Rand Paul maintains his lead in the GOP Senate primary despite establishment candidate Trey Grayson's increasingly negative compaign.by George Dance
(libertarian)
Sunday, March 21, 2010
In the Republican primary race for U.S. Senator from Kentucky, Rand Paul continues to confound political expectations. As Time magazine recently put it: "Paul, the Bowling Green ophthalmologist whose chief claim to fame is that his father Ron is the world's most famous libertarian, now leads a race he was never supposed to enter. And he leads it by as much as 20 points. In doing so, he is upsetting not only expectations in Kentucky but also overturning the local power structure: he has outraised Kentucky secretary of state Trey Grayson, the handpicked favorite son of Senate [minority] leader Mitch McConnell." (1)
Not merely outraised, but consistently outpolled. Paul, in his first-ever attempt at elective office, continues to maintain the double-digit lead over Grayson that he opened up at the beginning of the year. (2) A March 4 Survey USA poll found him leading Grayson 42%-27% (with 11% split among four other candidates, and 19% undecided). (3) A Research 2000 poll taken a week later found a similar 40%-28% lead for Paul. (4)
Along with these poll numbers, Paul has begun picking up some establishment GOP support of his own. Steve Forbes endorsed him in early January. (5) FreedomWorks, called by Atlantic magazine "the conservative group that has aligned itself more closely with the Tea Party movement than any other preexisting conservative organization," followed suit later in the month. (6) On Feb. 1, Paul campaign manager David Adams reported that Sarah Palin had endorsed Rand Paul's candidacy, and that her PAC had made "a generous contribution" to his campaign. (7)
Palin later told FOX News that she was for Paul "Because he's a federalist and he wants the states to have more say and as we respect the 10th Amendment in our Constitution, he wants the states to have more say in a lot of these issues." (8)
"A win by Paul ... would represent the first true electoral success of the tea party movement," Jonathan Martin wrote last week in Politico magazine. "Equally important, it would embarrass Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, whose political organization is running Grayson's campaign, thrust onto the national stage a Republican with foreign policy views out of the conservative mainstream and, strategists in both parties believe, imperil the GOP's hold on the seat now held by retiring Sen. Jim Bunning." (9)
(That last belief, though, looks refuted by the Research 2000 poll, which found Paul beating either of the top Democratic contenders, Dan Mongiardo [46%-37%] or Jack Conway [45%-39%], in a general election.) (4)
For these reasons, Martin tells us, "Senior Republicans in Kentucky and Washington D.C. are deeply concerned" about the primary. (9) Time confirms that the "campaign is being watched closely by Republicans who worry about the size and strength of the Tea Party movement." (1) One of those senior Republicans watching with interest was one Cesar Conda:
Mr. Conda has over two decades of legislative and policy experience working at the highest levels in the White House and Congress, for presidential campaigns, and for several public policy research foundations. He was recently a senior economic policy adviser to the 2008 Mitt Romney for President campaign. From 2001 to 2003, he was Assistant to the Vice President for Domestic Policy. According to columnist Robert Novak, Mr. Conda "as Vice President Dick Cheney's domestic policy chief was instrumental in devising the Bush tax cuts." (10)
According to Martin's Politico story:
Recognizing the [Paul] threat, a well-connected former aide to Vice President Dick Cheney convened a conference call last week between Grayson and a group of leading national security conservatives to sound the alarm about Paul. "On foreign policy, [global war on terror], Gitmo, Afghanistan, Rand Paul is NOT one of us," Cesar Conda wrote in an e-mail to figures such as Liz Cheney, William Kristol, Robert Kagan, Dan Senor and Marc Thiessen. With an attached memo on Paul's noninterventionist positions, Conda concluded: "It is our hope that you can help us get the word out about Rand Paul's troubling and dangerous views on foreign policy." (9)
The result? As Ron Paul recently summarized it in an urgent email to his own donor base: "The big government establishment has turned on their fundraising machine to try and defeat Rand. According to media reports, Rand's challenger has raised hundreds of thousands of dollars in the past several weeks. The sources? Disgusting! PAC's, special interests and the banking industry -- all of whom are opening up their wallets for Rand's opponent." (11)
To date, both campaigns have raised roughly the same amount -- a bit more than $2 million -- from donors across the nation. AP reports that 75% "of donations Paul received last year ... came from out of state donors, many of whom also contributed to his father's failed 2008 presidential bid" (12) -- while Politico's Ben Smith passes on the word that "Grayson has become an unlikely cause celebre for pro-Israel donors in and around New York." (13)
Politico also reports that Grayson is investing his new funds in negative TV advertising. "While most first-time congressional candidates spend early money on positive, biographical campaign spots, Grayson has gone in the other direction, launching broadsides at GOP foe Rand Paul's views on foreign policy and energy policy in three of his first four television advertisements.... Grayson, the establishment candidate, is trying to portray Paul as unacceptable to the Republican base."
Politico cited an ad that began airing Mar. 11, in which Grayson tells the camera that: "On national security, Rand Paul has strange ideas. Paul favors closing Guantanamo Bay and sending Al Qaeda terrorists back to their home countries. Even though the 9/11 attacks began there, Paul thinks Afghanistan is not a threat to our national security. I'm Trey Grayson and I approved this message, because national security is too important to get it wrong." (14)
A website also launched Mar. 11, "Rand Paul: Strange Ideas," promotes the same message. The Louisville Courier-Journal describes it as "a Grayson Web site where you can feel the terror-level alert. The background is orange, and Paul, pictured in a turtleneck in front of concentric circles, looks like a cult leader broadcasting from a spaceship. The message, of course, is not just that Paul has strange ideas, but is just plain strange." (15)
"Grayson has painted himself into a corner. He is the weaker candidate in his first primary race against a more conservative Republican. He can't demonstrate that he is the better candidate and he can't quit the race, so he has to make up silly attack ads," Adams told Politico. "It's not a winning strategy, but under the circumstances he probably doesn't think he has a choice." (14)
In reply, Adams has begun releasing the Paul campaign's own negative ads, making repeated use of a welcoming statement Grayson had recorded for President Obama's inauguration -- saying he would "look forward to doing my part as secretary of state and, as a citizen, of working with President Obama" -- to paint "Obama and Grayson" as "dangerous allies." (16)
Grayson's newest attack ad (unveiled on Friday, March 19) "says Paul thinks it's not a problem for Iran to have a nuclear bomb. The ad contains an excerpt from a speech Paul gave in 2007. Paul campaign manager David Adams said the statement was taken out of context." The Paul campaign rushed out another counter-attack accusing Grayson of "lying to save his campaign." (17)
Congressman Ron Paul describes the game of attack-ad followed by counter-attack-ad this way: "Rand's career politician opponent is lashing out -- he has turned on an attack machine of vicious distortions and outright lies. Rand is working hard to knock them back and fight for our principles.[...]
But, [Ron Paul continues,] Rand does not have enough money to stay on TV and fight off the establishment's smear tactics over the next few weeks. Unless he gets a substantial infusion of cash, he will not be able to purchase airtime from March 24 through mid April. And with all of his opponent's lies and fear mongering, he needs your help to stay on Kentucky statewide television during this critical time.
On Tuesday, March 23, the grassroots have organized a Money Bomb for Rand. If we have a successful day, Rand will be able to purchase the airtime he needs for the next few weeks and fund the last several mail pieces he will need down the stretch. You can donate directly at Rand's website, www.RandPaul2010.com. (11)
Congressman Paul reminds his supporters that, with his son's campaign, "We have a real chance to send the most principled, limited government leader to the United States Senate in a generation." He also reminds them, though, that in order to do that, "We need you more than ever. I dearly hope I can count on your support. We have a tremendous opportunity, and if we come together on March 23, I know we can win." (11)
The views expressed
in this article are those of George Dance only and
do not represent the views of Nolan Chart, LLC or its affiliates.
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