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columnist: AmericanShiite

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Topic: Political Theory

The World in 10 Years


Where will America (and the world) be in 10 years?
by AmericanShiite
(liberal)
Thursday, April 15, 2010

Where will America be by 2020? It's hard to say. Estimates say that by that year, we will be a white minority nation. Some consider that good, some consider that bad. It's now clear that the current Tea Party is different from the original anti-tax protests in 2008; it is slowly becoming more and more neo-conservative.

The Republican Party will split in two. You cannot put everyone right of center into one party. Not many will claim that Mike Gravel left-libertarians would go well with Nancy Pelosi left-statists. Why should one expect Bush/Cheney right-statists to go with Collin Powell right-centrists and Ron Paul libertarians? It could be that Sarah Palin becomes the new face of the party, and the libertarians and centrists create a "New Republican" Party. Or Ron Paul becomes the new face of the party and the neocons create a new "Tea Party." The chart below uses the assumption that both parties break off (forcing the old Republicans to dissolve) and the Democratic Party becomes socialistic.

What about the world at large? The traditional notions of East-West, or Communism-Capitalism no longer apply. What we can expect now is an India-Iran bloc, a China-Pakistan bloc, and an America-NATO bloc. Russia would float between blocs, allying with either India, China or America at different times. A reformist liberal-Islamic party will probably take power in Iran. The blocs are unlikely to go to war, though. All three rely on each other for trade, military hardware and all of them have a common enemy in al-Queda (though both the Pakistanis and Americans had previously supported them).

What should we do now? Choose the right allies. Pakistan has an agenda to keep India out of Afghanistan, even if it means allying with Bin Laden. Isreal's reputation and Netanyahu's actions have not been helping our international standing. China's human rights are not exactly clean, and neither are Iran's. We shouldn't be supporting regime change in any country (as it is up to their citizens, not our CIA), but we can apply pressure on them. The Green Movement is a purely Persian issue, and Tianamen Square protestors would rather the Yankees stay out.

Well, that's my view. What's yours?

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©2010 AmericanShiite, all rights reserved. You must have written permission from the author in order to republish this work.
Published: Thursday, April 15, 2010
Last modified: Thursday, April 15, 2010

The views expressed in this article are those of AmericanShiite only and do not represent the views of Nolan Chart, LLC or its affiliates. AmericanShiite is solely responsible for the contents of this article and is not an employee or otherwise affiliated with Nolan Chart, LLC in his/her role as a columnist.

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Posted By: Ross Williams
Date: 2010-04-16 12:44:55

That's a mighty ambitious sea-change you're prophecying, there.

I don't see so much change, but I can describe it in more words.  At least that's something.

Estimates say that by that year, we will be a white minority nation.

Demographers are dimwits.  I should know; they come out of my academic discipline.  I spent my entire grad school arguing them into silence.

Current demographics defines anyone as whatever they self-identify as, which is the least reliable and most corruptible form of social research.  As a result, demography is unreliable and corrupted.  But they have "suggestions".

The current accepted definition of "black" or "african-american" - the one demographers suggest to the folks they are interviewing - is anyone who has any black African lineage.  Stress: ANY.

Similarly, the current accepted definition of "hispanic" is anyone who has any "hispanic" lineage.  Stress: ANY.  And "hispanic" itself was coined in the last generation as a hodge-podge catchall, and loosely refers to anyone from [a western-hemisphere] Spanish-heritage nation [which sometimes includes Portugeuse-heritage] "regardless of race".

The current accepted definition of "white", on the other hand, is anyone who has only non-hispanic European ancestry.

With dishonest groundrules like this, "whites" are destined for extinction, if only academically.  And since these groundrules came out of academia, academic extinction may, in fact, be the motive.

The fastest-growing demographic in the US in the last two generations is not blacks, nor whites, nor hispanics, nor "asian"  immigrants [another mincing term - they are orientals]; it is mixed-race mutts.

The Republican Party will split in two. You cannot put everyone right of center into one party.

Balderdash; and sure you can - they've done it for generations.

The US - and more particularly, the ijjits who dominate and domineer the political landscape - has a very difficult problem comprehending more than two alternatives at a time.  Everyone to the right of an arbitrary "center line" will be defined as "conservative", "neo-con", "Republican", and everyone to the left of that same line will be defined as "liberal", "socialist", "Democrat".

This is the even the way it works among those who would call themselves libertarians, who are a political third-wheel on the two-wheeled American Political Bicycle.  Even they can't get out of the false-dichotomy habit; see how quickly they accused Tea Partying of being just another "neo-con" outlet.

The traditional notions of East-West, or Communism-Capitalism no longer apply.

East-West as Communism/Capitalism?

No, you're right; it doesn't.  Not exactly.  Communism - despite the nails-on-the-chalkboard of holdouts like Chavez, the Merry Castro Boys, and L'il Kim - is in its dying throes.  China will "reinvent" communism as capitalism and officiously regiment it - as they've regimented everything for millenia.

The East-West struggle is being replaced as rapidly as the Imams can arrange it by a Panislamist versus The World cage match.  The fodder for all this is, of course, the poor and destitute from muslim-dominated nations - which breed poor destitution with their sad mixture of mandatory state-religion and mandatory despotism.  These poor, destitute fodders only get encouragement by those in the West who don't seem to understand the recurrence of long-cycle historic patterns, and can't seem to be dislodged from their Wii and blackberry long enough to pay attention.

Whether it comes to the eschatalogical head the Imams desire, though, is based in large part on Iran.  Their leadership is either greatly or moderately in favor of the new East-West schism, but a majority of their people recall too fondly that despite the Shah being tough on the growing panislamist movement, he turned out to have been right about it, and they preferred their "decadent" westernisms to the islamic version of Amish-land they've been enjoying since '79.

The US is going to have to come to grips with its soft-heartedness.  The same soft-heartedness that looked at Kosovo in '99 and wept great tears of sympathy - "Oh those poor, poor Kosovs ... being so brutally slaughtered just because they started a revolution..." - and injecting ourselves into their self-made mess.

Many soft-hearted liberal dinks now look just as doe-eyed at Darfur, which is another group of revolutionaries being put down by the government they are revolting against.

Soft-heartedness in foreign affairs leads inexoribly to soft-skulledness.  Just because someone in the world is, boo friggin hoo, being put upon and asks for our help does not mean we should give it.  Life's tough, you'll never come out of it alive.  You start revolutions, expect to get shot at.

And even the "cold and heartless" "neo-cons" get soft-hearted ... and then soft-skulled.  Iraq.  Okay; they pissed us off.  That calls for an ass-kicking.  Once their ass was sufficiently kicked, what'd we do?

We stayed, because, boo friggin hoo, they don't have a government, they don't have this, they don't have that, ... and we should give it to them.

BZZZZT.   We already gave it to them.  If they want anything better, let them get it for themselves.

We've seen the mess that "dovish" wars get for us; we've seen the mess that "hawkish" wars get for us.   And just because we're soft-hearted.  It gets us more of the same: more people asking us to help them with their particular bully.

The US is going to learn - and hopefully within the decade - that the purpose of the world's most powerful military, if it is to be used benevolently, is to kick the asses of those who need it, and only when they need it, and to leave everyone else alone in the meantime.  Those who need an ass kicking are those who piss us off. 

"Benevolence" is always misunderstood under the best of circumstances.  "Benevolent" use of the US military for Kosovo - where we had no national interest - is viewed as interference and buttinskying.  "Benevolent" use of the US military in A'stan - where we DID have an interest - is understood by everyone as "well, y'know, al Qaida did piss them off...".  Even Iraq was understood as "Hussein pissed off the Americans".

And historically, that is all the justification anyone needs for wars.  What is seen as the interference and buttinskying is when we overstay.  If we're truly not attempting to build an empire with little proxy states running around bumping into furniture, then we need to kick ass and leave, not kick ass and stay, and put on bandaids, and fluff pillows, and pick up toys.  It's almost as if we're apologizing for them pissing us off.

And we need to develop somewhat thicker skin when other nations start their pissing, so that it doesn't soak in and make our hearts and skulls soft so easily.  Our hawks and doves are almost indifferentiable in how they react to the rest of the world.  But by god! to each other they find no end to the differences!

If NKorea wants to rattle its rusty saber, let them.  If Japan and SKorea don't want to put up with it, let THEM deal with it.  If Syria and Iran want to play 21st-Century "Bronze-Age Empire Rebuilder" over the remains of Iraq, let them.  Split the place in two along Sunni-Shia boundaries and let the games begin.  Administration of imperial frontiers is a headache.

Let others micromanage.  We need to stay home and make money.

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Posted By: Stephen Jaye
Date: 2010-04-16 14:22:09

Interesting scenerio to say the least.  My critique would be this...

1.  Even in a 4-party system like the one you forsee here in 2020 America, there will still be some people that straddle the line/ don't fit in to any major party.  I am thinking of people in the cenrist part of the spectrum who will be caught in the middle of 4 parties rather than 2.

2.  WIth the TEA party having some hard-core supporters from the Libertarian apparatus, and a general message of smaller Government, I don't forsee it going to the neo-cons.  Don't get me wrong, I've noticed a few more pro-war messages coming into the TEA party umbrella lately.  However, in my conversations with TEA pary organizers and supporters, it still seems as if they are going to keep it about economic issues and smaller Government.  Just a respectful disagreement.

A possible GOP schizm scenerio would be some disgusted neo-con types splitting off to form a new party on the heals of some major victories by "Ron Paul Republicans".  There are some completely committed to reforming the GOP, and many willing to listen after the '06 and '08 defeats.  They can join forces with the Lieberman Democrats and form an "America is Great and everyone else in the World wants to be just like us" party.  However, I don't really see them using the TEA pary name, mainly because the original themes of the TEA parties are issues that this particular group of people don't seem to care too much about.

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Posted By: AmericanShiite
Date: 2010-04-17 11:26:03

Here is my (still friendly) response to your comment, Stephen Jaye

"1.  Even in a 4-party system like the one you forsee here in 2020 America, there will still be some people that straddle the line/ don't fit in to any major party.  I am thinking of people in the cenrist part of the spectrum who will be caught in the middle of 4 parties rather than 2."

Not four party - three party. The center and top-left will be dominated by third parties, like left-wing holdouts when the Libertarians join the New Republicans.

"2.  WIth the TEA party having some hard-core supporters from the Libertarian apparatus, and a general message of smaller Government, I don't forsee it going to the neo-cons.  Don't get me wrong, I've noticed a few more pro-war messages coming into the TEA party umbrella lately.  However, in my conversations with TEA pary organizers and supporters, it still seems as if they are going to keep it about economic issues and smaller Government.  Just a respectful disagreement."

I agree that the Tea Party started out as Libertarian. However, most of their newer members are pro-Palin, anti-Obama nationalist Republicans who needed a banner to rally under. Have you noticed the prevelance of racial incidents? True libertarians would never support that.

"A possible GOP schizm scenerio would be some disgusted neo-con types splitting off to form a new party on the heals of some major victories by "Ron Paul Republicans".  There are some completely committed to reforming the GOP, and many willing to listen after the '06 and '08 defeats.  They can join forces with the Lieberman Democrats and form an "America is Great and everyone else in the World wants to be just like us" party.  However, I don't really see them using the TEA pary name, mainly because the original themes of the TEA parties are issues that this particular group of people don't seem to care too much about."

I agree, but I think they'll use the Tea Party name simply for brand recognition. Just like North Korea calls itself a "democratic people's republic" when it is really a monarchist authortarian empire.

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Posted By: AmericanShiite
Date: 2010-04-17 14:52:29

By the way, I'm not the only one claiming that the Tea Party has been hijacked by neocons:

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Posted By: Michael
Date: 2011-02-09 07:46:45

Shiite article....really, since it's the social issues that will really define what political spectrum the Tea Party fits into.

Ultimately though, people just want government out of their lives...at least in a negative way.


FOR YEARS! We've been plundered by politicians who only lower taxes when they realized they've got their hand caught in the cookie jar.


They are on both sides of the isle. Even libertarians will give in to special interests...because the politicians themselves are a "special interest". They have their own ambitions for their fellow man*.

I know I have some of my own plans...

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