Topic: Presidential Campaign 2008
Tancredo Out, Who's Next? The GOP cannot settle on a front-runner, and may not have one by Super Tuesday. Tancredo got his message out and dropped out.by Bob Nightingale
(libertarian)
Friday, December 21, 2007
A few days ago, I noticed that Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter didn't file in the Virginia primary. Yesterday (12/20/07), Tancredo dropped out of the race. At his website, Tancredo-dot-org, he thanks his supporters and believes he has already won by forcing the other Republican candidates to make enforcement of immigration laws part of their campaigns. He believes that staying in the race, when he knows he can't win, may take away votes from another candidate who do share his views.
Unfortunately, the candidate who I felt was as adamant about immigration as he was is Duncan Hunter ("I built the fence!"). With such low polling numbers, Hunter will probably drop out next month.
The Chicago Tribune reports that Tancredo will back Mitt Romney. Romney did fire the company working at his home after being warned not to hire an illegal immigrant. Given the alternatives, who else was he going to choose? McCain is blamed for the failed immigration bill that included amnesty. Giuliani allowed illegal immigrants to report crimes in New York, while he was mayor. Huckabee gave children of illegal immigrants college scholarships, while he was governor of Arkansas. Did Thompson announce he's running yet? Ron Paul doesn't believe in building the fence, but does want to bring the border guards back from Iraq and deny benefits to those here illegally. I didn't know that Alan Keyes could afford the airfare to the last debate.
Dick Morris, a long time advisor to the Clintons, made a prediction in the New York Post this week (12/19/07) that the Michigan primary will be the next day of winnowing. He says that Iowa (Jan. 3) and New Hampshire (Jan. 8) are the semi-finals, but Michigan (Jan.15) will be the big day where the front runner will emerge before Super Tuesday. Romney and Huckabee will have their war of the faithful in Iowa, and the war of the moderates between McCain and Giuliani will happen in New Hampshire. He says that crazy Ron Paul won't give up the ghost. He dismisses Thompson and the rest. In the latest EPIC-MRA poll Romney is in the lead at 21%, Huckabee 19%, Giuliani 12%, McCain 10%, Paul 4%, and Thompson 4%.
Romney's father George W. Romney was governor in Michigan from 1963 to 1969. The elder Romney ran for president in 1968, but lost to Nixon. So there is some name recognition, if you're a voter over 50.
Giuliani will stick around even if he only places third or better in each of the races, until Florida. He's been polling well there, but Huckabee and Romney aren't far behind. Florida (57 after the sanctions) has one fourth of delegates (211 running total) by Jan. 29. Florida is a winner-take-all state. If Giuliani loses Florida, he'd have to make it up during Super Tuesday, where 1,313 delegates will be decided in one day. By then two or three of the other candidates may have called it quits.
Nevada (Jan. 19) is another state where Giuliani was polling well. Again, Huckabee and Romney are nipping on Giuliani's heels. If he doesn't get at least 3rd place, he'd have to give some serious pause.
The problem with the dozens of polls out there, the margin of error makes any number within 5% to be no more than a guess. It's wide open and may not be final until the convention. The point I've tried to make in several recent articles is that if a candidate has the money and hasn't outright lost yet, there is no reason for him to drop out. I want to see the financial disclosures next month. Does McCain and Huckabee have the cash to go the distance in a tight race? Romney and Giuliani can weather several losses because of deep pockets.
Ron Paul best exemplifies deep-pockets viability. He never gets above 10% in any of these polls, yet his followers raise millions of dollars for him, rent a blimp, and flood every on-line poll. In any other year, he would have been relegated to a position candidate, much like Tom Tancredo. His message of non-interventionism is in such contrast to the field of remaining candidates, that there is no hope any of them will pick it up. Tancredo accomplished his goal on immigration, making it a fighting point. Romney looked a little tougher on it than Giuliani, Huckabee and McCain. But just barely.
Hopefully Paul's messages of smaller government and balanced budgets will get through to some of them. Neither party has been willing to bring spending under control. The economy has crept up as a more important issue than the war recently. The federal budget for 2008 still hasn't been approved. The national debt is past $9 trillion, and dollar has temporarily halted its slide against the Euro and Loonie in the last month. It's not over by a long shot.
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The views expressed in this
article are those of Bob Nightingale only and do not represent
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