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Topic: Election 2008

Final Polls and 3rd Party Results

A look at the final general election day polls and table of third party results
by Bradley Jansen
(libertarian)
Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Election Day Final Polling Predictions

Here is a quick update on the latest November polling numbers going into the wait for the popular election day returns on the four main presidential candidates Republican John McCain, Democrat Barack Obama, Libertarian Bob Barr and independent Ralph Nader.  Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney was included only in the CNN/Opinion Research poll.  Ron Paul is included in the Democracy Corps as the standard bearer for the Constitution Party but he always got zero percent except for the asterisk on the last poll (Dr. Paul is on the ballot in Montana and Louisiana). 

Poll
Dates Conducted
Obama
McCain
Nader
Barr
McKinney
GWU Battleground
released Nov 4, 2008
50.2
48.3
0.6
0.9
NA
Democracy Corps
Oct. 30-Nov. 2, 2008
51
44
2
1
NA
Ipsos/McClatchy (LV)
Oct. 30-Nov. 2, 2008
53
46
1
0
NA
CNN/Opinion Research
Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2008
53
41
3
1
0
Pew Research Center
Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 200
52
46
1
1
NA

As I have disclosed, I worked at The Tarrance Group during the 1996 general election and consider the GWU Battleground poll they conduct with Celinda Lake's Democratic group to be the best.  As the Battleground link shows, the "Battleground Tracking Poll Projection Closest Result of National Polls" for the 1992, 1996 and 2004 elections.  (John ZogbyProjection Closest of National Polls in 2000 and was also one of the only two who projected Gore victory on popular vote).

Other poll results taken from The Polling Report. 

Third Party Polling Results

97% Reporting
2008 VOTE %
2008 VOTE TOTALS
2004 VOTE %
2004 VOTE TOTALS
BARR
0.40%
490,594
0.32%
397,265   
NADER
0.54%
660,501
0.38%
463,655   
McKINNEY
0.1%
143,511
0.10%
119,859
BALDWIN
0.14%
175,694
0.12%
143,630


Inspired by an article on The Green Papers with an hour-by-hour look at what to expect tonight, I have compiled a way to tabulate the success of the minor parties.  The 2004 vote totals and percentages are taken from Dave Leip's Atlas of US Presidential Elections. 

STATE
(poll closing order)
(% reporting)
 		BARR (Votes/%)
Libertarian 2004
NADER
Nader 2004
McKINNEY
Green 2004
BALDWIN
Constitution 2004
Guam  100%
212     0.65%
67          0.20%
Not on the ballot
196
Not on the ballotNot on the ballotNot on the ballotNot on the ballot
Indiana 99%
29,186    1%
18,058    0.73%
Write-in1,328    0.05%Write-in102    0.00%Write-inNot on the ballot
Kentucky 100%
5,892        0%
2,619    0.15%
15,322       1%
8,856    0.49%
Write-inNot on the ballot4,621    0%
2,213    0.12%
Georgia 99%
28,420    1%
18,387    0.56%
Write-in2,231    0.07%Write-in228    0.01%Write-in580    0.02%
South Carolina 99%
7,455    0%
3,608    0.22%
5,331    0%
5,520    0.34%
5,504    0%
1,488    0.09%
6,615    0%
5,317    0.33%
Vermont 97%
964    0%
2,989    1%
2,498    1%
4,494    1.44%
Write-inNot on the ballot496    0%
Not on the ballot
Virginia 99%
10,568    0%
11,032    0.34%
10,814    0%
2,393    0.07%2,306    0%
104    0.00%7,185    0%
10,161    0.32%
Ohio 98%
18,190    0%
14,676    0.26%
38,879    1%
Not on the ballot7,780    0%
192    0.00%12,573    0%
11,939    0.21%
West Virginia 100%
Not on the ballot1,405    0.19%
7,173    1%
4,063    0.54%
2,355    0%
5    0.00%2,458    0%
82    0.01%
Alabama 99%
4,983    0%3,529    0.19%
6,609    0%
6,701    0.36%
Write-in
Not on the ballot4,300    0%
1,994    0.11%
Connecticut 98%
Not on the ballot3,367    0.21%
17,665    1%
12,969    0.82%
Write-in9,564    0.61%
Write-in1,543    0.10%
Delaware 100%
1,108    0%
586    0.16%
2,401    1%
2,153    0.57%
385    0%
250    0.07%
626    0%
289    0.08%
DC 100%
Write-in
502    0.22%
851    0%
1,485    0.65%498    0%
737    0.32%
Not on the ballotNot on the ballot
Florida 99%
16,587    0%
11,996    0.16%
27,154    0%
32,971    0.43%
2,758    0%
3,917    0.05%
7,673    0%
6,626    0.09%
Illinois 99%
19,061    0%
32,442    0.62%
30,417    1%
3,571    0.07%11,629    0%
241    0.00%8,106    0%440    0.01%
Maine 92%
Write-in
1,965    0.27%
9,972    1%
8,069    1.09%
2,675    0%
2,936    0.40%
Write-in735    0.10%
Maryland 99%
8,903    0%
6,094    0.26%
13,291    1%
11,854    0.50%
4,237    0%3,632    0.15%
3,415    0%
3,421    0.14%
Massachusetts 99%
12,989    0%
15,022    0.52%
28,511    1%
4,806    0.17%6,520    0%
10,623    0.36%
5,023    0%
Not on the ballot
Mississippi 99%
2,416    0%
1,793    0.16%
3,719    0%
3,177    0.28%
1,086    0%
1,073    0.09%
2,441    0%
1,759    0.15%
Missouri 100%
11,355    0%
9,831    0.36%
17,769    1%1,294    0.05%Write-inNot on the ballot8,181    0%
5,355    0.20%
New Hampshire 93%
1,982    0%
372    0.05%3,183    0%
4,479    0.66%
Write-inNot on the ballotWrite-in161    0.02%
New Jersey 99%
8,017    0%
4,514    0.12%
20,254    1%
19,418    0.54%
3,459    0%
1,807    0.05%
4,724    0%
2,750    0.08%
Oklahoma
Not on the ballotNot on the ballotNot on the ballotNot on the ballotNot on the ballotNot on the ballotNot on the ballotNot on the ballot
Pennsylvania 99%
19,907    0%
21,185    0.37%
41,479    1%
2,656    0.05%Write-in6,319    0.11%Write-in6,318    0.11%
Tennessee 100%
8,487    0%4,866    0.20%
11,523    0%
8,992    0.37%
2,489    0%
33    0.00%8,163    0%
2,570    0.11%
Arkansas 98%
4,704    0%
2,352    0.22%
12,804    1%
6,171    0.58%
3,434    0%
1,488    0.14%
3,998    0%
2,083    0.20%
North Carolina 100%
25,349    1%
11,731    0.34%
Write-in1,805    0.05%Write-in108    0.00%Not on the ballotNot on the ballot
Arizona 99%
10,394    1%
11,856    0.59%
9,172    0%
2,773    0.14%2,778    0%
138    0.01%Write-inNot on the ballot
Colorado
9,398    0%
7,664    0.36%
11,580    1%
12,718    0.60%
2,390    0%1,591    0.07%
5,437    0%
2,562    0.12%
Kansas 100%
6,564    1%
4,013    0.34%
10,242    1%
9,348    0.79%
Write-in33    0.00%4,051    0%
2,899    0.24%
Louisiana 100%
Not on the ballot2,781    0.14%
6,991    0%
7,032    0.36%
9,184    0%
1,276    0.07%
2,579    0%
5,203    0.27%
Michigan 100%
23,962    0%
10,552    0.22%
33,356    1%
24,035    0.50%
9,123    0%
5,325    0.11%
14,973    0%
4,980    0.10%
Minnesota 100%
9,176    0%
4,639    0.16%
30,155    1%18,683    0.66%
5,210    0%
4,408    0.16%
6,787    0%
3,074    0.11%
Nebraska 99%
2,626    0%
2,041    0.26%
5,212    1%
5,698    0.73%
982    0%
978    0.13%
2,902    0%
1,314    0.17%
New Mexico 100%
2,325    0%
2,382    0.31%
5,059    1%
4,053    0.54%
1,525    0%
1,226    0.16%
1,537    0%
771    0.10%
New York 99%
22,520    0%
11,607    0.16%
37,975    1%
99,873    1.35%
12,015    0%
87    0.00%Write-in207    0.00%
Rhode Island 98%
1,313    0%
907    0.21%
4,402    1%
4,651    1.06%
707    0%
1,333    0.30%
626    0%
339    0.08%
South Dakota 100%
1,835    0%
964    0.25%
4,267    1%
4,320    1.11%Not on the ballot
Not on the ballot1,895    1%
1,103    0.28%
Texas 100%
56,398    1%
38,787    0.52%
Write-in9,159    0.12%Write-in1,014    0.01%Write-in1,636    0.02%
Wisconsin 100%
8,795    0%
6,464    0.22%
17,402    1%
16,390    0.55%
4,234    0%
2,661    0.09%
5,022    0%
869    0.03%
Wyoming 100%
1,557    1%
2,465    1%
2,429    1%
2,741    1.13%
Write-inNot on the ballot1,172    0%
631    0.26%
Iowa 100%
4,619    0%
2,992    0.20%
7,992    1%
5,973    0.40%
1,500    0%
1,141    0.08%
4,427    0%
1,304    0.09%
Montana 100%
1,341    0%
1,733    0.38%
3,649    1%
6,168    1.37%
Write-in996    0.22%
Write-in1,764    0.39%
Nevada 100%
4,258    0%
3,176    0.38%
6,140    1%
4,838    0.58%
1,408    0%
853    0.10%
3,197    0%
1,152    0.14%
Utah 100%
6,461    1%
3,375    0.36%
7,644    1%
11,305    1.22%
908    0%
39    0.00%
11,131    1%
6,841    0.74%
California 97%
50,336    0%
50,165    0.40%
79,672    1%
19,218    0.15%28,045    0%
40,771    0.33%
Write-in26,645    0.21%
Hawaii 100%
1,226    0%
1,737    0.40%
3,461    1%
Not on the ballot894    0%
1,737    0.40%
4,725    1%
Not on the ballot
Idaho 100%
3,649    1%
3,844    0.64%
7,096    1%
1,115    0.19%
 58    0.01%1,682    1%
3,084    0.52%
North Dakota 100%
1,064    0%
851    0.27%
4,234    1%
3,756    1.20%Write-inNot on the ballot1,053    0%
514    0.16%
Oregon 72%
6,952    0%
7,260    0.40%
13,040    1%
Not on the ballot3,151    0%
5,315    0.29%
5,561    0%
5,257    0.29%
Washington 65%
4,618    0%
11,955    0.42%
16,888    1%
23,283    0.81%
2,163    0%
2,974    0.10%
5,416    0%
3,922    0.14%
Alaska 99%
1,090    0%
1,675    0.54%
2,677    1%
5,069    1.62%
Write-in1,058    0.34%
1,223    1%
2,092    0.67%


Please let me know of you find any 2004 mistakes, etc.  Bear in mind that official election returns will not be available for a few weeks.  My own absentee ballot went in the mail today and will not be tabulated tonight!

For a preview of the "real" election for the presidential electors to the electoral college, please see this page from the Green Papers that lists the time and place of the meeting for the true election.

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©2008 Bradley Jansen, all rights reserved. You must have written permission from the author in order to republish this work.
Published: Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Last modified: Thursday, November 6, 2008

The views expressed in this article are those of Bradley Jansen only and do not represent the views of Nolan Chart, LLC or its affiliates. Bradley Jansen is solely responsible for the contents of this article and is not an employee or otherwise affiliated with Nolan Chart, LLC in his/her role as a columnist.

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Reader Comments:

Posted By: Chris Baker
Date: 2008-11-04 21:56:25

Thank you for compling the numbers. It shows you are honest.

Your cheerleading for Barr was a complete embarrassment to yourself. If you are like most libertarians, I am also confident that you will learn nothing from this entire experience.

 

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