Singer: Yes, global mean temperatures have been increasing since 1978, or since 1910, or since 1600, or since the last ice age ended, around 8,000 BC. Global climate has always changed and we should be grateful that we're in one of those warming periods, which have always been beneficial to humans.
Scientists have been able to identify some of the temperature cycles in nature, but historic data is sparse and inconsistent, depending on conflicting proxies for temperature measurements. Our best global temperature measures are from satellites and weather balloons, covering only the last few decades.
If we use the standard definition of climate as 30-year norms, we don't have accurate data for even one cycle. Our best measures indicate that global temperatures have been stable, or slightly declining, over the past decade.
Westmiller: Is recent global warming exceptional?
Singer: Not in terms of decadal, much less millennial, trends. Several natural cycles, like El Nio, solar intensity, and ocean currents have probably influenced the minor warming trends of the last three decades. In the context of ice ages, the globe is approaching another ice age, just as it has been doing every100,000 years or so.
Ice core sampling doesn't produce high-resolution data, like modern satellites do, so the short-term variations can't be compared. During the past decade, annual averages have fallen and trends have stabilized.
Some temperature charts give the impression of exceptional warming because they begin at the trough of prior cool periods, such as the Little Ice Age and Maunder Minimum. Most charts start at 1890, when we first started to estimate global temperatures from direct instrumentation. There's nothing exceptional about that date in terms of industrialization or the intensive use of fossil fuels, which accelerated several decades later.
Westmiller: But, the North Pole is melting, polar bears are dying, and sea levels are rising. Right?
Singer: Let's take those one at a time. When global temperatures are increasing, the amount of sea ice decreases. Arctic ice cover has been decreasing. Some of our media expresses surprise that some northern shipping lanes are nearly ice free. They shouldn't be shocked. Just a hundred years ago, Roald Amundsen navigated the Northwest Passage, above Canada, in a wooden boat, when no icebreakers existed. Baron Adolf Nordenskild sailed through the Northeast Passage, above Russia, in 1878. It's really nothing new.
Remember that Arctic ice cover is only ten percent of the global area, with the remainder in Antarctica. We've been able to accurately measure total global ice cover by satellite since 1979 and the trend line is nearly flat, with some decreases in the Northern Hemisphere and some increases in the Southern.
I'm no expert on polar bears, but there was over-hunting in the 1970s that reduced the population. Since restrictions were imposed, almost all of those populations have recovered. The bottom line is that polar bears don't need ice to survive; they need open water, where they catch and eat seals.
Sea levels. It is absolutely true that sea levels are rising. It's also absolutely true that they've been rising at about the same rate for the past 3000 years; roughly 7 inches per century..
Let me add another: retreating glaciers. There are many anecdotal stories about mountain glaciers fading away in temperate climes. Mount Kilimanjaro is one. Scientists have studied the causes and discovered that global warming is not the culprit. Changing humidity, prevailing winds, and deforestation explain almost all of the retreat.
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in this article are those of William Westmiller only and
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Very good interview with S. Fred Singer. I followed your link to read parts 2 and 3 of your interview. He covers all the major points of contention. Global warming alarmists paint Singer as the king of global warming deniers, which is absurd since he has never denied the existence of a long-term warming trend. However, he has argued that (1) it is natural and inevitable and (2) there is nothing we can do to stop it. It is the second point that makes him a thorn in the side of those who are using "global warming" as an excuse to remake the world economic order to their own liking.
I hope you publish parts 2 and 3 of your interview here, too.
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