An asteroid may be closer than you think. by Kevin Roeten
(conservative)
Sunday, February 14, 2010
The writer had been under the perception an asteroid collision with the earth was an incredibly remote occurrence. That it was used as a 'scare tactic'. But after thorough examination of the subject, one should be very concerned about a possible collision. There are numerous reasons, but three major ones:
1) NEO Discovery Statistics shows many near earth objects that can easily collide with earth during orbit. Lindsey Johnson, (Near-Earth Project Manager/ NASA) said objects ranging from 460 to 3,280 feet can decimate an entire region of earth. In 8/09 only 6,000 of the approximated 20,000 objects which have this capacity for this destruction have been spotted because of a lack of funding by the federal government. Read Spaceflight Now | Breaking News | More funding needed to meet ...asteroid detection mandate.
Because of the lack of funding, NASA has been able to identify only 1/3 of the asteroids that could be threats to earth.
Very few remember the 6-meter Small Asteroid 2009 VA Whizzes By The Earth on 11/6/2009. It flew by just 14,000 km above the planet’s surface, and was well inside the "Clarke Belt" of geosynchronous satellites. This flyby of asteroid 2009VA was the third closest on record. Flybys we know about, at least.
But the fact that there was so little warning is troubling. 2009VA was discovered just 15 hours before closest approach by astronomers working at the Catalina Sky SurveyCatalina Sky Surveys (CSS). Also on 3/2/09, 114ft Asteroid 2009 DD45 'nearly hits' Earth by whizzing 45,000 miles above the Earth's surface. NASA has a complete list of the known asteroids scheduled for close flybys.
A similar sized object slammed into Tunguska, Siberia in 1908. The impact created a blast so powerful it leveled 1,200 square miles of forest. Even though we think we have identified some [link edited for length](diameters greater than 200 km), it is believed we are only aware of a small fraction of kilometer-sized asteroids that can impact earth.
2) Future earth collisions with known and unknown asteroids will happen. Asteroid 2004MN4 (Apophis) has the potential in 2036. Boris Shustov (Director, Institute of Astronomy in Russia) explains about this asteroid, "The probability of a collision with the Earth was very high... The collision of such a large body with our planet will cause great damage." If impact occurs, it will be with a force of 2 million atomic bombs.
On July 9, 2002, the Lincoln Near-Earth Asteroid Research (LINEAR) detected a 1.2-mile-wide asteroid. Early calculations indicate there is a small chance that this asteroid may collide with Earth in 2060. While they are monitoring this new threat, the possible impact of asteroid 2002NT7 can be found on the Torino Impact Scale. On 3/16/2880, Jon Giorgini (NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory) calculated that there is a possibility of a 1950DA collision. Other asteroid locators include NEAR-EARTH ASTEROID TRACKING(NEAT),[link edited for length], and LONEOS Description(Lowell Observatory NEO Survey).
3) [link edited for length] (NASA), has spotted its first never-before-seen "near-earth" asteroid. This is the first of hundreds it is expected to find during its mission to map the whole sky in infrared light. In other words, there at least hundreds of near earth asteroids that are so dark they can't be visibly seen by a telescope in normal light. Only an infrared sensor can detect an object that is totally black to the eye, visible only a few days before a collision.
The unnerving part of these five asteroid locators, is NASA only has detected what they believe to be only 1/3 of the potentially deadly asteroids that threaten the earth as originally stated. Now, WISE will probably find many more that we haven't seen. That's find, not stop.
Number of Asteroids that are known, are in the hundreds of thousands. Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than 100m, and come closer to the earth than 0.05 AU (Astronomical Units). But PHAs can have their orbits altered slightly by close passing planets.
One can see the graph of near-earth asteroid discoveries each year is rising--and cumulative. In 2020, if the discovery rate stays linear, approximately 12,000 dangerous PHAs orbiting the sun will be known. That doesn't count all those unseen asteroids WISE will also locate.
It's very likely earth could see another asteroid like 2009VA which gave a whopping 15 hours before buzzing earth. For even a medium-sized asteroid that collides, things like health care, taxes, and regulations would be moot. For an [link edited for length] with a large asteroid 10,000 MT or greater, you can bend over and kiss your butt goodbye.
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This sounds like an issue supported by conservatives that could be the equivalent to the global warming issue of the democrats.
I really support NASA a lot and was sanguine upon hearing the news of Obama not renewing their trips to the moon, but i dont think that using fear tactics and threats of asteroid impacts to convince more government spending in the space program is going to work.
The obvious reason that NASA recorded more near Earth objects now than 20 yearsago is technology. asteroids are dark and small and nearly impossible to detect, like extrasolar planets. back then, NASA failed to locate even 1 extrasolar planet, while now it has discovered thousands of them. asteroids are bound to follow the same trend. only back then hundreds of asteroids would be known and now, millions could be known.
Sorry, no equivalency here. Anthropogenic global warming never happened. Earth and every other planet has been pelted by asteroids for as long as we know.
Asteroids are the reason why the dinosaurs are gone, and why there is direct evidence of impacts throughout history.
The revelation that there are more nearearth asteroids than we realize has nothing to do with spending. The fact that you're just realizing the traffic we have around the earth is the sad part.
Technology over the next few years will tell us many things we don't want to know. What does fear and scare tactics have anything to do with harsh realities. Are you just realizing some now?
I agree with all of your facts. Yes, we are amongst thousands of asteroids that could possibly destroy life on Earth. But its not something thats just happened recently as the chart suggests. We're in the exact same situation we have been for the last 4 billion years.
i brought up fear tactics because it sounds like your slightly exagerrating our situation. yes we are naked out there and could be pelted by a mammoth asteroid in six months to end all of humanity, but the chances of that are EXTERMELY thin. Its only happened like 3 times since life began 2 billion years ago. its just as likely to happen now as in 1950, or at the height of the Roman empire, or at the retreat of the ice age.
I only compared it to global warming because of its eerie similarity and political twist on things. (i assumed there was a political twist because this is a political website.)
democrats invented global warming because they want us to stop being so interested in the middle east, (so we arent as dependant on foreign oil), which most would agree would be great. this convinced the entire world that oil is bad based on an ounce of truth and 90% crap.
(what they tell us) Carbon dioxide will cause global warming if current trends are continued.. (what they DONT tell us) ...for thousands of years.
now republicans want to make up "imminent asteroid catastrophe threat" because they want us to invest more in NASA and missile defense systems (for obvious beneficial reasons). to convince the world that we need to pour tons of money into NASA/defense on an ounce of fact and 90% crap.
(what they tell us) We can easily be obliterated by a near earth object to end all of mankind without a missile defense system (what they dont tell us) they chances of being hit by a gigantic one in a span of a million years is still less than 1%.
I want a stronger defense system and space program but trying to convince the population of imminent danger just instills fear in the hearts of the ignorant.
The chart does not suggest that we are in an imminent hazard because of asteroids. It DOES suggest that we may be in more imminent danger than we thought we were.
The chances are NOT extremely thin. We get pelted by asteroids and fragments every day. Most burn up in the atmosphere. If it's large it could very easily have hit in an unpopulated region. Or it's going to hit.
How easily you overlook recent hits like the asteroid that hit in the Gulf of Mexico, Meteor Crater in Arizona, Chicxulub in the Yucatan Peninsula, Aourounga in Chad, Roter Kamm in Southwest Africa, Botsumtwi in Ghana, and Goat Paddock Crater in Kimberley Australia. And that's just a few impact sites around the world! Check out Earth Impact Database.
The invention of global warming had little to do with dependence of foreign oil. Didn't you read the past column of mine on oil? CO2 will NOT cause AGW for thousands of years! It is necessary for life on earth.
Rogue asteroids are not Republican. Any additional monies for NASA or Missile Defense is much more wisely spent than monies on National Healthcare, Global Warming, stimulus incentives, the Energy Department, you name it...
Obviously, the fallacy of getting hit by a large rogue asteroid 'once in a million years' is a MAJOR miscalculation. It happens every day--that's reality. We don't want to instill fear. We want programs like NASA to be prepared to go out into space, and slightly alter the orbit of an asteroid with an imminent impact date.
There is no doubt that earth has been hit by asteroids in the past and there is no doubt they can cause incredible destruction. There is a high probability it will be hit again in the future by a large asteroid. The probability of that happening tomorrow or in the near future is low. But the probability of it happening eventually is high and the consequences of that impact would be disasterous. So logic would suggest that we should spend some money on technologies to destroy or deflect asteroids. But we should not go cuckoo and spend hundreds of billions as was done with AGW. Remember we're already $12 trillion in debt with $40 trillion in unfunded future liabilities and God only knows how much the Fed has handed out to the bankers.
Thank you for that confirmation of fact. But you do not KNOW the probability of an impact happening tomorrow or in the near future is low.
The earth takes on 10,000 tons of space debris each year. Even one known asteroid, 2004MN4, also known as Apophis, makes very close passes to the earth in the years 2029, 2034, 2035, 2036, 2037, and 2069. The closest or most likely impact scenario will be in 2036.
And we know WISE has found only a few of the PHAs of the hundreds that it will with its infrared sensors. How many more are there orbiting close to earth that we know nothing about?
You should know that a spaceflight by NASA to an asteroid would not cost hundreds of billions as done with AGW. Therefore any expenditure would not be going 'cuckoo' as we have with 2156 other useless programs.
It seems our debt load is completely out of whack with necessary priorities.
Even if one discounts everything above, we're long "overdue"...
1/ How do they know they have only found 1/3 of the existing NEO's if they haven't found the rest of them yet?
2/ Does the increase in the number of known NEO's also increase (or decrease) the likelihood that an impact will take place?
3/ If it was determined that an NEO was likely to impact, what predetermined course of action would be taken, and how would this course of action help to ensure my personal survival (since it's my money, shouldn't I be the beneficiary?)?
4/ At what point do we say 'enough' and cut funding for these scientific boondoggles?
5/ Why do 'Conservatives' see government as the answer to all of our ills (or even perceived ills)?
I'll try to answer your questions. Maybe next time you ought to leave your biases home.
1) There are many ways of knowing how many asteroid impacts you should be getting. How many asteroid impacts are on the other planets around the solar system. How many impact sites already exist on earth. What % of the asteroid will combust when entering an atmosphere. Determination of a particular orbital path of an asteroid. Especially those with very elongated, or obtuse ones. Many have not yet returned in our lifetime. There's quite a few more if you're interested.
2) The increase in number of known NEOs also allows better calculations of orbital paths and trajectories. One could also look at past collisions on earth, and also earth's and other planets' gravitational effect on the orbital path. Of course, if the earth is due for an impact, frequency could have nothing to do with it.
3) If NASA is given enough time, and years is what we're talking about, then any number of things can be done to affect orbital path. That includes 'putting ' a bright coloring on the surface, to a nuclear blast.
4) If we don't know the orbital path of every NEA to earth, then we should never cut the funding. Especially since they're so small compared to all our other 'boondoggle' expenditures. But thanks to Obama, we already have cut the funding for finding NEOs.
5) Conservatives don't see 'government' as the answer to ANY of our ills, except for a very few. That's what Democrats see--governmental assistance or takeover of everything. Please don't tell me you're of the latter persuation...
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