Topic: Presidential Campaign 2008
Ron Paul Real Poll Showing Stunning Victory In Sight Although classified as a “straw poll” as opposed to a “scientific poll” you should be aware of what the terms actually mean. They are “opinion polls” and are only as reliable as the organization taking the poll.by Jim ODonnell
(Libertarian)
Tuesday, December 25, 2007
Review this image first and then I will provide links to information about polling and additional comments regarding this poll.
With this information in mind, it is my thinking that today most polls are taken not to provide information about opinion but to influence public opinion. Polls can be anything that the poll taker wants them to be. Too many of them are now designed to achieve a desired result and are commonly called "push polls."
Now to the current result of the straw poll which is represented by the image above. First a few facts about this poll:
(a) an individual [more accurately a single computer] can vote only once so that it is not possible to "stack" the results with multiple votes.
(b) the poll asks you for the state in which you live [in my case it somehow knew beforehand that I live in Alabama]
(c) it is an ongoing poll from December 21 to January 4 [the figures and percentages that I refer to below were taken at about 2:00 AM EST on December 25, 2007].
(d) the poll has a very large voting sample and as of the above time was in excess of 172,000 votes.
(e) most "scientific polls" use less than 2,000 different opinions and are generally taken using land line telephone calls where an individual is "questioned" by a taker about the answers to the poll.
You can review the current results and vote yourself here: Straw Poll: Dec. 21 - Jan. 4 - Political Machine . You can review the results by state by moving your cursor over a particular state and clicking on that state or by selecting the state name via a dropdown which is also provided. It also has the results for Democrat candidates which you can also elect to view.
RESULTS AS OF DEC 25, 2007 2:00 AM EST
Ron Paul is leading in the poll in 46 of the 50 United States.
The leaders in the other states are:
(a) MA – Romney 29% Paul 25%
(b) UT – Romney 49% Paul 25%
(c) NY - Giuliani 36% Paul 25%
(d) NJ - Giuliani 35% Paul 30%.
These last states show the leading two candidates in that state.
I published an article which was part "tongue in cheek" and part educated guess on Nolan Chart here: Ron Paul Headlines From The Future . Well to my great surprise my "predictions" were far too conservative if the result of this straw poll turns out to be accurate. Here are some of the of the results which will soon occur if these state totals turn into real caucus or primary election results:
(a) Iowa Caucuses – January 3 – Paul 41% Huckabee 18%
(b) New Hampshire Primary – January 8 – Paul 41% McCain 23%
(c) Michigan Primary - January 15 – Paul 36% Romney 23%
(d) South Carolina Primary – January 19 – Paul 25% Huckabee 23%
Do I really have to make any more comments? What do you think will happen if these are the actual results? Who will be there to console the media and pundits if these are the results? Will the media then continue to pretend that Ron Paul doesn’t exist? What will these figures be after he begins to get actual coverage in the media?
We all had better start practicing saying MR PRESIDENT instead of Ron Paul.
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2007 Jim ODonnell, all rights reserved.
Published: Tuesday, December 25, 2007
Last modified: Tuesday, December 25, 2007
The views expressed in this
article are those of Jim ODonnell only and do not represent
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Hey, let me throw in a wedge issue, as wel... they will be enacting a global biodata program in which every person's fingerprints, iris information, and D.N.A. will be monitored across the world permanently. Look up "biodata" on a news search, or on Drudge's website. Not lying.
The main thing that continues to concern me is the likelyhood of stolen elections. I raised the issue in "How The US Became A Third-World Country (Nolan Chart article #606) and got almost no response. You'd think Ron Paul supporters would care about something like that?
Nevertheless, it is very encouraging to see such strength in numbers, thanks a lot for the heads up! :)
While I voted for Ron Paul, you can vote more than one time on a PC. All you have to do is clear your browser's cookies and you can revote.
I voted one time, but it is not fool proof. I do not think many folks are voting multiple times, but they can do it for any candidate, so I think the trend is right, but the numbers may be off.
Creator, of course they will either try to steal the election, or indeed they WILL steal the election. That will cancel RP out of the Ron Paul Revolution, leaving us only the REVOLUTION part.
If these results hold true, and how great that would be, you will see Sean Hannity actively campaigning for Hilary ! Rush will have a heart attack and the entire Bush and Clinton clans will move to south Africa. Time might stop right after all matter implodes.
"With this information in mind, it is my thinking that today most polls are taken not to provide information about opinion but to influence public opinion."
Mr. O'Donnell, Carroll Quigley, one of Bill Clinton's mentors, wrote in his 1966 book TRAGEDY and HOPE that public opinion polls were designed to shape public opinion, not measure it. They have been that way for over 40 years - if not from their inception.
Posted By: Scott from Oregon
Date: 2007-12-25 22:15:13
Not ot piss on a burning wood chip in a gutter, but, everyone knows Ron Paul rules the ether world. If he does well online, it is explanable. The question is, (and the problem as well) is whether those who work and raise families and are too busy for silly internet chatter and poles are onboard with the Ron Paul solution or not.
Optimism is nice. Silliness just leads one to drink kool-aid when one should be drinking something a bit stiffer...
"............The question is, (and the problem as well) is whether those who work and raise families and are too busy for silly internet chatter and poles are onboard with the Ron Paul solution or not........"
Those very same people are unlikely to vote at all. Furthermore if they do vote they usually make a decision in the few days leading up to the election. Ron Paul has a better chance then most folks think. I also resent your comment calling internet chatter "silly". That is a regurgitation of main stream media propoganda directed at the one avenue of expression and opinion they cannot fully control or influence. The people have a voice again.
BTW, I tried to vote for Ron Paul in the aol poll. Interestingly enough after I voted it recorded me as voting for "undefined". So add one vote and I'm sure a number of others to the Ron Paul list... ;)
Jim, of course tracking a person's vote using cookies is weak, and is stupid. So stupid I have a hard time believing that AOL is doing it. They are almost certainly tracking by IP address, which means that in order to hack the vote, you either need internal access to their server hosting the vote, or you need to manipulate raw packets (which is possible but VERY difficult). The poll is therefore likely to be reasonably hack-proof.
You can verify this by several methods. Delete the cookie and see if you can vote again. If you are behind a NAT router with multiple computers, try voting on each computer.
Scott: "Delete the cookie and see if you can vote again."
Although I am sorta savy about computers I did not know about deleting coookies to vote again. I do not know how to do this.
A guy on the Daily Paul mentioned this and said the he was able to delete the cookies and vote again, so I guess it is possible.
My guess is that less than 2% of people with computers know how to do this so it doesn't mean very much and would be time consuming. Don't think this has any influence on the results.
The thing that is beginning to concern me more and more as Ron Paul's message begins to resonate, and as his polling numbers begin to rise, is what are the Neo-Cons and other elite going to do to sabotage his campaign?
I have read articles speculating about the possibility of assassination plots against Dr. Paul, because if the American people support his platform to the degree it seems apparent that they are, the Neo-Cons' goals of North American Union, ameros, One-World Government, etc. are going to be either destroyed or seriously compromised. I doubt the Neo-Cons and other world power elite are going to stand by idly as this occurs.
Will it be possible for Americans to have a fair election if Ron Paul becomes the obvious favorite?
The aforementioned poll does use a cookie and not IP address to determine if you've voted. I cleared them and was able to vote again. With this in mind, all it would take to skew these results is a handful of people from the more insane side of Paul's support group sitting at their computer for a day voting over and over...
> Although classified as a “straw poll” as opposed to a > “scientific poll” you should be aware of what the terms actually mean.
A scientific poll is one in which the pollster tries to avoid selection bias (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selection_bias) by actively contacting their subjects rather than passively waiting for subjects to do their survey.
Yes, the scientific surveys probably give lower results for Ron Paul because many of his supporters are (1) voting for the first time or (2) have cell phones instead of landlines. However, ceteris paribus, scientific polls are more accurate than straw polls.
AOL has touted this poll as tamper proof and indeed I tried to do the dirty deed of voting twice with every trick in the Microsoft book however, I had no luck. I cleared cookies, even changed to another browser with no luck.
I personally feel it is tamper proof unless you are a jam-up hacker.
I'm not really computer-saavy, but here's what I know. I have four registered voters in my house. I was able to vote on the AOL poll, but afterwards if I tried to pull up the poll again I would get "You voted for Paul". However, when another member of my family logged in to "his side" of the same computer, he was able to cast his vote as well. My mother used her computer (which is tied to the same network) and was able to vote. And I'm pretty sure my husband has cast his vote on his laptop by now.
Wouldn't they all be the same ISP address?
We're playing fair though.. our household is only worth four votes. :)
However, there are problems with what you are saying...
...and I will reply to each problem according to the letter you bulleted them with!
(a) You can clear your cookies and refresh the page in order to vote as many times as you like.
(b) Alabama is the first state alphabetically.
(c) 2 weeks is plenty of time for people to cheat the system and skew the answers
(d) yes there are TONS of VOTES... but we aren't sure how many of these votes are computer saavy individuals voting several times.
(e) yes, this seems more reliable than one of those skewed Luntz polls.... But Luntz calls real people, whether they are tricked into the answer or not.
Posted By: Defend Your Views
Date: 2007-12-29 10:23:51
Chase Lepard is pointing to your article and basically calling you a liar. He said that he was able to vote multiple times when you say that the poll is Spam Proof.
I am here to tell you that you CAN vote multiple times, HOWEVER... the vote is only counted ONCE. Chase doesn
1. creator - "The main thing that continues to concern me is the likelyhood of stolen elections."
Vote fraud only works on close elections - it does NOT work for landslides. Ergo -Every Ron Paul Supporter Must Vote!! And get their friends to vote for Ron Paul!! Use paper ballots if at all possible. If not possible, make sure your vote has registered correctly. Do whatever possible to prevent machine fraud. And also if possible, volunteer to be an observer and/or to count votes.
2. Dave - "I have read articles speculating about the possibility of assassination plots against Dr. Paul."
First, it's a good idea not to put energy into this thought form. Second, there's an excellent posting by Alan Stang that goes beyond 'assassination' to the reasons why this isn't such a good idea for the nasties to contemplate ('Are the Globalists Out To Get Ron Paul?' http://www.newswithviews.com/Stang/alan21.htm). Well worth a read and a pass-on-to-others.
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2007 Jim ODonnell, all rights reserved.