Global warming supporters are trying to recover from the recent email scandal but their science is as flawed as ever by James Luko
(centrist)
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Is the Earth Warming ?
Globally, annuallyaveraged surface temperature has increased by just under 1 C since the late 1800s. The rate of increase over the past 50 years is nearly twice that of the past century. However, this warming trend is not uniform across the planet. National Climatic Data Center: US Department of Commerce-
One should point out that temperatures in the " troposphere" where "weather" occurs in our atmosphere, upward temperature is NOT global and in the areas of the troposphere which show temperature changes- there has been only a slight increase. According to global warming theory- temperature change and rate' of temperature change in the troposphere should be much higher than surface temperatures- they are NOT. This sort of kicks the theoretical structures behind global warming right in the face. In fact, measurements of troposphere temperatures were so at odds with global warming theory, that "NEW" " ADJUSTMENTS" were made in climate models used by the IPCC in order to show that yes- indeed the troposphere was warming up "just as predicted" how convenient when one can just adjust' the numbers, models, methods of analysis of raw data to fit YOUR version of the truth.
Co2 Levels today trending above historical averages- data in IPCC report taken from NOAA
Yes? sort of, but not really- depends on your "time frame" of the word " historical" !
The NOAA (widely cited in the IPCC report) craftily uses graphs showing past PPM (parts per million) Co2 from 800,000 years ago- but why 800,000 years ? Why not 1,000,000 or 5,000,000 years ? Why 800,000 years ? In fact, 1,000,000 years or 800,000 years or 10,000,000 years is a BLIP in the life span of the earth- being approximately 4,540,000,000 (FOUR point FIVE BILLION) years old. Global warmers pick the 800k figure- which comes from NOAA-Dept. of Climatic Data because it "masks" the fact that if you pick dates "earlier" than 800k you would see that present Co2 levels are, on average, much LOWER historically, and for the fact that before 800k time period, the earth's Co2 levels were much higher than the present time. Obviously the IPCC is "cherry-picking" the dates from which to measure graphs in order to show that we are in some "extra-ordinary" Co2 level change- which MUST be attributable to man-made Co2.
Natural Cycles of warming and cooling- irrespective of volcano's and or man-made activities which are dwarfed by effects of increasing and decreasing solar radiation, axial tilt movements, sun activity, solar orbital changes, etc. In fact, ice core and other data indicate that the pattern of ice ages over the past 40 million years have gone through a "natural" cycle- where the earth has glaciated- and then thawed- repeating this cycle every 40-100,000 years. The last global glaciation ended about 10,000 years ago. This clearly shows that the earth has been cyclical in its warming and cooling trends, irrespective of human activity.
The SUN- towards a RED GIANT
The Sun has a natural life cycle which is leading it towards becoming a RED GIANT before it dies out. In this cycle, now and in the future, the Sun is "expanding" and in getting bigger- it's getting HOTTER EACH DAY ! Could a warming and expanding sun have "anything" to do with global warming? (even considering that NOT all areas of the earth shows any global warming but in fact- a cooling trend nor are temperatures in the troposphere consistent with current global warming theories).
Solar variations are shown to have more correlation to weather and long term climate patterns than other sources such as Co2 levels.
Current global warming theory says that "temperature extremes" should be increasing, yet, a simple glance at temperature extremes from NOAA clearly indicate that the vast majority of highest temperatures recorded have occurred from 1890-1940, which contradicts current global warming theory.
The IPCC report cites numerous data, such as ice sheet melting, etc. which are in fact short term spikes- and uses this spiked data for long term trend extrapolation, ignoring that many of these spikes even out the next year. (e.g.- Greenland ice sheet melting was accelerating 2004 and 2005, yet it returned to normal levels in 2006, yet the IPCC use the spiked year of 2004 to make an extrapolation of how soon the entire ice sheet of Greenland will melt).
A thousand years ago temperatures were warmer than now, yet, the Co2 concentration was 100 ppm less than today- which hardly establishes a link between higher Co2 levels and higher temperatures.
Three significant and repeated factors must be taken note of when examining global warming science as explained by the IPCC and other literature; (expansive reliance on;
1. Estimates- not clearly recorded facts
2. Climate models- which of course can show any results depending on data "assumptions" of the future in order to predict future climate- or temperature changes.
3. Caveats that state "although this theory is based on incomplete science- or- we however do not fully understand the mechanisms involved."
Much of climate science is FAR from being fully understood and the variables are extreme when relating to long term climate change- in as so far that we can't fully explain current or past climate, weather, etc.
In fact, higher Co2 levels have only contributed to expansion of species, increased biodiversity and richer conditions for robust plant growth, and that it would take Co2 levels a multiple of 6x higher than present levels before reaching any lethal Co2 level (1,800 ppm to 2,100 ppm).
One would also notice that the IPCC and global warmers take snapshot facts and apply it as "global" which is clearly incorrect. Some parts of the earth are cooling, some parts of the polar ice are expanding not contracting, some parts of the earth have much lower average weather disturbances rather than more (as a cause of global warming) and thus it may be more appropriate to call "so called" current data as indicating "possible" PARTIAL GLOBAL WARMING.
IPCC - UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (U.S.)
Did you like this article? If you did, Thumb It! 18
thumbs so far
The views expressed
in this article are those of James Luko only and
do not represent the views of Nolan Chart, LLC or its affiliates.
James Luko is solely responsible for the contents
of this article and is not an employee or otherwise affiliated
with Nolan Chart, LLC in his/her role as a columnist.
