Topic: Election 2008
Chuck Baldwin, For Better Or For Worse A look at the Chuck Baldwin/Alan Keyes split in the Constitution Party and their chances in November.by Bradley Jansen
(libertarian)
Saturday, October 4, 2008
Chuck Baldwin, For Better Or For Worse
Citing irreconcilable differences, the competing Constitution Party presidential gentlemen callers Charles Obadiah "Chuck" Baldwin and Alan Keyes have separated. No final word on the outcome of the ballot custody disputes as they continue to vie for their progenies' affection. Chuck Baldwin is on the ballot this year in 37 states with 318 electoral votes while American Independent Party/America's Independent Party candidate Alan Keyes is on the ballot in 3 states with 91 electoral votes. According to The Green Papers, Baldwin is on the ballot in various states under the Alaskan Independence, Constitution, Reform, U.S. Taxpayers, Nebraska, Independent American and Independent Greens party tickets. In one of history's great ironies, Alan Keyes is the standard bearer of George Wallace's upstart party in the same year Barack Obama is the Democratic presidential nominee.
An August World Net Daily/Zogby poll is the only scientific one considering these Constitution Party candidates. In it, Alan Keyes got 0.7% of the vote besting Baldwin's 0.1%. Baldwin's support in this poll is roughly similar to his 2004 race as the CP's vice presidential nominee when he and Michael Peroutka received 144,499 popular votes for 0.12% of the 122,293,548 total votes cast. As if all of this were not confusing enough, US Congressman Ron Paul, a 2008 Republican presidential primary contender and the 1988 Libertarian Party presidential nominee, plays a relunctant cochette in Montana and Louisiana for a total of 12 electoral votes. Obligingly, the Democracy Corp surveys ask, "Now thinking about the presidential election in November. If the election for president were held today and the candidates Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, Independent candidate Ralph Nader and Constitution Party/Louisiana Taxpayer Party candidate Ron Paul, for whom would you vote?" Putting aside the confusing wording, if possible, the question consistently elicits zero percent support both nationwide in their selected 16 battleground states (which includes Montana but not Louisiana) but an asterik for "Lean Constitution Party/ Louisiana Taxpayer Party candidate Ron Paul" both nationwide and in the battleground states.
Keyes decisively won full ballot custody in California, but he and Baldwin are sharing custody in Colorado and Florida with both of them on the ballot there. In the 2004 presidential election, the Constitution Party ticket of Michael Peroutka and Charles Baldwin got 26,645 votes in California for 0.21% (listed under the American Independent Party there). Peroutka did roughly twice as well in California as they did nationwide. In Colorado, Baldwin will be competing with a record 15 other candidates including nominees of the Libertarian, Objectivist, America's Independent (with Alan Keyes), Boston Tea and Prohibition parties. In Florida, well, nevermind, this story is convoluted enough already without going there.
What do Constitution Party supporters look like? Since there are no scientific polls offering crosstabs, the best I can show is an unscientific September online poll of John Birch Society members who overwhelming chose Chuck Baldwin and then Bob Barr as their choices for president. There is also another unscientific online poll on World Net Daily giving Chuck Baldwin 6% and Alan Keyes 2% of the vote. Since Keyes has raised significantly more money than Baldwin, I would venture to say that Baldwin supporters are statistically more inclined to be Birchers who read World Net Daily than the general population but are either relatively poorer or less committed than Keyes supporters.
According to Federal Election Commission reports, Baldwin (FEC P80005499) has raised $131,456 through the end of August, 2008 while Keyes (FEC P60003076) raised $419,234 through the end of July 2008.
Keyes is on the ballot in states that cast 18.1% of the national popular vote in 2004, according to Ballot Access News, while 59.8% of voters will see Baldwin's name. Four years ago, the Michael Peroutka and Chuck Baldwin ticket reached 66.4% of the voters. Based exclusively on an extrapolation of the one scientific poll with very little confidence in the dated numbers, then Keyes would be forecast to get 154,945 votes with Baldwin receiving 73,131 votes. However, the poll clearly overestimates minor party support with a "representative sample" that implies 4% Libertarian, 1.4% Green and 1% Constitution Party members among the general population.
While their combined numbers--or Keyes alone--would be an improvement over four years ago, in reality, their split--and competition for votes in Florida and Colorado--probably means the Constitution Party will get fewer total votes. It is always the children that get hurt in a divorce.
J. Bradley Jansen was a legislative staffer for U.S. Congressman Ron Paul from 1997-2001. He is director of the Center for Financial Privacy and Human Rights of the Liberty and Privacy Network (but views expressed here are his own), which is part of Bob Barr's Patriots to Restore Checks and Balances.
Did you like this article? If you did, Thumb It! 12 thumbs so far
The views expressed in this
article are those of Bradley Jansen only and do not represent
the views of Nolan Chart, LLC or its affiliates. Bradley Jansen is
solely responsible for the contents of this article and is not an
employee or otherwise affiliated with Nolan Chart, LLC in his/her role as a columnist.
Actually, I understand Baldwin is now on the ballot in California for the 'Constitution Party' (not the American Independent party') and your look at contributions was before Ron Paul gave his somewhat forced endorsement, which happened to be of Baldwin. (I think what is important to Ron Paul is just that people vote principled third party. Even after his statement that after being badgered to name an endorsement by the Libertarian party, he was naming Baldwin, he still said he hoped both Baldwin and the Libertarian candidate got a lot of votes.)
I was going to vote for the Libertarian party candidate despite misgivings about his sincerity, due to the fact that I thought it would be most viewed as a vote for Ron Paul (who is not on the ballot in my state.) I changed my vote to Baldwin or Boston Tea Party after the Libertarian party candidate took some actions I thought betrayed someone who had been saying nice things in national media about him, across the nation. I didn't wait for Ron Paul to come out with an endorsement. Now that he has, I will likely vote for Baldwin, though. I will donate to him, as well, but not at the level I would donate to Ron Paul. The one point you do make is about enthusiasm. I'm still enthusiastic about someone who isn't running.
Posted By: Bradley in DC
Date: 2008-10-04 10:20:23
Baldwin is not on the ballot in California (but he is a write-in candidate).
I used the last public filings for donations. There should be new filings soon. I plan on looking at those figures for the candidates for another column.
I'm doing a quick series analyzing the four main minor party candidates each day before the BTM third party event Tuesday.
I enjoyed the article and will look forward to the ones to come. It is my hope that the bailout situation causes people to understand and take advantage of real choices (other than McBama). Of course, as you know, my pick would be Chuck Baldwin as a great man of principle and constitutional unerstanding.
When people realize what the McBamas of the world have done to them and their financial future, they will be pleased at what they find waiting in the wings via the third parties to potentially actually END the FED and 'bail them out' of a terrible mess.
I know it is a long shot, but I hope 'we' wake up this time and refuse to vote for the lesser of two evils. Then 'we' can coalesce behind one of the other candidates. I pray and I believe in miracles!
Posted By: Bradley in DC
Date: 2008-10-05 19:28:30
Hi Sandie,
I'm glad you liked it. If you find good info on Baldwin's support that I can use, please pass it along to me. Baldwin is certainly preferable to the "McBama" as you put it, yes.
And yes, we are certainly in for some interesting financial times ahead--let's hope this last irresponsible bailout is our wakeup call.
Everyone needs to call and email their local media outlets and demand that they give attension to the third party candidates. If they had the same airtime as either Obama or McCain then those two wouldnt be smilling 1/2 as often.
Also email the two main candidates and ask them why they are afraid to debate with Baldwin. We know why but get them to do it. We need a real change and neither of those two guys will give us what we need!
Want to comment on this
article? Leave your comment here. Your email address is
required to track your comment. However, we will neither
publish your email address nor distribute it to other
organizations or persons. The only reason we might use
it would be if we needed to contact you regarding your
comment. All comments are subject to our
terms of use policy.
