It's comical to watch the financial channels' pundits and Obama Administration officials almost on a daily basis tell us that we are well into an economic recovery. by Kenn Jacobine
(libertarian)
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Yes, there have been times when the economic data looked promising. During some weeks first time unemployment claims have been down. The economy has grown between two and three percent some months. And there have even been some months when new home sales have swelled and the prices of houses in general have increased. But the fact of the matter is that the worst of the crisis is yet to come and of course like the initial crisis which has lasted for close to three years already it will be Washington's fault.
So, what are the indications that we are not well into an economic recovery and the worst of the economic pain is yet to come? For one thing, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the government's official judge of economic expansion and contraction, has not pronounced the recession that began in 2007 to be over. Additionally, just yesterday the government announced the economy lost 125,000 jobs last month. The real unemployment rate which takes into account discouraged and underemployed workers is still north of 16 percent Food stamp usage has skyrocketed to a record high of 40.2 million recipients.  Bank repossessions are still a massive problem. They hit a record 93,777 in May which represented a 44 percent increase over May of the previous year. Worst yet, all 50 states are experiencing year-over-year increases. Banks still aren't lending; consumers aren't spending; and the national deficit and debt is in outer space with nothing good to show for it.
In all fairness, as mentioned above, there has been some good economic news from time to time. For instance, housing prices did increase in April. But most analysts attribute the rise to the rush to take advantage of the government tax credit for homebuyers which expired at the end of that month. Since the tax credit expired almost all housing market barometers have dropped significantly.
Then there were those months that jobs were produced. But, again, this had more to do with government gimmicks - 2010 census hiring and government spending then real economic progress.Â
To be sure, some Americans are doing quite well in this recession and this might account for the president's insistence that the recession is over and prosperity is just around the corner. Who is doing well? Well, folks that live close to Washington and Wall Street are doing very well. Forbes Magazine has reported that 12 of the 25 riches counties in the country border the nation's capital and financial headquarters. It's no wonder since government workers receive 45 percent more in pay and benefits than their private sector counterparts. This is pretty good when you consider that it's almost impossible to lose a government job even in economic recessions. Of course, given the huge taxpayer bailouts to Wall Street bankers and the generous Federal Reserve policies towards the same it is also easy to see why suburban New York City is riding high in these tough times.
Besides the bureaucrats and bailout recipients several political cronies of the president have cashed in during this recession. According to Floyd Brown and Lee Troxler in their book, Killing Wealth, Freeing Wealth, Larry Summers, chair of Obama's Council of Economic Advisors, made $5.2 million in 2008 through his hedge fund. Tom Donilon, a deputy National Security Advisor, made $3.9 million in legal fees representing Citigroup and Goldman Sachs. As members of Obama's inner circle, they are uniquely positioned to guarantee that federal policies continue to favor their interests.
And let's not forget Obama's huge financial supporter and billionaire buddy, George Soros. According to Brown and Troxler, the financier pulled in $1.1 billion in trading profits in 2008. After helping to finance Obama's White House run, the president has wasted little time in rewarding his benefactor. It is ironic that their partnership involves deepwater drilling.
The president and his cohorts in the media can spin economic news anyway they wish. But, after 17 months in office and trillions of dollars spent to stimulate the economy the only thing the president's policies have produced is more debt and predictions from many analysts that we are headed for a double-dip recession. This should be no surprise - since similar economic policies deepened and prolonged the recession of 1929. Then, Americans had to wait about 16 years for good economic times to return. Given this president's current propensity to spend there's no telling how long it will take for this recession to end.
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Posted By: Republicae
Date: July 8, 2010 08:38:56 PM
"We will not have any more crashes in our time."
- John Maynard Keynes in 1927
"I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future."
- E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928
"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."
- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928
"No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment...and the highest record of years of prosperity. In the foreign field there is peace, the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding."
- Calvin Coolidge December 4, 1928
"There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash."
- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929
"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929
"This crash is not going to have much effect on business."
- Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929
"There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday... I have no fear of another comparable decline."
- Arthur W. Loasby (President of the Equitable Trust Company), quoted in NYT, Friday, October 25, 1929
"We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices."
- Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929
"This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years."
- R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929
"Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted"
- E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929
"Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks... Unless we are to have a panic -- which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom."
- R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929
"The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services...America is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin."
- Stuart Chase (American economist and author), NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929
"Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street."
- The Times of London, November 2, 1929
"The Wall Street crash doesn't mean that there will be any general or serious business depression... For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game... Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before."
- Business Week, November 2, 1929
"...despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail prolonged further liquidation..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929
"... a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall."
- HES, November 10, 1929
"The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most."
- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929
"In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect."
- Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 15, 1929
"Financial storm definitely passed."
- Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929
"I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress."
- Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929
"I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence."
- Herbert Hoover, December 1929
"[1930 will be] a splendid employment year."
- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's Forecast, December 1929
"For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930
"...there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930
"There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about."
- Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930
"The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity."
- Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930
"... the outlook continues favorable..."
- HES Mar 29, 1930
"... the outlook is favorable..."
- HES Apr 19, 1930
"While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us."
- Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930
"...by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..."
- HES May 17, 1930
"Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over."
- Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930
"... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..."
- HES June 28, 1930
"... the present depression has about spent its force..."
- HES, Aug 30, 1930
"We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression."
- HES Nov 15, 1930
"Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible."
- HES Oct 31, 1931
"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."
- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933
