Topic: Ron Paul
Setting the Ron Paul Mendoza Line With the Iowa Caucus just a few days away, the polls have Romney and Huckabee battling it out for first place. Who gets third is the real story.by DigitalBob
(Libertarian)
Saturday, December 29, 2007
The Mendoza Line, according to the all-knowing Wikipedia, is named for Minnesota Twins shortstop Mario Mendoza. His career batting average was .215, close to the league average, but hit .198 in the 1979 season. George Brett then coined the phrase when he said he was off to a bad start when he batted below the "Mendoza Line".
I bring this up because I heard the phrase used tonight (12/28/07) on MSNBC's Hardball with Chris Mathews. NBC Political News Director Chuck Todd was on the show trying to assess the chances of the candidates in Iowa. Todd looked at the polls and shook his head saying that you can't take a 10 point shift at face value. The polls don't take into account the enthusiasm of the candidates' supporters, observed Todd.
Right at the end, after the lead polling Republican candidates were mentioned, Todd said that you can't count out the Ron Paul Mendoza Line.
Ron Paul is typically ignored by the major media and dismissed by Republican old hands. Any candidate who cannot get more votes than Paul in the Iowa primary needs to seriously reconsider his viability.
But where should this line be set? For the optimistic Paul supporter, Chase Martyn at the Iowa Independent blog puts Paul as third. Huckabee's recent rise gives him first, and Romney's deep pockets gives him second.
Most polls I've seen put Paul as fifth, sometimes sixth, and sometimes not even listed. Taking third in Iowa would be huge.
Below this line, drawing on Martyn's analysis, are McCain, Thompson, Giuliani, and then Hunter.
McCain and Giuliani, knowing that they won't come in first in Iowa are concentrating in New Hampshire and Florida, respectively. Even so, dropping below Paul's Mendoza Line will give those campaigns reason to reevaluate their strategies.
The two most at risk of dropping out after Iowa are Thompson and Hunter. Previously I commented that Thompson is getting low on funds, but he was able to stir his supporters to raise over $260,000 to air a new ad called "Substance" in just a few days. Thompson is expected to finish third or fourth. Hunter consistently polls about 1%. Hunter may want to think about who he wants to endorse.
Paul's finishing third would give him the sustained media attention that internet traffic and one-day fundraising have failed to do. You would see a lot of analysis recalling Kerry vs. Dean in 2004.
John McCain has gotten a lot of mileage from recent polls (compiled at USAElectionPolls.com) showing him resurging in Iowa. The LA Times poll has him closing in on third at 14%, with Thompson at 15%; Paul and Giuliani are tied for fifth at 4%. The Strategic Vision poll has McCain and Thompson tied at third with 11%; Giuliani edges Paul out at 6% to 3%.
When looking at New Hampshire, less than a week after Iowa, Paul places a solid fifth. Romney and McCain battle for first and second, Giuliani and Huckabee for third and fourth. The below the current Paul Mendoza Line are the rest.
South Carolina is where Thompson has the most chance of winning, but Huckabee has gained ground there. Florida shows Giuliani on top, with everyone else shuffling below.
Each candidate who finishes a contest below the Line must ask himself, "if I can't get third or fourth or above Paul, why am I still in this race?" Even when that candidate stays in, that question will haunt him for months.
With this much uncertainty, the Republican race may go beyond Feb.5 with three, or perhaps even four, candidates. The media dream would be a floor fight the week of Sep. 1 in Minneapolis.
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2007 DigitalBob, all rights reserved.
Published: Saturday, December 29, 2007
Last modified: Saturday, December 29, 2007
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You are completely wrong i your assesment of what the results will be. Dr. paul will place a solid second in Iowa and possibly win NH. SC and Nevada will be won by Paul.
I also place Paul at second place. Due to the ferocity of his following and the tendency of Iowans to vote for more traditional Christian candidates. He is being grossly underestimated.
Why is there such a monstrous disparity between what the polls show and what is actually happening? Why does Ron Paul win every televised poll? Why does he win every online poll? Why has he won almost half of the real-life straw polls across the nation? Why has he raised more money in a single day than any candidate has in the history of the country? Why are his signs and supporters the only ones I see promoting anybody? Seriously, it's time to get real -- the polls are bullshit. If Paul doesn't win this nomination, it's officially impossible for anybody to take the civil route to the presidency.
The weird thing is that the percentage of votes to take at least 2nd place in Iowa and 1st in NH is in the cards for Paul. That the media has refused to practise journalism and reported what's there doesn't mean the numbers are not there. It'll be beyond me and the average person out there, how on earth are the media going to explain WHY they were so far off on the so-called "polls" after RP scores second and first places in these caucases.
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2007 DigitalBob, all rights reserved.