Rand Paul Shocks Republican Faithful In First Poll
The son of the famous Congressman from Texas scores a shockingly high second place in the initial poll for the 2010 Senate race in Kentucky. by Walt Thiessen
(libertarian)
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
A WHAS-TV poll of the upcoming Kentucky race for U.S. Senator has Dr. Rand Paul running just 11 points behind front-runner Trey Grayson, the secretary of state, for the Republican nomination, firmly establishing Paul as the leading challenger in that race. Grayson received the support of 37% of likely Republican voters, and Paul had 26%. Other candidates combined for 7%, with 30% undecided. What's remarkable about this result is that Paul has barely even begun to campaign.
When I contacted Dr. Paul to ask him if he thought this poll result gives his campaign more credibility, he replied, "Absolutely. The media report said we should be 'ecstatic', and we are. We've not even done a mailing of the primary list yet. I've been campaigning for only about three months, only about three weeks as an official candidate, and my opponent has been campaigning for eight years!"
He went on to say, "We are within striking distance of the establishment Republican and in a dead heat with the leading Democrat. At this stage of the race, we couldn't ask for better results. Our numbers will only move higher as we begin to get our name and message out."
The numbers have to come as disappointing news to Mr. Greyson, even though he has the support of the Republican party leadership. To have a relatively unknown eye doctor come this close in such an early poll amounts to a body blow. Without a doubt, it also makes this a genuine race.
Undoubtedly, much of the support comes from the fact that Dr. Paul is the son of his famous father, whose surprising internet-driven surge captured a lot of attention in the 2008 presidential campaign. However, even the candidate must be pinching himself. Just a few days ago, during an interview for an article published on this website, he mentioned in answer to a question that he probably wouldn't have wanted to know the results of a name-recognition poll if it had been conducted this past Spring. Now, however, this new poll result must erase any such doubts from his own mind, not to mention the minds of his opponents.
I asked Dr. Paul to what factor he attributes this astonishing result. He replied unequivocably, "Unrest in the Republican voter. I believe there is a disconnect between the primary voter, who favors balanced budgets and limited government, and the Republican leadership, who voted for deficit after deficit and for the Bank Bailout."
In addition to polling well against Grayson, Paul also is in a statistical dead heat with former Democratic Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo at 43% to 41%, well within the poll's 2.3% margin for error, and he slightly trailed Democrat Jack Conway 43% to 38%.
It will be very interesting to see how this affects his scheduled money bomb on Thursday. As of today, he has 2,300 out of the goal of 10,000 donors scheduled to give to his campaign that day. Can his supporters rally to commit the remaining 7,700 donors needed to reach the goal in only one day? Probably not, but it will certainly be interesting to see the results tomorrow. Paul himself said, "I hope it will increase the enthusiasm. Even in our liberty movement, we naturally become more excited when we have a chance of winning."
As for future money bombs, the candidate added that they're toying with the idea of doing another November 5th money bomb. Given the success of his father's money bomb on that date in 2007, that might equate to another November surprise.
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Posted By: Jahfre Fire Eater
Date: 2009-08-19 11:15:25
Hi Walt,
That is really good to see but I don't place much faith in it without knowing how "likely Republican voters" relates to "likely Republican primary voters". Those who will vote in the primary are the only ones who's poll response has any value, the rest is merely noise from the emotivists.
Posted By: Walt Thiessen
Date: 2009-08-19 11:28:04
Jahfre,
According to SurveyUSA, who conducted the survey, "SurveyUSA interviewed 2,200 Kentucky adults 08/15/09 through 08/17/09. Of them, 1,944 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 516 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the May 2010 Republican Primary; 647 were determined to be likely voters in the May 2010 Democratic primary."
SWEET! The "wool pulled over the eyes" of America is really starting to fray around the edges. If the PTB don't get some censorship of the internet pretty soon then they are in real danger of losing a lot of power.
This isn't surprising since Rand Paul represents what the majority of Americans both Republican, Democrat and Libertarian believe in; small government. I think Rand Paul has a great shot at the nomination and election, especially with the latest poll numbers.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * The darkhorse candidate for the Kentucky Senate Dr Rand Paul a Constitutional Republican has proven to be more than a distraction polling almost identical numbers to his Primary opponent for the General Election, and raising more than a million dollars in the third quarter.
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