Topic: Ron Paul
Ron Paul's support in Iowa: Why to take the Button Poll seriously Why the Iowa Button Poll is the closest estimate we've got for Ron Paul's actual Iowa support, and what it means.by jaded
(libertarian)
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
There has been a lot of talk about polls in the Ron Paul crowd. Every Paulite knows that Paul's numbers in the media polls are not to be trusted, because of the pecuiliar demographic he appeals to. Instead the we typically look to his stunning results in the straw polls. And for good measure we look at his fund raising and local visibility (i.e., the proliferation of signs and bumperstickers and even a couple of blimps) .
Now, I buy the whole bit about media polls being off: It is true that many Paul supporters are not going to be found on the typical poll's call list. At the same time the straw polls, fundraising, and other such measures of support do not really convince me. Everyone knows Ron Paul's supporters are rabid for the cause and as a whole very active. This means that in voluntary walk-in polls, like straw polls, it is easy for Paul supporters to organize and show up in disproportionate numbers, and thus the poll is not a random and representative sample of the voting population. Thus, while a small percentage of other candidate's supporters both know of and bother to show up at these polls, a large percentage of Paul's supporters do. For this reason I suspect that the samples are skewed in the straw polls.
At the end of the day, an apathetic vote counts for just as much as fervent one. I don't buy the bit about other candidates' supporters not caring enough to show up: There are alot of Republicans who, come the general election, don't what to havet to vote for Giuliani to keep Clinton out of the White House. I suspect we will see a relatively strong turn out in the primaries.
I have been wondering for a while how we could try to estimate real numbers. That is, how to tell how deep Paul's support is and whether, for example, these straw polls show a 50% turn out of Paul supporters and a 1% turn out for Huckabee, how to tell whether the Ron Paul movement has already flexed all its numerical muscle or whether it has silent legions of voters waiting in the wings.
Going through Google News, I ran across the Iowa Button Poll. Unscientific yes. But arguably, all the other polls have scientific flaws as well, so we might as well look at it. It is a walk-in, voluntary poll, just like the straw polls, so it could be open to the same skewing effect of Ron Paul supporters organizing and showing up in disproportionate numbers. But I don't think this happened because (A) a little time on Google hasn't yet turned up, at least that I have found, any appeal to Iowa Paulites to stock up on the buttons and (B) looking at its results it doesn't show the kind of Ron Paul placement that I suspect he would have had had the Paulites consciously organized. I mean, it's a button poll, not even Paulites think it's worth taking seriously. And that is precisely why we can take it seriously. Thus I suspect that the Button Poll, unscientific as it is, probably deserves at least as much attention as either the MSM's or the straw polls.
So what did the poll say? Well if you haven't already read, it places Paul in third place with 17%. This behind Huckabee (at 43%) and Romney (at 20%) but also well ahead of the rest of the pack (including McCain) who all pull 8% a piece.
Hmm. Not as well as he is doing on the AOL straw poll (where he, at last check, held 31%, taking all but four states). BUT it is what his more sober supporters had been hoping for. I don't think anyone really thinks Paul will take Iowa. Rather we're all hoping he'll take a respectable third place that will prove to New Hampshire that he is an electable candidate.
And that is exactly what he is getting in Iowa.
Well, at least if we take the Button Poll seriously.
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Good article. But I do find it funny that you implied that Paul supporters are disproportionately represented at the straw polls because more of us show up than the other guys....so now we're "spamming" the straw polls? Could it be that more of us show up because the real front runner is Ron Paul, and not the MSM chosen ones?
If people truly supported Ghouliani, Huck, or the Plasitc Man Romney, I think they'd show up for rallies, straw polls, and online polls in numbers. I beleive that if these empty suits had any real support, outside thier elitist circles and the MSM, then those supporters would get online and vote as well. Lots of people use the internet, not just Ron Paul supporters. Even NeoCons, and bleeding heart liberals use the internet.
Where are the "front-runners' supporters? Obama had to enlist Ophra just to pack a theatre - and they came to see HER, not Obama...
Where are the Hillary stickers and signs? Where are the Ghouliani banners? Where are Huckabee's $6 Million money bombs? We see Ron Paul so much on the internet, we see his signs and banners all over town, and his rallies pack them in because he IS the true front runner.
I think you are missing the point here... Ron Paul supporters will actually VOTE. That is what counts. While many so called polls ID likely voters, the vast amount of stastics show that many never show up to vote.
Look at the Rassmussen daily tracking polls which don't include Paul... Add up the numbers. They total 76% leaving 24% for Paul and Hunter. Also, notice that the % for each candidate on the AOL poll are within the margin of error for the Rassmussen poll. In other word, Ron Paul is the front-runner and the Pollsters are hidding it.
What is difference between a straw poll and a caucus? Why would Rudy be better than Ron to beat Hillary? I do not think Rudy will steal any anti war votes from Hillary or will be the best to debate health care.
It is time for Ron to flex on the Repubicans! Votes from third parties like Libertarians and Constitution would sure help in a close race against Clinton.. so is it better to just vote for Ron in as the Republican (who has already been endorsed by these 3rd party groups) and get those 3rd party votes for the Republican win along with the Reagan Democrats, or vote for a warmonger like Rudy or Huck, Then they force Ron run as a 3rd party and destroy any chance of Republican victory? Â
Wow. I seem to have hit a button.
Paul Green: I don't know how we define "spamming" polls. I'm not saying Ron Paul supporters broke any rules, just that they are more likely to go out of their way to vote in a voluntary poll than other candidates' supporters would be, effectivly skewing the sample.
Jim, "I think you are missing the point here... Ron Paul supporters will actually VOTE," and libertynow, "What is difference between a straw poll and a caucus?" The difference between a caucus and a straw poll in that most voters don't care about straw polls, and thus don't show up; The caucus is what makes a difference and they know it.
Again, I suspect that there is enought emotion in this primary to ensure a pretty strong turn out in the primaries. The point I made about not wanting to vote for Giuliani (I think libertynow entirely misread that part) was that the Huckabee and Romney type are going to show up to keep Rudy from getting the nomination. If the recognized front runners were all various flavours of plain vanilla, perhaps people wouldn't care enought to come out, but there is a pretty big perceived diversity in the candidates, and that diversity will guarantee a moderately strong turn out.
As to Randy and his comment about the Rasmussen poll: I did look and I don't believe you. The Rasmussen poll shows Paul has 6%, I don't know why they don't list it in the full print out. And anyway, even it Paul weren't part of the poll, the AOL poll is subject to the same sample skewing as the other voluntary polls: I found out about the AOL poll from Ron Paul sites urging people to go to it and vote for him. Moreover, the Rasmussen poll has a 4% margin. Even if all 24% went to Paul, with no undecideds and no Hunter, and the full benefit of sampling error going to Paul it still doesn't come to the 31% AOL shows (although it does get close). Of course the Rasmussen poll is of likely republican primary voters, so one would expect Paul to be coming in in the single digits.
Jim, "We simply need to turn enthusiasm into VOTES!" I agree completely. We all need to make sure that for every outspoken, money-giving, strawpoll-taking Ron Paul supporter there are a half dozen voters who are going to show up and vote for Ron Paul.
Wow. I seem to have hit a button.
Paul Green: I don't know how we define "spamming" polls. I'm not saying Ron Paul supporters broke any rules, just that they are more likely to go out of their way to vote in a voluntary poll than other candidates' supporters would be, effectivly skewing the sample.
Jim, "I think you are missing the point here... Ron Paul supporters will actually VOTE," and libertynow, "What is difference between a straw poll and a caucus?" The difference between a caucus and a straw poll in that most voters don't care about straw polls, and thus don't show up; The caucus is what makes a difference and they know it.
Again, I suspect that there is enought emotion in this primary to ensure a pretty strong turn out in the primaries. The point I made about not wanting to vote for Giuliani (I think libertynow entirely misread that part) was that the Huckabee and Romney type are going to show up to keep Rudy from getting the nomination. If the recognized front runners were all various flavours of plain vanilla, perhaps people wouldn't care enought to come out, but there is a pretty big perceived diversity in the candidates, and that diversity will guarantee a moderately strong turn out.
As to Randy and his comment about the Rasmussen poll: I did look and I don't believe you. The Rasmussen poll shows Paul has 6%, I don't know why they don't list it in the full print out. And anyway, even it Paul weren't part of the poll, the AOL poll is subject to the same sample skewing as the other voluntary polls: I found out about the AOL poll from Ron Paul sites urging people to go to it and vote for him. Moreover, the Rasmussen poll has a 4% margin. Even if all 24% went to Paul, with no undecideds and no Hunter, and the full benefit of sampling error going to Paul it still doesn't come to the 31% AOL shows (although it does get close). Of course the Rasmussen poll is of likely republican primary voters, so one would expect Paul to be coming in in the single digits.
Jim, "We simply need to turn enthusiasm into VOTES!" I agree completely. We all need to make sure that for every outspoken, money-giving, strawpoll-taking Ron Paul supporter there are a half dozen voters who are going to show up and vote for Ron Paul.
Wouldn't it be nice if a few meetup groups around the country took polls asking who would vote and how. They could also hand out literature or talk to undecideds.
Disproportionate, not a true random sample. Can we help it if we love this Country more than life itself. That we know who and how man and for how long good men and women died, were murdered, tortured and whatnot to start and maintain this great land. We do We are the supporters of truth, God given liberty, Freedom, and democracy just to name a few.
We are the Army of freedom, we will fight we will vote and we will win. Why? I just told you why We are Americans and we are friggin sick of the lies and the theft of our Constitution by those lying rat bastards in DC who promised ot uphold and protect to Constitution from all threats foreign and domestic.
I am a RP supporter, an American my family faught in all the wars since Saratoga upto and including Iraq. As they. WE LOVE THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. Just like our friends, neibors, coworkers, and stranger on the street.
I hope this gets to the paper before tuesday!
FOR YOU ,PLEASE!
To all concerned Americans,
I am asking you to please go to www.RonPaul2008.com or just www.google.com and type in “Ron Paul”.
You have more than two choices for president.We do not have to settle for what the government run media tells us we have to vote for.
Please ,you owe it to yourselves to get all the information on who he is before election day. Time is running out and America can not afford another four years of poor management. Ron Paul in my mind is the only hope we have for saving America.
We owe it to our selves to listen to what this intellegant, sincere man has to say.
You can also see videos of him speaking on www.YouTube.com .His financial advisor is Peter Schiff, another extremely smart man who knows his stuff on the economy.
We need to stand up for ourselves and stop letting the media tell us who is going to win or who we have to vote for . I do not know about you but I am tired of all the bickering and waste of time between some of the other candidates. Dr. Ron Paul makes no time for this. I am not telling you who you should vote for I am just saying you need to be aware of all the candidates not just the ones they want us to hear about. Tell your in and out of state friends and relatives to check it out also.
If you do not have a computer you can go to a library or some one you know who does.
Make the informed choice on who you want for president ,don’t just pick one because you think you have no other choice.
He speaks the truth, a straight talking politician for once, hard to fathem I know. Join with me and countless others who enjoy listening to him speak.
It’s not too late!
Thank You for your time.
WWW.RONPAUL2008.COM
Sincerely,
Cindy Fuson
129 Conrad - Dupuyer Road
Conrad, Montana 59425
1-406-271-3837
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