Is It Just Me?
columnist: Ben, Sr.

Topic: Political Parties
Last Chance for the GOP?

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The gubernatorial elections could mean a change of fortunes for Republicans, or the nail in the coffin. We shall see.

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by Ben, Sr.
(libertarian)
Monday, May 18, 2009

It seems in the near constant media coverage of President Obama's administration and the Pelosi/Reid Congress, there is not much discussion outside of local programming of the upcoming gubernatorial elections coming up this year in New Jersey and Virginia, as well as several mayoral elections in other states. This is not surprising, given the non-stop growth of the federal government and increasing usurpation of states' rights.

On the surface, it would seem there is little to no reason for one to pay much attention to the gubernatorial elections. After all, even if a state legislature and/or governor should talk about states' rights or even secession, federal government aid has recently become the number one source of revenue for the states. [1] It would seem sadly unlikely that any assertions of state sovereignty would last long when the federal government could cut off aid to any state that doesn't fall in line.

Still, the elections the year after the Presidential election usually serve as an indication of public approval concerning the ruling party, or at least its policies. They also tend to serve as a sign of things to come in the mid-term elections. In 1993, Bill Clinton found himself in the enviable position of being President when his own party held the majority in both houses of Congress. The tide abruptly changed in that year's gubernatorial elections.

In Virginia, George Allen took the governorship in a near 20-point landslide, [2] while Christine Todd Whitman edged out James Florio in New Jersey. [3] One short year later, the Republicans swept into power in both houses of Congress for the first time in over 40 years. While Clinton won re-election in 1996, it was against a very weak candidate, Bob Dole.

George W. Bush found himself in a similar situation in 2005, having just won re-election the year before and having expanded his party's power base in Congress. In Virginia, it was Tim Kaine beating out Jerry Kilgore by almost six points, [4] while Jon Corzine won with a double-digit landslide in New Jersey. [5] One would need to have a very short memory not to know what followed in 2006 and 2008.

As a New Jerseyan, which I am not thrilled to be, I personally take great interest in my state's gubernatorial elections, and am even volunteering on one candidate's campaign (I won't say whose). On the Republican side, Chris Christie and Steve Lonegan are daring to battle it out in a state where even their party tends to shy away from conservative values and limited government ideas, yet they each boast of their conservative credentials. Time will tell if they are true to their claims of limited government and cutting taxes.

Both candidates, according to the latest Rasmussen poll, could beat Corzine if the election were held today. [6] Only one, however, can win the primary in just a couple short weeks (the last time I will be voting as a registered Republican).

If the Republicans can actually put up a real fiscal conservative and win in a state like New Jersey, there is the possibility they can retain some of their significance on the national stage, and even regain the appearance of an being alternative to the Democrats. If not, look for the Democrats to hold or expand their majorities in both houses of Congress, and for a period of obvious one-party rule similar to when the Federalists and the Whigs disappeared - unlike the hidden one-party rule we've had for a while, where there are differences on minor issues, but there's no difference where it really matters. At that point, perhaps the Libertarian or Constitution Party (or both) will rise to national prominence from the ashes of the once Grand Old Party.

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©2009 Ben, Sr., all rights reserved. You must have written permission from the author in order to republish this work.
Published: Monday, May 18, 2009
Last modified: Tuesday, May 19, 2009

The views expressed in this article are those of Ben, Sr. only and do not represent the views of Nolan Chart, LLC or its affiliates. Ben, Sr. is solely responsible for the contents of this article and is not an employee or otherwise affiliated with Nolan Chart, LLC in his/her role as a columnist.

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