has been increasing defense ties with countries in the South East Asian region as part of a policy called "Look East," to counter the growing influence of China.
NEW DELHI - India and the U.S. are likely to sign a $3.5 billion defense deal, the biggest ever between the two countries, according to a report released Sept. 22. ... full story 22 Sep 08:14 EDT (13:14 GMT)
WELLINGTON - New Zealand's Defence Force (NZDF) will receive a modest increase to 2.85 billion New Zealand dollars ($1.89 billion) for the 2010-11 fiscal year, up from 2.83 billion New Zealand dollars, but the Ministry of Defence budget will fall to 239 million New Zealand dollars from 325 million the previous year. ... full story 26 May 12:58 EDT (17:58 GMT)
SYDNEY, Australia - Australia will escape the worst effects of last year's global financial crisis, and the government of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has kept its promise to maintain defense spending by increasing Australia's defense budget from 24.4 billion Australian dollars ($22.04 billion) in 2009-10 to 25.7 billion Australian dollars in the next year.
NOTE the following article was written BEFORE OBAMA'S recent visit to India:
India must counter China's imperial ambitions By Bharat Verma Date: 28 October, 2010 India Defence Review
New Delhi cannot afford to sit around while others plot its destruction
There are two distinct threats that endanger the existence of the Union.
Equally true is the fact that Americans are fighting India's war too. If they withdraw from the AFPAK area, the entire Jihad factory will descend mercilessly upon India to create mayhem.
First are the imperial ambitions of China that threaten to ultimately dismember the Indian Union in twenty or thirty parts. To succeed in its aim, Beijing over a
period of time unleashed the first phase of the strategy and intelligently encircled India. This initial phase resulted in shrinking New Delhi's strategic frontiers in its vicinity
Invited by Islamabad, the Chinese moved into Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK). With growing irrelevance of Pakistan as a nation-state, this area in times to come will become Chinese Occupied Kashmir (CoK). Similarly, China fabricated its territorial claim on Bhutan and is working to eclipse the prevailing Indian influence there
The second phase of the long-term strategy to unravel India based on smaller geographical regions is now underway. After successfully encircling India, the recent spurts in Chinese incursions on the border,
The concluding part of the plot of unraveling the Union, if successful, will remove the challenge to the unquestioned supremacy of China in Asia.
The success of expanding Chinese strategic reach in Asia is due to the singular fact that, unlike other communist parties, Communist Party of China from its inception has the advantage of precise military thinking inside the party, as PLA officers are integral to it. The above suggestions are particularly relevant to pacifist India, as military thinking in most of the other cultures, is a natural component
We should create military capabilities to disrupt enemy's rail supply line to Tibet. Indian thinkers are nervous at China's declaration to further extend the railway line to Nepal and Mya
The presence of Americans in Afghanistan-Pakistan and the growing Indo-US strategic partnership unnerves China.
The fact that a country may be the largest trading partner with China is geo-strategically irrelevant to an aggressive nation. Realize that economics and long-term geo-strategy may diverge and run along separate routes. Remember that enormous trade existed between Nazi Germany and Stalinist Soviet Union and that did not prevent the German attack on the USSR.
Until now, the American military presence in Asia has single-handedly prevented an Asian arms race, involving countries like South Korea, Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Taiwan, Russia and China. It kept a lid on regional-wide conflicts and gave confidence to Asian countries to focus on building their economies, civil society and promoting trade and democracy. This, however, is now being upset by the recent aggressive behavior and rhetoric of China and hence, one can see that defense budgets throughout the region are on the rise again after years of decline- and there is ONE reason for that- CHINA's new geo-strategic stance of aggressiveness making their mantra of a "peaceful rise" to be window dressing.
It's true that Pakistan is an ally of China- but also the U.S. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that Pakistan, being a middle sized power along with longtime rival India, is playing a game of getting the most out of playing off China and America. Since 9/11 America has given over 4 billion dollars worth of military aid to Pakistan and former leader Pervez Musharraf clearly announced- right after 9/11 that Pakistan was asked by the United States (Bush) to take a side- it took the side of America. This was ostensibly to combat terrorism and dominance of radical Muslims- i.e. the Taliban at the time.
Pakistan knows that it is a "temporary" tactical ally of China in a chess game against the Russians, Indians and Americans. Pakistan knows that in the long term- Pakistan itself is merely the land route to the Indian Ocean and portal to the oil riches of the Middle East for China. That is precisely WHY Pakistan continues a close military relationship with the United States. That is precisely WHY Obama has had the Pentagon and himself working on smoothing differences between India and Pakistan in an effort to ease Pakistan's tactical dependence on China. In addition, the U.S., by far, remains the largest import (meaning the U.S. buying goods from Pakistan) trading partner for Pakistan, while China remains as its largest export partner (meaning Pakistan buying goods from China- so in this case China is NOT the overall largest trading partner for Pakistan.)
India: China is India's largest "export" trading partner but the UAE and USA remains its largest "import" partner- but so what- China, as one can see from the articles above, remains a growing strategic threat to India as well as its continued occupation of Indian territory (Aksai Chin). India also fought a border war with China in 1962, therefore, the fact that China is India's largest "export"trading partner does not reduce the threat China poses to it for the mere consideration of trade. Just consider what Indian defense analysts are saying in the articles above.
The trade-security nexus of both Japan and Australia vis-a-vis China is the same case as India; it has not prevented recent tensions between Japan and China. In fact, it has led to China displaying what it can do to hurt Japan by cutting of rare-element sales. This is why everyone has taken notice of China's recent behavior, that DESPITE the integral trade between China and its neighbors, that fact has not served to restrain China. This would indicate clearly that China is moving into new phase of seeking to be the single dominant power in Asia, holding geo-strategy and dominance superior to its economic interests.
Aggressive behavior is outlined as such;
China OCCUPIES Tibet China OCCUPIES portions of India (Aksai Chin) China CLAIMS huge portions of North-East India (Arunachal Pradesh) China THREATENS Taiwan with INVASION if Taiwan continues to consider independence China has CUT "rare-earth" element sales to Japan- severely hampering Japan's economy China CLAIMS the Spratly Islands ( for its potential in oil) China has WARNED off and CHASED out U.S. Surveillance ships operating in international waters China has not restrained North Korea using it as leverage against South Korea and the U.S.
The "LUKO DOCTRINE"
As one who has lived in China for the past several years, it is obvious that many policies undertaken by China is in preparation for "global emergence." A "global emergence" would be to preserve China's access to markets, resources and wide-perimeter defense. This is not surprising, nor evil; it is a natural by-product of an emerging global power. There is a question however where this "global emergence" will end? Will China seek global "dominance"? There are signs that some in China's government feel that global dominance is the only way to preserve China's future. There are many signs for this questionable end goal of China- take for example the massive efforts at learning English- this is not a sign of respect to the great American power, to learn the masters' language- but rather a recognition that global dominance also requires "soft power" which includes the use of the English language as a "lingua franca". Chinese government encouragement to their students to learn English is NOT for cooperation with America but against America. China wants the benefits of knowing English to penetrate markets, enter the giant software markets, internet control, etc.
As China expands trade- they will require a "blue-water" navy to protect their sea lanes. This will require a major expansion in their offensive naval capabilities. As China establishes "resource bridgeheads" around the world- now mainly in Africa- they will require overseas bases to protect their investment and supply lines (China has already deployed thousands' of soldiers to Africa to protect Chinese resource mining projects- as well as 5,000 Chinese deployed in UN Africa peacekeeping missions).
In this context, the " LUKO DOCTRINE" is a declaration that it is time to implement a "containment" policy on China as the US did on the Soviet Union more than 60 years ago. Containment is the use of geo-strategy, military-economic and diplomatic efforts to "contain" China's "aggressive" behavior. Containment of China means world peace and prevention of another wasteful arms race between major powers. Containment breeds stability in Asia and across the world.
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Posted By: phead128
Date: November 19, 2010 01:38:53 PM
A formal alliance among America's Asian allies to commit to a USSR-style containment of China is impossible because most of these countries have China as their largest trading partner.
USSR style containment cannot work against China because China is far more globalized, intertwined in global trade, and important as the world's growth engine to be isolated politically, economically, and geopolitically under a USSR-style containment policy.
Plus, China has thoroughly studied how USSR fell because of it's over investment in the military establishment, which caused her economy to fail. The Chinese are doing the complete opposite, investing in their economy, while the US is sagging under $13 trillion dollars worth of debt and over strained her military resources in 2 wars, and has doubled her military spending since USSR collapsed during peacetime.
If anything, US does has inadequate and overstrained military resources to contain China, and will probably collapsed just like the USSR by overspending on unnecessary military budgets and collapse like the British Empire under her own pile of debt.
'Luko doctrine' will probably be 'Monroe Doctrine 2.0' (ie. US retreating back to the Western hemisphere where she belongs and reducing her role as global policemen in a bipolar or tripolar world with EU and China in the mix.)
US strategy isn't well thought-out and is unsustainable because it always requires an 'enemy' to overthrow. An empire built on the rule of might may be strong, but China's rule has historically been through the rule of right, and has never been expansionist or imperialistic in her history.
Posted By: phead128
Date: November 19, 2010 01:48:19 PM
Containment of China is a Cold war era mentality that will ensure the acceleration of America's relative decline.
Ask any expert on geopolitical relations, and you will realize that the China threat is overexaggerated in order to sustain America's ever increasing military-industrial complex and war machine.
It's not good for America's future to position China as the next USSR rival, especially since people like Luko have absolutely no clue what he is talking about. Like a babbling idiot who just reads the news and doesn't read actual primary literature on this subject. Self-proclaim professor or expert probably doesn't know anything about geopolitics.
Posted By: jamesluko
Date: November 21, 2010 05:26:26 PM
Phead128, I will not reply to ad hominem attacks.
" a babbling idiot" ? "self-proclaim professor" ? Where did I "claim" to be a professor ? I think my background, experience and education on my profile on this site speaks for itself.
Posted By: phead128
Date: November 22, 2010 07:43:06 PM
Tell me, how is it possible to isolate China politically, economically, and militarily under USSR-style containment strategy when China is your largest trading partner, and you depend on China to get out of the economic debacle (caused by the US mind you)
What sane nation would go against their main bilateral trading partner and world's engine of growth to address America's unruly and undiscipline needs and paranoia of losing relative power in Asia?
Most of Asia see US as a failed state and see China as the future anyways.
Posted By: phead128
Date: December 7, 2010 03:30:12 PM
How can you 'contain' a country that is equivalent to FIVE (5) United States countries, or TWO (2) EU-size countries?
With dinky Taiwan, Japan, Korea?
What if these nations are locked into China's economic clout?
The economic clout of QUARTER (1/4) of Humanity on Earth is a pretty strong driving force for good bilateral relations.
Not everyone is stuck in "Cold-War enemy deprivation" syndrome like the unruly and undisciplined United States, spending trillions on desert fiascos, crashing housing bubbles, spending unfrivalous amounts of bailouts, healthcare reform, renewable energy, wars abroad, etc...
