Topic: Presidential Campaign 2008
Ron Paul Donors Waiting to Exhale The slowdown in fundraising in the last two weeks is the calm before the storm. A repeat of Nov. 5 on Dec. 16 would give Paul over $15 million for the quarter.by Bob Nightingale
(libertarian)
Friday, December 14, 2007
This is one of the slowest weeks of fundraising so far for the Ron Paul campaign. There was a surge at the end of November, as seen in one of several graphs I've hot-linked to at www.RonPaulGraphs.com. Although the charts are live when you click on them below, I refer to the statistics as I saw them before 8 a.m. 12/14/07 EST.
This chart shows daily fundraising over the last five weeks.
If I was running an organized campaign, I would be pretty nervous at this point, seeing that only $100,000 was raised this week.
Why would supporters start decreasing support? Was it the influence of polls or poor performance in the latest debates? One answer is that the Paul campaign has nearly reached its stated goal of raising $12 million for the quarter. As of this morning, the campaign is showing on its homepage $11.4 million is already raised for the quarter. With only $600,000 to go and two weeks left in the quarter, the goal can be reached at $40,000 per day. The daily average for the quarter is over $150,000 per day, so it's doable. No worries.
But I have another theory. I believe Paul supporters are holding their breath for Sunday, December 16. That day commemorates the 234th anniversary of the Boston Tea Party. Www.teaparty07.com is taking pledges, but all the donations have to be done at the official campaign website www.ronpaul2008.com/donate.
How much will the next "moneybomb" raise? No one knows for sure. That's the whole point. This is a true grassroots effort. The randomness is inherent as with any volunteer organization. Neither of these events were planned by Ron Paul or his staff. It's just a bunch of ordinary folks with computers who decided to make it happen.
The Tea Party website wants to raise $10 million by getting 100,000 donors to send in $100 each. So far, there are barely 30,000 pledges, which would account for perhaps $3 million. But the pledges don't count until the credit cards get plugged into the campaign's website.
Maybe we can get a feel from the last money bomb? The one on November 5th raised $4.2 million on-line in one day. That skewed the end of quarter projection far above the $12 million goal set by the campaign to something closer to $16 million. That day is represented in the large step function in the middle of the next graph.
Zooming in on that one day, donations came to a near stop hours before money bomb was detonated. Donations came in a steady clip all day long. And then the donations stopped shortly after midnight. I'm going to guess that the pattern for December 16th will be similar.
If there is a repeat of November 5th, then Ron Paul will have over $15 million raised for the quarter. That will probably be more than either Mike Huckabee or John McCain can muster. Either of those two may have to call it quits, similar what Paul Tsongas did in 1992. In that year Bill Clinton overcame his personal issues and had plenty enough money to make it through Super Tuesday. With this war chest, it's premature to dismiss Ron Paul. And don't forget the power of the Blimp.
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Keep in mind for Nov. 5th 20k people signed up and 38k ended up donating. There's been a lot of speculation on the forums, but the majority say they know people who are planning to donate and didn't sign up (privacy). Also, the average donation on the 5th was around $100 IIRC. There has been more preparation time, so I wouldn't be surprised if it's more like $150-200. Lot's of people are "all in". Bottom line is the effort should bring $6-8 million easy.
$10M coming Sunday. The hype and awareness around Dec 16 is substantially greater. It's been talked about for a long time - even in the main stream press. We also have 30K-40K new die hard supporters since Nov 5 as indicated by Meetup/Myspace/Facebook/YouTube member growth. Having this kind of momentum just days before the primaries will change the game.
Yes, lots of people are "holding their breath" right now. ;)
The donations are down to a dribble. One supporter on ronpaulforums compared it to the calm before the tsunami hits. :D
I hope there are lots of contributors like me. I didn't start contributing till after Nov. 5 but have developed a burning desire to see naysaying pundits wearing neck braces for the next couple weeks due to the head-snapping effect of an over-$10-million day on Dec. 16th. I'll put in $1,000.
I will also be putting in $1,000. I believe there are a lot of RP supporters out there who have the means to contribute more than $100. Give what you can!
Beautiful turn of phrase DigitalBob: Waiting To Exhale.
You betcha. Although I don't know how much [my guess is $10 million] everyone wants to drop the bomb at the same time.
I have noticed the "flat-line" in the contributions over the past week or so. Since the campaign hasn't figured out out to spend it all yet, the best course is to let them have it all at one shot.
Sorta like Muhamud Ally in the "Rumble In The Jungle." First "rope a dope" and tire him out for most of the fight and then UNLOAD on him when he thinks you are just about out of the fight.
What I smoke is none of your business. I'd prefer it not be the government's either.
What I preceive will determine the Republican's candidate are money, ideas, and grassroots support. Media polls are fickle. They rely on who picks up the phone in the middle of the day and have the patience to talk to a pollster. Until the first votes are cast in Iowa and New Hampshire, we won't know if these polls correlate to the new reality of Politics 2.0. If bad weather and voter apathy kicks in, only those with the staunchest supporters will win.
If this race isn't decided by February 5th, it's going to take some cash to duke it out to the convention. Huckabee had less than $700,000 at the end of third quarter. Romney has deep pockets and seems to be immune to regular-people money problems. Giuliani seems to get big supporters, but I don't know how much he has left. Thompson had plenty of cash, but he hasn't gotten the support from the field that I thought he might. McCain may be in debt. We need to see the finance reports for the quarter in mid-January.
So far only Brownback has pulled out. I expect Tancredo and Hunter to be on the short list. I was surprised that Alan Keyes was still there in Iowa last week. It's never been this open in a very long time.
Unless the money matches the media buzz, Huckabee may be yesterday's story in a few weeks. And that's what I think.
$6 million dollar day. Unfortunately it took segregationist Governor Wallace to reveal the truth that "there's not a dime's worth of difference between" Republicans and Democrats. The Democrats willingly went along with the War in Iraq, suspension of Habeas Corpus, detaining protesters, banning books like "America Deceived' from Amazon, stealing private lands (Kelo decision), warrant-less wiretapping and refusing to investigate 9/11 properly. They are both guilty of treason.
Support Dr. Ron Paul and save this great nation.
Last link (before Google Books bends to gov't Will and drops the title):
America Deceived (book)
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