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Topic: Ron Paul

Is Ron Paul Really Leading AOL Straw Poll? (revised)


Can these numbers be skewed too? Can we trust anything online??!
by Chase Lepard
(libertarian)
Saturday, December 29, 2007

I had a friend over tonight, and she said, "I like Ron Paul's ideas, but he won't win.. So, I'm not even going to waste my vote."

As all of you can imagine, I about lost my mind!

After a loud "WHAAAAAAAAATT?!?!?!"

I said to her, "Why would think that he has no chance of winning?!"

She said, and I quote, "He's losing in all the polls"

Once I picked myself up off the floor....

I said to her, "Follow me!"

I showed her the Straw Poll Results on RonPaul2008.com

I then showed her Nolanchart.com

Where I see an article titled:

Ron Paul Real Poll Showing Stunning Victory In Sight

I got excited, because I thought I could show her undeniable evidence that Ron Paul is REALLY leading in the REAL polls.

BOOOYYYY WAS I WRONG!!

This AOL Poll, that Jim O'Donnell was pointing to in his article, was said to be:

"TAMPER PROOF"

"ONE VOTE PER PERSON"

"MOST ACCURATE POLL"

so on, so forth, blah, blah, blah, yadda, yadda, yadda....

NOT TRUE!!

Sadly, it was soooo very untrue.

I did the first thing that came to mind, which is probably the first idea a lot of the computer saavy Paulites would be doing...

I CLEARED MY COOKIES

I then proceeded to REFRESH THE PAGE

You'll never guess what happened...

Okay, maybe you will... but i'm still going to tell you!!

THE POLL ASKED ME TO VOTE AGAIN!!

I was able to vote 3 times...

I could have kept doing this, but i decided right then to let you all know about this situation!

HERE'S WHAT I'M GETTING AT!!!

DON'T TRUST INTERNET POLLS!

DO NOT TRUST THEM!

NO MATTER HOW "TAMPER PROOF" THEY SAY THEY ARE!!

How do you explain to your friend that Ron Paul really has a chance, when MSM is telling them about SPAMBOTS... and you prove MSM right......

At least the HuckaDUD and RP's MONEY BOMB tell the true story...

RON PAUL DOES HAVE A CHANCE!!

I know it, you know it, even Tucker knows it!!

There is only one Poll that really matters...
and we all do that poll in November '08
(hopefully without "hanging chad" problems)

In 2004, I only knew 2 people... out of ALL my friends, family, coworkers... that said they were going to vote for Bush... and we all know how that turned out!

We need to show our support, tell our friends/family, and more importantly VOTE!!

This may be the most important election in our lifetime.

ITS TIME TO LET THE GOVERNMENT KNOW
WE WILL NOT SIT BACK AND LET THEM CONTROL US!

REMEMBER THAT DOCUMENT THAT SAYS,

WE THE PEOPLE!!

DIGG THIS ARTICLE

------EDIT(12-29-07|12:00pm)------------------------------------------------------

I am sorry that I did not look into the problem as much as I should have. I was upset because I thought, once again, I was getting innaccurate claims from MSM.

A few people are saying that the pool is still "Tamper Proof" and that they don't count your second vote, even if you delete your cookies.

Even if that is true, and I'm sure these people aren't lying....

that doesn't change "tamper proof" the poll is!!

I can vote on this computer, and with my handy dandy laptop, I can walk down to starbucks, mcdonalds, or any other of the hundreds of unsecure wireless connections in my town (or any town for that matter) and get on their internet and vote, vote on our 3 work computers that are on different ip's... and then go to my moms, and my grandmas and vote there.

I can vote as many times as I want on that poll. All it would take is a little driving around to pick up different wireless connections.

My message is clear, whether the AOL poll is accurate or not.
(not, being the probable answer)

All I am saying is, YOU CAN'T TRUST POLLS!

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©2007 Chase Lepard, all rights reserved. You must have written permission from the author in order to republish this work.
Published: Saturday, December 29, 2007
Last modified: Saturday, December 29, 2007

The views expressed in this article are those of Chase Lepard only and do not represent the views of Nolan Chart, LLC or its affiliates. Chase Lepard is solely responsible for the contents of this article and is not an employee or otherwise affiliated with Nolan Chart, LLC in his/her role as a columnist.

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Posted By: Colin Osterman
Date: 2007-12-29 10:08:39

Chase,

 You

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Posted By: Colin Osterman
Date: 2007-12-29 10:11:50

For some reason my last comment got cut off.  You are dead wrong about the AOL poll.  It is tamper proof.  Just because you can vote over and over again in the graphic doesn

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Posted By: Scott
Date: 2007-12-29 10:15:34

Try the AOL poll again. Only one of your multiple votes will actually count.

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Posted By: Justin Sayne
Date: 2007-12-29 10:18:59

How can someone "waste" a vote?

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Posted By: Glen
Date: 2007-12-29 10:35:54

The tamper proofing is on both the client side and the server side. On the client side a cookie is stored when vote, and based on that cookie

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Posted By: Allen
Date: 2007-12-29 10:44:52

For the good Dr. to win we must have fair elections, so I want to pass along info regarding the "National Clean Elections Lawsuit" (N-CEL) and would encourage everyone to do the same and keep close watch on its progress. The Docket can be seen at http://www.wethepeoplefoundation.org/PROJECTS/NCEL/PACER/Docket/DocketSheet12-08-07.pdf, scroll to the bottom for its current status; or visit the home page at www.ncel.w4sp.com

I

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Posted By: Robert E.
Date: 2007-12-29 10:46:29

Here is another piece of evidence that the AOL Straw Poll is likely to be very true. The spread between DEM and REP for total votes cast is consistently hovering between 5 and 6 points.

Here are the rounded numbers at the time I write this:

TOTAL: 360,000 - 100%

GOP: 189,000 - 52.50%

DEM: 171,000 - 47.50%

Surely, the spread would have to be much larger is somebody was succesfully spam botting for Ron Paul.

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Posted By: Chase Lepard
Date: 2007-12-29 10:57:18

Even if that is true, and I

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Posted By: glen
Date: 2007-12-29 10:57:32

I don

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Posted By: Chase Lepard
Date: 2007-12-29 10:58:41

Even if that is true, and I

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Posted By: Glen
Date: 2007-12-29 11:00:29

I believe my comments are being cut off when I use an apostrphe, so I wont use any.  Any subsequest vote from the same computer is not counted in the tally.  One computer, one vote.

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Posted By: DougPD
Date: 2007-12-29 11:08:05

The thing is, ALL candidates supporters can skew these online polls. Why isn't that happening?

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Posted By: Chase Lepard
Date: 2007-12-29 11:11:35

I never said that the poll was being skewed.

In my opinion if the poll was 100% tamper proof the results would still show Ron Paul in the lead!

Ron Paul has more supporters than people are willing to believe.

I just want people to know that these results CAN be tampered with, not that they ARE being tampered with.

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Posted By: Scott
Date: 2007-12-29 11:17:59

I would also add... Mitt Romney has already shown with the Florida straw poll that he will actually fund vote spamming (some people voted 80 times for Romney at an outdoor event). Seems to me Romney would have 90% of the vote by now if there was really a problem.

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Posted By: Cad Avre
Date: 2007-12-29 11:58:10

Let's see, you don't want waste your vote because you beleive your choice will not win? Hmmmmm? So instead, you vote against your aspirations for self and country because you want bragging rights in the bread line and claim the tinsel fame because you voted for the guy that won?

That's like surrendering so you can declare victory, isn't it? Well good for you! Proud without pride. Love is hate. War is Peace. Think about it - everybody else is just another corporate owned version of Bush with a better vocabulary. Isn't it about time you voted for America, for your neighbor's well being - for your children - for your parents - for our future?

Do you really want this never ending repeat of failures? The Euro cost 80 cents a couple of years ago. It costs a dollar fifty now. Are you so wealthy that for a brief moment of shameless vanity under the glittering disco ball of being associated with your peceived winner that you are willing to risk everything? What if your perceived

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Posted By: rhys
Date: 2007-12-29 12:04:32

I don't trust any polls. I don't trust anyone who tells me that they have special information. I only care about fundraising and doners. Paul has raised front-tier money from a lot of individual doners.

Q3

Clinton - 32,665 doners average $1785/doner

Obama - 41,952 doners average $1265/doner

Giuliani - 25,457 doners average $1520/doner

Romney - 27,197 doners average $1371/doner

Huckabee - 1,517 doners average $988/doner

November 5:

Paul - 38,610 doners average $100/doner

December 16:

Paul - 57,668 doners average $100/doner

Paul had more doners in one day, than the other candidates could muster in one quarter. That is why he is electable. Only a self-selecting sample that requires sacrifice is a proper indication of candidate support, and that is exactly what fundraising is.

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Posted By: James Moore
Date: 2007-12-29 12:07:09

I've been following the AOL poll for about a week now, and there's definitely SOMEthing going on. I think the poll IS being spammed, but it is also being maintained by something, because the vote totals have gone all the way up to over 189,000 on two of the days I looked at, and on the following day, it's around 125,000. Does this mean duplicate votes are being detected and removed? I think it's pretty likely. Like the man said though, ALL polls should be taken with a grain of salt. The only poll that matters is the actual vote, and I pray that all us Paul supporters will turn out in droves, regardless of any obstacles natural or artificial. My other prayer is for those who count the votes to be watched like hawks and videotaped for the whole country to review. I'm glad there will be observers traveling to NH and IA to try and keep things honest this time.

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Posted By: Robert C
Date: 2007-12-29 12:12:30

If your friend thinks that voting for someone

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Posted By: Tracker
Date: 2007-12-29 12:32:22

The thing is, ALL candidates supporters can skew these online polls. Why isn't that happening?

Because RP supporters are EVIL!!! Its obvious to anyone who knows anything that most everyone is quite happy with the direction this country is headed. There's just no way so many Americans could be that disgusted with the way our God-chosen leaders in Washington are doing their jobs. It's just not possible! It must be a trick!

Those people who are true red-blooded Americans support the wars, and would never jeopardize the safety of our country by suggesting that we should bring our troops home. They would never want the DEA to allow sick and dying people to smoke pot. They would never be so selfish as to even think about getting rid of the IRS -- money that the government desperately needs in these dangerous times. And they would never think that a campaign contribution from big oil, pharma, or defense is somehow worse than one from a white supremist. And they would certainly NEVER do anything fraudulent, like manipulating a poll.

It's obvious that these RP people are just a small group of malcontents, who couldn't possibly have any relevance in our infallible election system. There are not very many of them, they're just loud.

Oh, and check out http://blackboxvoting.org/

:D 

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Posted By: Kasie M
Date: 2007-12-29 12:36:07

The thing I don't understand is if Ron Paul people are skewing the vote by voting over and over...then isn't it possible for OTHER candidate supporters to be doing the same??? That goes for all online voting AND text message votes during the debates. In the end...everyone has the same opportunity to beat the system. Right? The only difference I see between Ron Paul supporters and

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Posted By: Mitch W
Date: 2007-12-29 13:33:41

I agree. I was worried about this when I first heard about clearing the cookies, as well. Then I heard that it does not work, and I loosened up a bit. While I didnt try, it I hope its true.

The thing I am more concerned with, though, is the Paulites who are rampant on the youtube vids that are prompting people to clear the cookies and vote a ton. This is ridiculous and does nothing but give the MSM and opposition a little more credibility when they call us cheaters or nutjobs.

Do EVERYONE a favor. Go to the AOL poll. If you have yet to vote, do it. Then do nothing more. If we want to show our true numbers and our true colors, we should stop trying to cheat.

We can't lie in the primaries.

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Posted By: Duh
Date: 2007-12-29 13:35:06

As for voting on multiple computers, just remember that if someone has already voted on a computer, none of the subsequent votes will count.

So if someone at Starbucks or the library has already voted for Thompson, then your sneaky vote for Ron Paul on the same computers isn't going to get counted.

As your (not very bright) friend said,

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Posted By: smtwngrl
Date: 2007-12-29 13:35:26

Right. You can't trust the offline or online polls--they both have different problems. Even if you could manage a poll that was accurate in regards to people's opinions, that doesn't tell who is going to show up on election day and who is not. Most Ron Paul supporters I know will be there, even if they have to walk through snow. The same can't be said for other candidates. Hopefully, your friend will change her mind after the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary. And by the way, I hope you don't really think that the only

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Posted By: smtwngrl
Date: 2007-12-29 13:38:53

"poll" that counts is in November 2008. The primaries start within **days**, for the earlier states, and most of them will be **over within 6 weeks**.

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Posted By: Oscar DeGrouch
Date: 2007-12-29 13:45:09

You tell them this:

 

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Posted By: Oscar DeGrouch
Date: 2007-12-29 13:47:38

This comment board evidently hates quotations, single or double.  WTFIUWD?

You tell the naysayers this:

If everyone who wanted to vote for him but said he will not win actually voted for him, Ron Paul would win in a landslide. 

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Posted By: Darren D.
Date: 2007-12-29 13:47:57

Okay let me get this straight. The poll is being spammed...Why is Ron Paul not winning in all states? Why is Dennis K at 4%? Why is Dr. Paul winning by 20% in California, but is in a statistical tie in Arkansas, North Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina. It would seem much easier to spam the lower voted in states.

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Posted By: David
Date: 2007-12-29 19:02:56

I've been following the results of the AOL Straw Poll and they seem reliable. There isn't a huge difference in the number of Republican vs. Democratic voters. The Democratic candidates seem to be pretty much in line with mainstream polls. Kucinich and Gravel, for instance, have very low percentages and they tend to have more support on the internet than IRL. The Republican candidates also seem to be in line with the mainstream polls, except Ron Paul is gathering much more support. If you think about it, the results make sense. The other candidates are only regional favorites. Huckabee is doing good in the southeast, Romney is doing good in New England and the heavily Mormon areas of the southwest, McCain is doing good in parts of the west, Giuliani is doing good in the Mid-Atlantic. Ron Paul has universal support.

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Posted By: Jon
Date: 2007-12-29 22:16:48

I just refreshed after clearing my cookies...didn't work. Of course I did vote on 2 computers......once for my home state, and I claimed once in another state that RP was losing in at the time. Only becuase I put no faith in Online Polls because there is always a way to fudge the numbers. Whether it's "We the People" "Spambots" or the people hosting the poll that want a certain outcome, there are many ways to tamper with an online poll.

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Posted By: Don
Date: 2007-12-30 08:14:19

I just tried voting, successfully, and I'm a not a US citizen. They are allowing non-us citizens to vote. This could skew the results in favor of Ron Paul as unlike the other candidates he is much loved all over the world.

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Posted By: Saint Subversive
Date: 2007-12-30 09:13:37

Unfortunately your friend's attitude is all too common among voters on both sides. "I like him but he cant win so Im not going to waste my vote". Its really one of the worst excuses anyone could come up with to not support a candidate they believe in. Its the same problem on the Dem side with Bill Richardson, the most often used defense for not considering him is "I like Richardson but he cant win", despite the fact that Larry Sabato and others have said he is the strongest candidate they have for the general election. This is just incredibly wrongheaded logic. Vote for who you think will make the best president, stop with this silly idea that you have to blindly get behind a "frontrunner" and show solidarity with the other partisan sheep.

Shake up the system and send a message to both parties that youre mad as hell, and youre not going to take this anymore. Your vote is never "wasted" as long as you truly believe in it. When you blindly toss it to a candidate you despise, that's when youre wasting it, because then youre just another meaningless statistic.

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Posted By: No Name Supplied
Date: 2008-01-02 07:49:20

it does seem tamper proof. If you vote multiple times by clearing your cookies the extra votes don't actually show up on the poll. Ofcourse one could use different computers at different places, but this doesn't really Ron Paul a 12% plus advantage over any of the candidates. Sure he has more internet support, but this is the age of the internet, not the telephone. So, why put more emphasis on phone polls? Especially when this year is bring all kinds of new voters out.

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Posted By: Dick Collinsworth
Date: 2008-01-26 23:38:53

I don't know if you can vote more than one time in this poll. If you can't then it's accurate, and if you can everyone else can, and assuming on balance, your going to come to the same result, because all of the candidates are going to have extra "votes". So read em and weep folks, the Ron Paul American Revolution has started and it's not going to stop until he moves into the White House and America is restored to a Republic form of government.... God Bless America!!

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Posted By: melinda
Date: 2008-05-16 08:20:26

2 days ago ron paul was dominating  the aol straw pole , now he is loseing it terribly , hard to believe that has to be honest ???? after all he did have all states expet for 11 the other night .

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