The recent official declaration of Rand Paul for Kentucky's senatorial seat being vacated by incumbent Jim Bunning is, in the words of the candidate, "not just a protest." by Walt Thiessen
(libertarian)
Thursday, August 13, 2009
When you talk with Rand Paul, it's impossible to forget that he is his father's son. The same kind of warmth, the same kind of genuineness of character, comes shining through. So also the same issue emphasis comes through, along with his determination not to pull punches. Like father, like son.
Paul talks about the national debt being the most important issue we face. He doesn't hesitate to say in the next breath that he decided to enter this campaign because he intends to win the Republican primary, and then the general election that follows it.
"The debt is my main motivating reason for running for office," he said to me in his trademark clear and calm tone during a phone interview late yesterday afternoon. "It's anticipated that the debt will reach 13% of GNP next year, and that government spending will reach 28% of GNP. The Federal Reserve doubled the money base last year. I think we're going to pay for it with inflation once all this new money leaks into the economy. I'm projecting 1979-style stagflation, possibly in as few as three years."
He doesn't think the entire outlook is dire, but his attitude remains very cautionary. He says, "We're going to get some growth. The Dow may hit 10,000, but it's going to be joined by significant inflation and high unemployment. With the fear that the Fed could pull the plug too soon without decent growth, we could see things get out of control."
He thinks that Republicans are ready for what he calls his "tough love." He doesn't hesitate to share it with them.
"As I've been speaking to crowds across the state of Kentucky, I tell them that hypocrisy is the one, true bipartisan trait. You've got Republicans who wear their family values on their sleeves, then they head off to South America to spend time with their mistresses. On the other side of the aisle, you have Democrats who say, 'Pay your fair share of taxes,' then when appointed to high office, they don't pay their fair share."
Surprisingly enough, his "tough love" seems to resonate with Republican voters, based on the feedback he gets. A year or two ago, when his father said much the same kind of thing during the presidential election cycle, Republicans most often pooh-poohed and dismissed such notions. Now, however, Paul thinks they're receptive and paying attention.
He has good reason to think so. With Congress's 20% approval rating, the fact that only 50% of eligible voters register to vote, and the fact that 50% of registered voters consistently vote in elections, it's no wonder, he points out, that cynicism dominates the political scene these days.
"The bank bailout was the worst vote of a generation," Paul declares. "It's the gift that keeps on taking. It's gotten so bad that even minority broadcasters are now asking for TARP money. The U.S. Treasury has so much discretion under the TARP law that they can use it to buy into any industry they want to within the United States."
Then he goes on to say, "I think Republicans are ready to hear the tough love Rand Paul gives them. Our party is an empty vessel unless we imbue it with values."
Will this combination of libertarian economics and appeals to traditional values work? Paul thinks so. He also thinks he'll need to raise $2 million overall to be a viable player in the primary. He says so far his campaign has raised a little over $210,000, and he has his money bomb coming up a week from today on August 20th, which could add another million if all goes well. Like the Peter Schiff money bomb earlier this month, the goal is to get 10,000 donors to give $100 each. So far, a little over 2,000 have pledged to donate that day.
Paul speaks highly of Schiff and notes with gratitude that Schiff donated money to Paul's campaign. He tries to return the favor and openly endorses Schiff's drive for the Republican nomination in Connecticut's Republican primary for Chris Dodd's Senate seat next year.
I asked Paul how he plans to win his own race. He says the three prongs to his campaign will include direct mail, radio and TV advertising, and door-to-door canvassing, particularly in the more densely populated centers of Kentucky: Louisville, Lexington, and Northern Kentucky (near Cincinnati, OH).
"When my Dad won [his reelection bid in Texas] in '96, we got 30 or 40 kids and relatives to go out and canvas neighborhood doors of past primary voters. We'll do the same thing here in Kentucky," he described confidently.
He already has a small army to help him do just that. He claims to have on-the-ground access to a few thousand people already expressing willingness to help the movement. He has the support of Take Back Kentucky, a grassroots coalition dedicated to "preserv[ing] the God given rights that were recognized by the constitutions of Kentucky and the United States of America." He also founded Kentucky Taxpayers United in 1994 under the umbrella of Take Back Kentucky. He says the organization does a taxpayer rating and scorecard of individual representatives in the state legislature. He also claims the support of Americans for Tax Reform which asks politicians to sign a pledge not to raise taxes if elected to office.
I asked him how his patients in his ophthalmology practice have reacted to his candidacy. He answered, "My patients are very supportive: Republicans, Democrats, and libertarians and independents though some are worried about me leaving my practice." Not surprisingly, no one wants to lose a good eye doctor when they have one, although his patients also recognize we need people in government with 20/20 vision.
As an aside, I also asked him about his name. Rumor has spread around the Internet that he was named after Ayn Rand, the late novelist. He laughs and says, "No, my given name at birth was Randall, but when I met my wife she thought I was too old to be 'Randy' any more, so now I'm just Rand." He does emphasize, however, that he is a fan of Rand's work, noting that it's sad that she chose to be so authoritarian in her social circle.
Getting back to the election, Paul says he plans to contact 3,500 physicians from all specialties across the state of Kentucky, asking for their support. He says his views on health care have initially received a warm reception from physicians. He also plans to name coordinators for each of the counties in Kentucky in anticipation of ground-level campaigning and get out the vote efforts as primary day approaches, including well-staffed phone banks working toward that goal. He also says, "We register new voters everywhere we go and encourage independents and third party folks to re-register for the primary."
In other words, Rand Paul is pulling out all the stops and running full speed ahead for the Senate. If he is able to follow through on his plans and intentions, front runner Trey Greyson better watch out. He could find himself running from behind.
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Posted By: Walt Thiessen
Date: 2009-08-13 15:00:05
cakewalk: I respect your concern, but I also want you to know why I think your concern is misplaced in this case.
Rand himself expressed no similar concerns before supplying that information to me when I spoke with him. I have every confidence that if he felt such information needed to be kept confidential, he would have said so. In fact, there were a few things he told me about that he did ask me to keep confidential, and of course I honored those requests.
So here's a question for you. Why didn't he share your concern? The answer is actually quite simple. None of what he told me was a secret or was out of the ordinary for a successful campaign. Look at what he talked about. He talked about things which everysuccessful candidate does in every successful campaign.
He talked about reaching out to groups that support him and are willing to help him.
He talked about using direct mail and advertising and door-to-door canvassing.
He talked about what worked in his father's '96 campaign (which, by the way, Ron Paul himself talked about often and which he used again this past year).
He talked about how many votes he thinks he needs to win an election.
Do you honestly think that any of that information is going to surprise a political operative working for one of his opponents? Of course not.
On the other hand, the positive side of what he did is that he served notice to his opponents that they can't assume his campaign will be a lark. To the contrary, they now know he's a force to be reckoned with. This will encourage the other candidates to address Paul's statements, his positions on the issues, etc. In other words, it will increase the likelihood of his acceptance as a mainstream candidate.
In every serious campaign, the managers and leading operatives of those campaigns know all about the plans and strategies of their opponents. With rare exceptions (such as last minute "hit piece" mailings in the home stretch of a campaign or something like that), all sides know exactly what's going to happen in terms of likely and/or actual strategies, plans, and intentions.
Of course, there is benefit to withhold specific details as to when and how certain aspects of a strategy will be implemented, but that doesn't affect the overall plan itself.
So again, while I understand your concern, my suggestion is: relax. Rand and his campaign management team aren't concerned, so don't let it concern you.
Outstanding article Walt!!! I agree 100% with Mr. Nolan (who I have admired for years). Having two Pauls in Washington would be great. I would also like to see Schiff, Adam Kokesh, RJ Harris, and John Dennis (running against Pelosi) also in Washington. Thanks for the support for the liberty-minded candidates.
Posted By: Jahfre Fire Eater
Date: 2009-08-13 20:08:14
Hi Walt,
Thanks for the great update on Dr. Paul the younger's campaign and vision. Your blindspot skewed your report drastically though in my view. When you listed the keys to a successful campaign you left off the most important thing. The most important aspect of Dr. Paul's campaign is that he is using the most effective political tool available to him, the GOP.
You can report all the great stuff but if voters can't grasp the most important factor in the entire matter I think you're definitely not helping, his cause. No voter can help him win the GOP primary unless they are a registered republican. (Or whatever variation Kentucky might have for primary elections...I don't know.)
Third party members and independents who want to sit in their sandbox near the political arena and cheer him on, well, that's nice and all but isn't really worth a damn toward his success.
I know, I know, a lot of people aren't really interested in success or even constructive results, they just want to feel good about their self-imposed futility. I don't care about them. I hope some who are reading this finally come to understand that parties are tools and that not using the best tool for an important job doesn't make the tool look bad. Hint, Hint. ;-)
To be fair, you didn't avoid mentioning the GOP. You just didn't highlight it as the most important aspect of both Ron and Rand Paul's political presence or give any tips on how individual voters can promote and support Rand's campaign in constructive ways aimed at winning GOP members votes in a primary election.
Ron Paul's poison fans undermined his message at every opportunity. I hope Rand's supporters take a lesson from Campaign for Liberty on that and stay away from the tactics that alienate the GOP voters he needs to have to win the primary. They managed to shoot his dad's campaign in the foot with their rabid "support" so he didn't have a snowball's chance in hell in the primary even though he would have mopped the floor with Obama had he managed to secure the GOP nomination.
Once the primary elections are over party affiliations are a moot point. The only reason to affiliate is to influence the selection of candidates on the ballot. In Kentucky, the best reason to affiliate with a party this year is to make sure Rand Paul wins the primary election.
Posted By: Walt Thiessen
Date: 2009-08-14 03:16:13
Hi Jahfre,
Well, I understand what you're saying, but my article was about my interview and conversation with Rand Paul. It wasn't intended as a definitive analysis of the strengths of his campaign.
Nor do I agree that I failed to mention that the GOP is an important tool in his campaign. To the contrary, I quoted Paul himself to that effect.
I know you are a strong advocate of using the GOP to promote liberty, but I think your reaction is a little bit overboard in this case. Just my opinion, of course.
Posted By: Richard Shank
Date: 2009-08-17 16:06:18
@Jekyll: Don't forget there are a few other liberty candidates, like Jaynee Germond from OR, Jake Town from PA, Paul Lambert from AL and Mike Vasovski from SC. All of these candidates need our finacial and word of mouth support.
I'd like to share the following with you. Tim Cox, the founder of GOOOH has conducted over 3000 mock candidate selection sessions all over the United States. The most interesting statistics that Tim discoverd in his travels were from mock sessions conducted in San Francisco and surrounding areas. In regards to non-partisanship, he discovered that the majority of folks attending those sessions were registered Democrats, not liberals or progressives, but Democrats that are fiscal minded and believe in smaller government. As the sessions are conducted, participants answer questions and share their positions with others at their table and at the end of the session the votes are talleyed and the questionairre is turned in. Tim studied the answers and discovered that 80 % of the participants responded along the same line as conservative groups in Colorado Springs or Tomball, Texas, where they differ the most was gun, God and gay issues. The point is that there are approximately 660 thousand people in each congressional district and if a large national group should endorse GOOOH, the "process" will not allow for an overload of partisan indivduals to effect the outcome. When the real process begins, pools of ten will be randomly selected from the potential 660,000 people in that District. There are countless group out there and some have come to the conclusion that the two party system is broke and corrupt and have created a duopoly whereby an honest, virtuous American citizen from the private sector does not have a chance to become a representative and most will not even attempt to for two reasons. One is they don't have the ten's of millions of dollars and two, they do not want to sell thier soul to the lobbyist and special interest groups or to a party. As I'm sure you realize, a group of 600,000 members will never agree on anyone thing, and I sure this will hold true for the conservative party. The leadership has endorsed GOOOH, but there will be a percentage of the members that will not. So again, we welcome the endorsement and hope more groups, like your's will take a look at this paradigm shift in politics as usual. Tim and all of us are convinced that 100 years from now, the history books will tell of the GOOOH Revolution.
In regards to candidates vetted, lined up and ready to go, GOOOH does not vet candidates, as the "selections process" takes place the participants sitting a the tables of 10 vett each other and each table will select two from that table and the following week the winners from each table in each congressional district nationwide will move to the next round and repeat itself until one person rises to the top and is selected - by their peers. Remember, GOOOH is not a party, it is the vehicle that allows for the selection process to take place. I invite you to locate and attend a mock selection session near you so you can fully understand the process and experience the energy and optimism that is generated by the vast majority that attend. Feel free to contact me for help finding a session near you. You may go to www.goooh.com and on the US map, click on your State or contact me directly at goooh.tx@gmail.com
As Benjamin Franklin said famously when signing the Declaration of Independence, "We must, indeed, all hang together, or most assuredly we will all hang separately.
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