Topic: Energy
The case for electric transportation Why electricity is currently cheaper than oil for transportation. How electric cars would spur economic growth.by Carter Brown
(libertarian)
Sunday, November 23, 2008
We know today a few things about the future of transportation. In the wake of political debate over corn ethanol, it is widely held that we will be driving electric cars; either powered by batteries, or hydrogen fuel cells. The reason for that is twofold: for sustainability reasons, and for technological reasons. Currently, the world uses non-renewable resources for energy, particularly transportation energy.
All of the energy that is available for our consumption comes from either solar radiation, gravity, or heat from the pressure of the earth. Fossil fuels are excess condensed solar energy from the past, it is widely believed that bacteria synthesized solar radiation and carbon dioxide into oxygen, became trapped under sediment at the bottom of oil fields, and over time, with heat and pressure from the earth, those bacteria chemically converted into oil, natural gas, coal etc. What this means is we are relying on energy that has been banked for us, and we are running through it fast. It is as if we have discovered some buried treasure and spending it as if it will never run out.
But we are running out too. Despite the recent drop in oil prices, over the long run these prices have been rising and will continue to rise as reserves run out. Many Republicans maintain the "Drill Baby, Drill" strategy, however only ~3% of America's oil needs would be satisfied by opening up even if the ANWR to drilling, and this would be short lived, and would require a very expensive pipeline to be built over several mountain ranges.
We have an accurate date for when peak oil will occur (the point at which oil production declines instead of increases) but many experts maintain it will happen within the next 10 years (2025), the graph on the peakoil.org website pins the date at roughly 2015. To put it bluntly, when oil production dropped only 5% in the 1970's, prices increased almost 400%. Demand for oil is increasing rapidly, and growing economies are leading the bulk of that new demand. China's growing economy accounts for 38% of the increasing oil demand.
Increasing fuel efficiency will also not solve this problem, it has been widely known by economists that increasing energy efficiency actually increases demand (Jevons 1865), Therefore, technologies such as hybrid cars make transportation more affordable for more people, increasing total oil consumption.
Using electric cars powered by batteries or hydrogen eliminates the peak oil problem, and the technology for the production of those vehicles exists today. Gone are claims that these technologies are 10 years off. Honda is a currently leasing hydrogen car in the California market; numerous car manufactures are doing the same for battery-powered vehicles. So why aren't these cars being widely adopted, or rather, why aren't they only being sold to niche markets?
One problem is the price of batteries, however because the car costs far less to run (cost per mile, and maintenance) than an internal combustion engine, its use should increase. People will drive more, and that will help the economy. People will be less hesitant to stay home. The electric car market stretches well beyond the geography of California's zero emissions mandate. Electric vehicles also insulate individuals against oil price shocks. Companies that have fleets of vehicles, where one of the primary operating costs is gasoline, can make great use of that insulation. Furthermore, there are many individuals that are more than willing to pay more for sustainable products, and that includes sustainable delivery. One of the best examples of this is the postal service, who's runs average 25 miles, and where the vehicles stop frequently to load and unload the mail. Electric postal trucks are quickly becoming a popular option. Unless they become an option for other sectors of the economy, the economy undergo a terrible shock when peak oil occurs, and the most profitable businesses will be the ones that invested in this technology early on.
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Posted By: Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D.
Date: 2008-11-24 05:35:31
According to most independent scientific studies, global oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time demand will increase 9%.
No one can reverse this trend, nor can we conserve our way out of this catastrophe. Because the demand for oil is so high, it will always exceed production levels; thus oil depletion will continue steadily until all recoverable oil is extracted.
Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The Energy Watch Group (funded by the German Parliament) concludes in a current report titled: “Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:”
"By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame."
http://www.globaliamagazine.com/?id=482
We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel trucks for maintenance of bridges, cleaning culverts to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables, all from far away. With the highways out, there will be no food coming in from "outside," and without the power grid virtually nothing works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated systems.
This is documented in a free 48 page report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html
I used to live in NH-USA, but moved to a sustainable place. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area with a good climate and good soil? Email: clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com or give me a phone call which operates here as my old USA-NH number 603-668-4207. http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/
That's an exciting doomsday scenario, but I am afraid that it is a long way off.
Don't forget (or neglect) that multiple billions of BBL have been discovered offshore of Brazil, of which recovery developement efforts have been started. This if I recall correctly, is of similar size to the original Saudi find. ANWAR is also HUGE. Billions of barrels huge, which can be recovered at the rate of 1-2million\day using current estimates. No, this isn't a panacea for total US usage but it certainly helps. Despite D\Marxist whining about "not available for 10 years" as the price of oil fell, the OPEC cartel decided to cut output by 1/5M BBL\Day why? Because *they* felt that it'd have an effect on the market.
1-2M BBL\Day *will* have a positive effect. Don't fret about the cost of building the pipelines. If the oil companies what to bring their product to market, it should be *their* responsibility and theirs alone to shoulder that cost. If it fails... oh well; that's why there is bankruptcy and liquidation proesses for failed companies.
Don't forget the massive volumes of oil shale locacted in Colorodo and other mid-west areas so far. Given the advances in recovery techniques by companies such as Sun Cor (SU) in Canada, there are multiple-billions of barrels available there if the D party doesn't block its recovery.
In addition, there are vast amounts available in other off-shore locations. We have plenty of oil available if only we are allowed to go get it, for many years to come.
This doesn't mean that companies shouldn't be looking toward other opportunities and means of transportation, etc. Toyota and Honda have made great profits with their electric\hybrid vehicles, and now they are eating our short-sighted Big 3 Auto company's lunch. And well deserved, I might add.
We are in far more immediate dange of a melt down of society as Barry O pursues with more evangelical zeal his Marxist plans under the guise of a "New, New Deal". Goverment for government's sake. But that is a rant for a different blog.
Don't neglect to mention that in the pursuit of electric transportation that the vast majority of electicity produced in this country is done at plants that burn oil and coal, largely due to the enviro-marxist movements which prevented ANY expansion of nuclear fuel processing since the '70s. Barry O has also weighed in stating that he'd push for more regulations that would eviscerate the coal industry... this would be not only for electicity plants, but also mining, which negatively effects the coal-to-oil conversion processing being perfected.
Yes; no one denies that hydrocarbons are created during long periods of intense heat\pressure in geological cycles. This resource IS renewable, and a natural cycle, but not on a time scale to suit us. Unfortunately, other options for intermittant and limited electrical generation from "renewable" sources are blocked avidly by the same enviro-marxists that deny us nuclear power.
Windfarms outside of Nantucket have been killed, as have similar efforts in the Gulf coasts of Texas and Florida. These are intermittant sources at best. As is solar (although this can be a small part of the mix), but also a very expensive generation option as the material used to create current solar panels causes its own pollution. Hell, enven the hoopla over battery use neglects the enviro issues of mining the toxic chemicals, shipment to and from China for manufacturing, and later disposal.
There is no panacea. Any Libertarian can certainly raise a warning of possible issues. Peak Oil has been a scare tactic offered in order to leverage the Fed Govt to force business and social changes for more than 30 years now and we have yet to see any peak as new technologies and new finds push that forecast further and further to the future.
Certainly, lets pursue other energy options where economically viable. Business people can get paid very well for making astute risks. Just please, don't waste your breath advocating that the US Fed step in and get involved in ANY way. They've already shown us their competence via the effect of the ethenal mandates - spikes in US food prices and 400%+ spikes overseas causing starvation and riots. Do you really want these same people making decisions that affect us?
The road to hell is paved with good intentions, I am told...
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