Topic: Presidential Campaign 2008
Electoral College Tie -- How Likely? A quick review of recent elections shows that the GOP and the Dems could easily wind up with 269 Electoral Votes each on Election Night!by David F. Nolan
(libertarian)
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Motivated by a desire to see how much impact Bob Barr is likely to have on the upcoming Presidential election, I went down a list of all 50 states plus Washington DC to see how their electoral votes are likely to go, and where (if anywhere) Barr's vote is likely to influence the outcome.
Something interesting emerged: if every state votes the way it "normally" does, the result will be a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College.
Now I should hasten to add, there are hundreds, if not thousands, of possible outcomes on November 4, in terms of how various states might vote. And just because one possible outcome among many is the most probable among all the alternatives, that doesn't mean the probability is very high.
Nonetheless, here's what I did, and what turned up.
My first step was to see how each of the 50 states (plus DC) voted in the five most recent Presidential elections, and put each into one of six categories:
Solid Democratic = voted Democrat all 5 times. Nine states and Washington DC are in this category. They are: DC (3 electoral Votes), HI (4 EV), MA (12 EV), MI (17 EV), MN (10 EV), NY (31 EV), OR (7 EV), RI (4 EV), WA (11 EV) and WI (10 EV). Total: 109 Electoral Votes.
Strongly Leaning Democratic = voted Democrat 4 times. CA (55 EV), CT (7 EV), DE (3 EV), IL (21 EV), IA (7 EV), ME (4 EV), MD (10 EV), NJ (15 EV), PA (21 EV), VT (3 EV). Total: 146 Electoral Votes.
Leaning GOP = voted Republican 3 times. AR (6 EV), KY (8 EV), LA (9 EV), MO (11 EV), NV (5 EV), OH (20 EV), TN (11 EV). Total: 70 Electoral Votes.
Strongly Leaning GOP = voted Republican 4 times. AZ (10 EV), CO (9 EV), FL (27 EV), GA (15 EV), MT (3 EV). Total: 64 Electoral Votes.
Solid GOP = voted Republican all 5 times. AL (9 EV), AK (3 EV), ID (4 EV), IN (11 EV), KS (6 EV), MS (6 EV), NE (5 EV), NC (15 EV), ND (3 EV), OK (7 EV), SC (8 EV), SD (3 EV), TX (34 EV), UT (5 EV), VA (13 EV), WY (3 EV). Total: 135 Electoral Votes.
Adding the totals in each group, we find that the states that are strongly Democratic or lean Democratic have 269 Electoral Votes -- as do the states that are strongly Republican or lean Republican!
Of course, every election is different. There's no guarantee that states will vote the way they have most often voted in the five most recent elections. The ten states in the "leaning" categories could easily vote the other way this time. (And Barr may well win enough votes in NH and NV to "cover the spread" between McCain and Obama.)
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I did the same exercise over the weekend (Yahoo, Washington Post, and several other sites offer Electoral College simulators), and arrived at the same 269-269 result.
An acquaintance emailed me a note about doing the same thing.
The way Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral votes by congressional district could mix things up a little too.
But it'll be interesting to see what happens in the event of an Electoral College tie.
A few commentators have already predicted that Obama is the likely winner if such a tie occurs based on how that tie is broken by the U.S. Congress.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Every vote would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections.
Under the proposed interstate compact, there would never be a tie in the electoral vote because the compact always represents a bloc consisting of a majority of the electoral votes. Thus, an election for President would never be thrown into the House of Representatives (with each state casting one vote) and an election for Vice President would never be thrown into the Senate (with each Senator casting one vote).
The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes—that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
I actually ran a legitimate scenario today (9/22/08) that indicates that a tie could easily happen if the election were today, and my conclusion would have to be for an Obama-Palin administration (*gulp*)
1) I took the current default map from http://www.270towin.com which plots expected outcomes in states where polls are convincing enough to predict a winner. That leaves 13 states undecided.
2) I plug in all of the light red/blue conclusions from the USA Today poll tracker at http://tiny.pl/8kmm . That leaves 4 states undecided (NV, CO, PA, NH.)
3) I take the most recent poll data from those four states (in the case of an exact tie, I take the most recent poll with a decision) as reported by USA Today. The polls show NV: McCain (49-46), CO: Obama (51-41), PA: Obama (49-44), and NH: McCain (48-45) Now, I plug these four results into the interactive map at 270towin, and I get...
*gasp*
Obama: 269; McCain: 269... A DEAD TIE!!!
Now, I had to look up what happens in the case of a tie: 270towin says: "If neither candidate has reached 270 Electoral Votes, then the House and Senate take over and elect the President and Vice-President, respectively."
4) So, let's go to the House of Representatives to determine the president. Assuming straight party lines, the House is controlled by the Dems, so OBAMA IS "ELECTED" PRESIDENT by the House
5) Let's turn to the Senate to determine the VP: 49 Reps, 49 Dems, 2 Independents. Again, going with straight party line, the score is 49-49. Now, I have to expect that Lieberman will vote for Palin, so give her a one vote advantage, but even if Bernard Sanders votes for Biden, you now have a 50-50 tie... bring in Dick Cheney to break the tie, he'll go party line for sure, and PALIN IS "ELECTED" VICE PRESIDENT by the senate.
Of course, this assumes that the levels remain constant in Congress, that's a big "if" as it relates to the Senate... but I found the exercise both entertaining and amusing nevertheless.
Be sure to get out and vote on Nov 4th... it's gonna be a tight race this year.
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