Summary of where the race for the presidency stands with predictions if the election were held today by Bradley Jansen
(libertarian)
Thursday, October 9, 2008
The 2008 presidential elections are about a month away. Over the course of this series on candidate support, I've looked at the six presidential contenders on enough ballots to get the 270 electoral college votes to get sworn in as president in January 2009. A preliminary look at the money race shows how much each candidate has raised. These figures come from the last Federal Election Commission reports through the end of August and are hyperlinked in each candidates name in the table. Next, I look at the estimated votes for Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain by taking their poll numbers from Real Clear Politics and multiplying them by the 2004 voter turnout. I then calculated the estimated vote totals for independent Ralph Nader, Libertarian Bob Barr, Green Cynthia McKinney and Constitution Party nominee Chuck Baldwin.
Here is what I have demonstrated for each of the candidates:
Democratic Party nominee Barack Obama got 47.2% of the average vote in a four-way race at the end of September and will be on the ballot in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Therefore, assuming a similar vote turnout from 2004, Obama will get an estimated 57,722,555 votes on election day.He is spending the most per voter to get his support with each ballot cast.
Republican John McCain received 42.8% of the vote on average in the same four-way race and is also on all ballots. His estimated vote total is 52,341,639.
Independent Ralph Nader fares best among the minor party candidates and has the highest name recognition. An August 21-23 Gallup poll put his favorability rating 29% favorable to 44% unfavorable to 16% unsure with only 11% saying they had never heard of him. The composite Nader supporter is most likely an independent, conservative, white male over 30 years old, from a "blue state" in the Midwest. I calculated Nader's support at 2.5%. Since he will be on the ballot for 85.2% of Americans, Nader should get 2,604,853 votes.
Libertarian Bob Barr is in the second-tier of candidates with Ralph Nader. His favorability ratio in the same poll as Nader is 10% favorable, 17% unfavorable, 56% did not recognize him and 17% were unsure. The poll crosstabs put the "typical" Barr supporter as a moderate or conservative, Republican or independent white male between 30-44 years old, from a Northeastern state. Likely on the ballot for 95.8% of Americans, Barr is conservatively forecast to get 1.5% of the vote. That means there will be an estimated 1,757,358 votes for the Libertarian nominee.
Green Party standard-bearer Cynthia McKinney draws 0.9% on average from the September polls available. Her support came from conservative, independent and Republican men from Southern and Midwestern "red" states. On the ballot for 70.5% of Americans, McKinney is forecast to get 775,952 votes.
Constitution Party candidate Chuck Baldwin is on the ballot for 59.8% of Americans this year. There was only one scientific poll with very questionable reliability way back in August that put Baldwin's support at 0.1% which is about what the CP ticket got four years ago. (One tracking poll that surveys nationally asks about for support for "Constitution Party candidate Ron Paul" which gets zero percent support consistently.) There is no scientific demographic information for Baldwin supporters. Based on those numbers, Baldwin is forecast to get 73,131 votes in November (Alan Keyes will be siphoning off some of his support).
Since a disproportionate share of the support for the all four main minor parties comes from conservatives and Republicans--including the votes to McKinney and Nader, the polls indicate a greater degree of dissatisfaction with McCain than with Obama. The 5% that the minor parties are getting is nearly all coming from McCain support. Only by adding the the minor party support to McCain's total does one find the usual two party parity.
I have calculated how much money each candidate has spent to get the support they have and will analyze those figures in the next installment for tomorrow. Of course, new polls keep coming out and campaign events unfold. This has been, even for politics, a very strange year.
J. Bradley Jansen was a legislative staffer for U.S. Congressman Ron Paul from 1997-2001. He is director of the Center for Financial Privacy and Human Rights of the Liberty and Privacy Network (but views expressed here are his own), which is part of Bob Barr's Patriots to Restore Checks and Balances.
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Posted By: David F. Nolan
Date: 2008-10-11 18:52:39
My best guess as of today is that Obama will get about 53% of the popular vote to McCain's 43-44%, with 3-4% split among Nader, Barr, McKinney and Baldwin -- in that order. I think Bradley's estimates for Nader and Barr are high, by a factor of roughly two. As for McKinney and Baldwin ... who knows? With Ron Paul's endorsement, Baldwin could get close to 500,000 votes. Most of those votes probably have gone to Barr if his dumbass campaign manager hadn't screwed things up.
Posted By: Bradley in DC
Date: 2008-10-11 19:01:57
David,
I explain my estimates for each candidate are explained in previous columns hyperlinked in the percentage of the expected vote. Those estimates were based on the September polls.
Posted By: David F. Nolan
Date: 2008-10-12 10:06:17
Bradley: Your numbers-crunching is impressive, but polls are notoriousy bad at predicting vote totals for third-party candidates. A lot of people who SAY they intend to vote for Nader or Barr will "chicken out" and vote for a major party candidate when they actually have to make their choice. I expect the Presidential vote this year will be around 135 million, up about 10% from 2004.
As you note, Nader is the best-known and best-funded "minor" candidate, and I expect he will get more than one million votes. Barr should get close to a million, plus or minus. As for McKinney and Baldwin, the data is too sketchy. Normally, I'd expect McKinney to beat Baldwin, but Baldwin might surpass her because of the Ron Paul "boost."Â I doubt they'll receive one million votes between them.Â
So overall, I'm guessing that that Nader, Barr, McKinney and Baldwin will get about 3% of the vote. Maybe a bit more, maybe a bit less.Â
If one wants a good estimate of how the election will turn out, I suggest visiting the prediction markets at Intrade.com (which is in agreement with this article). Those are real people who are putting real money on the line for this election, so I suspect they have done their research.
I also suspect that the traditional polls have incentives, financial or otherwise, for "adjusting" their numbers and always depicting the race as being neck-and-neck rather than showing one candidate pulling far ahead of the others to an insurmountable lead long before the election is held. Otherwise, pundits and news shows would have nothing to talk about; uncertainty means drama, and drama means ratings. Also, if one candidate was shown to be clearly in the lead, do not underestimate the psychological bandwagon effect that would have as people flocked to back the predicted "winner" so as to not be associated with the "loser."
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