This is actually a reply to the wonderful article written by Jim Quinn titled "21st Century Breakdown" by foxpup
(libertarian)
Sunday, February 28, 2010
(Thanks Jim Quinn, for causing me to write this column. :-) )
Jim, I too have recognized a cyclical nature to history. Actually it is both cyclical and progressive. Regardless, at this point in time the cyclical side is most significant. I think you are absolutely correct. The terms are different from what I use. I used 4 periods that more or less represent generations. Here they are.
1: A period of poverty, catastrophe, & survivors. Much is torn down, and the groundwork for the future is also laid for those who survive. During this time the battle is in your face. Ideas that do not lead to survival are cast off and others that lead to survival are acquired or remembered. During this time there is shrinking wealth & growing lawfulness in the hearts of the survivors. Wealth reaches its bottom at the end of this period. (wealth is decreasing) (lawfulness is increasing) Latest cycle ended in the mid 1930s/early 1940s
2: A period of growth, building, & benefits of lawfulness. The strengths that the survivors of the 1st period posses are now met with less resistance. They can now do more than just survive. They start building and even institutionalize some of the virtue that got them through the tough times. This period still starts off pretty tough but ends more comfortable. Lawfulness is growing during this period and peaks out at the end. (wealth is increasing) (lawfulness is increasing) Latest cycle ended in the late ~1950s/early 1960s
3: A period of growth, with erosion of lawfulness due to wealth. During this time things are still growing, construction of infrastructure marches on, but greed starts to take over. It becomes more productive to try to steal wealth from others than to build wealth yourself. Growth is happening as a result of established lawfulness, but the lawfulness is waning. Wealth peaks out at the end of this period. (wealth is increasing) (lawfulness is decreasing) Latest cycle ended in the 1980s
4: There is economic shrinkage because few are willing to invest because they don't believe the dividends will come. The environment is filled with "sharks" trying to consume any meat they can get. Still it seems to be the only game until the end of this period where there just isn't much meat to grab. The more trusting lawful are consumed by the sharks. At the end this period lawfulness meets its minimum. (wealth decreasing) (lawfulness decreasing) Latest cycle ended in 2003 give or take a few years. It is actually hard to nail this date down.
Actually these 4 phases are a natural result of a sinusoidal pattern coming from wealth and lawfulness. Actually one is the derivative of the other. High wealth decreases lawfulness. Low lawfulness decreases wealth. Low wealth increases lawfulness (for the survivors). High lawfulness increases wealth. I'm sure that many would wonder just what "Lawfulness" mean but anyone who has read the Bible in any serious way would understand.
There is also another factor here and that is modern technology. I classify technology as an extension of life itself. (similar to very primitive plant life) The industrial revolution got it started. Unlike previous technology, modern technology closes the loop of production. The classical life cycle talked about is the coal, railroad, steel industry. Machinery like railroads would haul in coal to steel plants that would make more steel for the machinery. The whole system, (powered by coal) grew exponentially much as life does. Now days as energy shifts from coal, natural gas, petroleum we find ourselves dealing with other sources such nuclear, solar, water, wind, & anything else we can come up with. I argue that these newer sources of energy are more locally produced and harder for tyrants to control. This is a good thing. There may be less of it, but it is more in the hands of the people. Some day with a lot of work, it may even be more abundant.
Beyond energy, there is the machinery itself. The economy may be mainly global with machine parts made all over the globe, but I see a potential of a shift towards the local and it starts with devices like the personal computer, printer, open source software and patents, recycling, & 3-d printers. It is conceivable that technologically savvy people can become very self sufficient with machines that they own making most of what they need. The Amish have solved this problem by using preindustrial technology. I argue that a similar situation can also be established with micro-industry. There would still be lots of producing and consuming going on, (recycling too) but it would be local. Personally I think that is the future of our economy. This represents a progressive perspective. I'm not sure if this is distant or near future,but think of the freedom and diversity!!
There is one thing I'm sure of, it **WILL** be an interesting next couple decades. I do think it is going to be tough but also exciting for the ambitious dreamer. Many things may be falling apart around us but all that desolation simply provides a place to build. AND BUILD WE SHALL!!
Did you like this article? If you did, Thumb It! 1
thumb so far
The views expressed
in this article are those of foxpup only and
do not represent the views of Nolan Chart, LLC or its affiliates.
foxpup is solely responsible for the contents
of this article and is not an employee or otherwise affiliated
with Nolan Chart, LLC in his/her role as a columnist.
Want to comment on
this article? Leave your comment
here. Your email address is required to track your
comment. However, we will neither publish your email
address nor distribute it to other organizations or
persons. The only reason we might use it would be if
we needed to contact you regarding your comment. All
comments are subject to our
terms of use policy.
