Topic: Election 2008
The Money Race For President Handicapping the 2008 presidential election through FEC reports. As the expression goes, "Show me the money!"by Bradley Jansen
(libertarian)
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
The Money Race For President
Candidates for the presidency that raise enough money must report to the Federal Election Commission. How is the money race for the president among the minor party and independent candidates going? Unfortunately, few candidates are able to parlay the free major media into successful poll numbers the way Republican presidential primary candidate Mike Huckabee was able to do. In order to get their message out to the people, candidates generally have to rely on paid media. As everyone who has received donation solications understands, campaigns cost money.
According to a query on the Federal Election Commission website, there were 140 people who filed FEC reports for president in the 2008 election cycle (including a few who were running for vice-president). Ten percent of those, including John Edwards who closed down his campaign, listed zero net receipts, net disbursements, cash or debt. Many others, such as Jonathan the Impaler Sharkey, reported very small figures for any of the categories. Some must file reports as they pay off campaign debt, such as the $3 million owed by Lyndon LaRouche, who are not currently running for president. I honestly have to admit that while I have followed this race pretty closely, but I have no idea who most of these people are--and I suspect neither do most Americans. The Green Papers website offers some information on a long list of unknown candidates.
Many of the candidates whose reports are listed failed to get their respective political party nominations. Familiar names of Republicans and Democrats grace the list: among them, Ron Paul raised an impressive $35 million. So do Bob Barr's competitors for the Libertarian Party nomination and others who tried to capture the nomination of other minor parties. A few who lost their parties nominations have continued their presidential runs including George Phillies who lost the LP nomination and Alan Keyes who lost both the Republican and Constitution Party nominations but soldiers on as the nominee of the American Independent or America's Independent Parties in three states. George Phillies raised about $16,000 in contributions remains on the ballot only in New Hampshire after his name was used as a placeholder for the LP nominee. Alan Keyes' campaigns owe net nearly half a million dollars.
Of the current presidential candidates of note, Democratic Party presidential nominee Barack Obama tops the charts with nearly a half a billion dollars raised and more than $77 million cash on hand at the end of August; he reportedly raised and additional $66 million since then. Mr. Obama has opted not to take federal matching funds and is therefore not bound by those rules spending limits. Republican nominee John McCain, who coauthored the bill establishing those rules, will follow the spending limits--and take the taxpayer cash. Mr. McCain's campaign raised nearly a quarter of a billion dollars with about half of Obama's cash on hand, according to a report through the end of August. Both Messrs. Obama and McCain are on all 51 ballots in November.
There are four other candidates on the ballot in enough states to get 270 electoral college votes. Of the independent and main minor party candidates, Ralph Nader had receipts of over $3 million with nearly half a million dollars cash on hand; however, Nader raised only $1.9 million of that from individual contributions. Mr. Nader probably has the highest name recognition of the minor party candidates from his previous presidential runs and his decades of consumer activism. Libertarian Party nominee Bob Barr comes in a strong second in the money race with nearly $900,000--almost all of it from individual contributions. Cynthia McKinney, the Green Party nominee, and Chuck Baldwin, the Constitution Party standard-bearer, essentially tied the money since both raised just over $130,000: McKinney raised slightly more than Baldwin, but Baldwin raised slightly more in individual contributions. All of these figures are from Federal Election Commission reports and are through the end of August.
The updated figures through the end of September should be out in the next week or so. Expect Barack Obama to increase his lead in the money race substantially. The McCain campaign will have to make allocation of resource decisions because of the spending limits that accompany receiving federal matching funds. Given the relative lack of hard poll numbers, the new FEC numbers might be indicative of how well the minor party candidates are doing.
[N.B. The Barr poll analysis is finished except for the ballot access uncertainty. I hope to post it tomorrow at least with a range given the uncertainty of the court disputes.]
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The views expressed in this
article are those of Bradley Jansen only and do not represent
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