The article analyzes the recent study leaked by the German Military that reveals their panic over the prospect of a peak oil event occurring in the near future. by Bruce Driggers
(libertarian)
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
The German blogosphere has been buzzing lately with the news of a "leaked" report from the Future Analysis Department of the Bundeswehr Transformation Center, a "think tank" intricately tied to Germany's federal military complex. The report discusses the effects of an impending "Peak Oil" event on the global power structure, and how this event will specifically affect the German Republic.
As reported in Der Spiegel, the report--which has a striking resemblance to the Joint Operating Environment Report by the United States Joint Forces Command from February of this year--was "leaked" after being withheld from publication by the Bundeswehr, most likely because of the alarming extrapolations the report gleans from the prevailing data.
(Much less discussed is the reason for the "leak". The most likely explanation is that the report was leaked by a participant who believed the findings were too important to remain secret. However, it's also interesting to note that German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who labels herself the Climate Chancellor, has been in conflict of late with the environmental community over her commitment to extending the lifespan of the nation's nuclear power plants, ostensibly to allow greater flexibility for the development of alternative fuels. By emphasizing the precariousness of Germany's dependence on foreign oil, this report could arguably serve her political interests.)
Leave aside, for the moment, the fact that the "Peak Oil" concept is highly controversial and riddled with uncertainties. To the western members of the global power elite--whose existence is fueled by oil and militarism--the very idea of peak oil is terrifying.
Analyze this quote from the aforementioned Joint Operating Environment report: "One should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number of totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their nations by ruthless conquest." (It is unclear whether the authors of the report were referring to Germany, Japan, or Great Britain.)
The United States is the world's largest oil-consuming nation, with China in hot pursuit at number two and Germany placing seventh. Buried inside these figures is the fact that the US Military, with it's global network of bases and multi-front wars, is widely believed to be the world's largest single oil-consuming entity. How this consumption affects the overall numbers per nation is not clear.
What IS clear, however, is that the western corporate-military oligarchy is in a panic over the prospect of their power base being disrupted. Here are some of the most telling parts of the "study", as described in Spiegel Online:
"For importers of oil more competition for resources will mean an increase in the number of nations competing for favor with oil-producing nations. For the latter this opens up a window of opportunity which can be used to implement political, economic or ideological aims. As this window of time will only be open for a limited period, "this could result in a more aggressive assertion of national interests on the part of the oil-producing nations."
We see here Germany's dawning realization that they may not be able to rely on the United States' aggressive dominance over middle eastern oil producers indefinitely. The stark economic realities of resource depletion--so long delayed by the western world's ability to control and manipulate weaker petroleum-rich countries--are starting to weigh heavy on the minds of those who hold the reins of power. The spectre of the OPEC Embargo of the seventies--and the geopolitical havoc it caused--looms large.
"The authors paint a bleak picture of the consequences resulting from a shortage of petroleum.[...] Oil is used directly or indirectly in the production of 95 percent of all industrial goods. Price shocks could therefore be seen in almost any industry and throughout all stages of the industrial supply chain. In the medium term the global economic system and every market-oriented national economy would collapse.'"
This is the real fear: that the suppliers can create and profit from the destabilization of western oil-dependent economies. These countries, America included, have already impoverished their revenue base by profligate spending--not just on military adventurism, but on ill-conceived and unsustainable entitlement programs that create a dependency underclass that will become restless when the steady flow of transfer payments begins to wane. No country, least of all Germany, wants to be the next Greece.
"A conceivable alternative would be government rationing and the allocation of important goods or the setting of production schedules and other short-term coercive measures to replace market-based mechanisms in times of crisis."
To the libertarian student of statism, this is a predictable prescription. Unable or unwilling to curtail their out-of-control bureaucracies and their insatiable demand for resources, governments resort to rationing under the pretense that they need to manage the messy business of resource allocation in order to prevent chaos and disorder. We will be informed that we must "go green" to help stave off "global warming" and to conserve precious resources that need to be utilized by our protector-states in the war on terrorism.
"The Bundeswehr study also raises fears for the survival of democracy itself. Parts of the population could perceive the upheaval triggered by peak oil "as a general systemic crisis." This would create "room for ideological and extremist alternatives to existing forms of government." Fragmentation of the affected population is likely and could "in extreme cases lead to open conflict."
This is what really gives the political class the horrors. For while the peak oil panic provides many opportunities for them to fret about international wrangling over access to petroleum, it's the loss of control over the revenue base (i.e., "us", the peasants) that truly makes them contemplate their mortality. Peak oil means the jig is up for the Global Military-Industial Complex, and they're scrambling to find a way--any way--to keep their power from slipping away
This report offers a rare glimpse into the thinking of the powerbrokers and their attitudes toward their citizens and the rest of the world. The days of easy oil may be over for them, and they're not happy about it. Consider this a warning.
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