Topic: Presidential Campaign 2008
Ron Paul, Romney, Thompson Battling for Top Spot in West Virginia GOP The CNN Opinion Poll released this week does not include Paul and Thompson. Yet those two candidates are on the minds of West Viginians.by DigitalBob
(Libertarian)
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
For the legions of Ron Paul supporters, polls such as the CNN Matchup make no sense. Ron Paul isn't in them. I yawn when hearing CNN drone on about how (quote) McCain is the only Republican who beats any of the three Democrats (end quote). It doesn't make sense that the candidate that has the most contrarian stances and is raising the most money in the GOP by grassroots supporters doesn't get a mention in the media polls.
Of course, the only polls which count are the ballot results. The two races that seem to get the most media attention are Iowa Caucus on January 3 and the New Hampshire Primary on January 8. Living in Michigan, I'm looking at the primary here on January 15. However, in that mix, West Virginia is selecting their GOP delegates during the first two weeks of January.
West Virginia will send 30 delegates to the Republican Convention. (In contrast, New Hampshire will only get 12, because the Republican National Committee penalized states that move up their primaries before Feb. 5.) Before that happens, W.Va. will hold a state convention on Feb. 5., where 18 of the 30 delegates will be selected by roll call. If no candidate gets 50% of the vote, then there will be a runoff among the top three candidates, and then between the top two, if there is still no majority winner. The top vote getter will eventually get all 18 of these modified caucus delegates to the Republican Convention.
Later, on May 13, 9 more delegates will be selected by Primary. The remaining three will be represented by W.Va. State GOP leaders as uncommitted.
But even now, you can see how the race there is shaping up. At the website www.WVGOPConvention.com shows which delegates are pledged for which candidates here. The file is in PDF format, so you'll have to do some conversion, if you want to analyze it in Excel.
After downloading the file and running a couple summary total counts, I had similar results to those Tony Rutherford did at Huntington News. I'll take his numbers over mine. Let me summarize his results here:
Ron Paul 229
Mitt Romney 225
Fred Thompson 170
Mike Huckabee 134
Rudy Giuliani 93
John McCain 27
Alan Keyes 6
Brownback, Hunter, and Gene Zarwell are still listed at www.TheGreenPapers.com as being eligible candidates in W. Va.
Before all the Ron Paul supporters get comfortable, thinking that you've won, I've got news: there are still over 40% of the delegates uncommitted. When I ran my numbers, I counted over 1,550 delegates registered. There can only be 1,446. Some counties have more registered delegates than there are seats. This is going to get interesting. Some seats are filled by appointment, county convention and electronic balloting--depending on the situation. The rules regarding allocation of seats are complex. You can decipher the details here if you have a lot of time on your hands.
Most of the Ron Paul delegates are in "at large" seats. The Associated Press article, run at www.dailymail.com, emphasizes that the delegate count puts Romney ahead, with the most guaranteed seats. Breaking it down:
Mitt Romney 107
Fred Thompson 77
Ron Paul 54
And then there are 61% of the guaranteed delegates still uncommitted.
The count of overall delegates by AP has Ron Paul at 299, Romney at 227. My numbers were closer to Rutherford's.
The AP article also breaks down "margin" by county of possible delegates to a candidate.
Mitt Romney 5 Counties
Ron Paul 2 Counties
Other five 1 County each
So when all the cable news outlets are touting the CNN match up poll this week, which doesn't include Ron Paul nor Fred Thompson, you have to ask yourself, "is it really reflective of the 'top' candidates in each party?" Who cares if John McCain can stand up to the Democrats, if he can't get elected? Just ask the people voting in West Virginia.
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2007 DigitalBob, all rights reserved.
Published: Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Last modified: Wednesday, December 12, 2007
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More information from a Wheeling newspaper shows what is at stake, namely the counties will have elections now to get delegate counts within the limits between Jan. 1 and Jan 15, some via online voting, some via county convention. This will take place in 31 of the 55 West Virginia counties, and the results could be a drastic shift as the registered republican electorate weighs in, which will then be the delegate counts attending the convention Feb 5th. A large percentage are "undecided", not declaring for any candidate. Much then hinges for Paul on the county votes, now reported needed in 31 of 55, that will pare down or shift delegate counts accordingly. See the article for how this works.
"Bob Fish, executive director of the West Virginia GOP Convention Inc., said he was surprised to find delegate elections will be necessary in 31 of the state’s 55 counties."
I've been very closely involved with the West Virginia Convention process, and just have a couple of thoughts to add to your good piece about the state convention.
First, the reason that most of the "guaranteed" delegates are registered as uncommitted is precisely because they are guaranteed. Convention organizers, myself included, advised these guaranteed delegates that there was no particular benefit (except for perception for the particular candidates) in declaring a preference. Those running "at-large" within a county face the possibility of election by the public; it is in that circumstance where declaring a preference as true value--if the guy you prefer is popular among county caucusgoers. My sense of it is that many, if not most, of the "uncommitted" candidates do in fact have a predisposition at this stage of the game.
Second, the terms "committed" and "uncommitted" are misleading within the context of this discussion, though they are widely used (even by the convention itself). Each delegate to the state convention is a free agent and free to vote however they choose on the first ballot, even if they register a preference. So, just because Candidate X has so many preferences it won't necessarily translate into success on the floor. A great deal can happen over the next 8 weeks or so, and some who register a preference now may alter their way of thinking before February 5.
Third, I don't see the meaning of the "county margin" statistics from the AP. The votes, while reported county-by-county like the national convention, are not taken by a county winner-take-all system. That a candidate has a majority of county delegations may indicate strength of organization and support in those counties, it doesn't translate into statewide success. The counties where candidates have a majority of the delegates may be among the smallest counties/delegations in the state; in that case, that particular statistic would be meaningless.
Finally, I think what we see here in these delegate numbers are Ron Paul's ceiling. As noted, most of Paul's delegates have to run for their seats, and there will naturally be some drop-off. But the main reason I say 229 is the neighborhood of Paul's ceiling is that most of the uncommitted delegates are old party hands and stalwarts who are unlikely to come on board, with all due respect. This is the precise reason that Paul's support is coming from at-large filings; becuase the "guaranteed" seats, those allocated to the county executive committees, the state executive committee, and Republican elected officials, are going to other candidates. Ron Paul does not have the kind of support among the party infrastructure that he does among those who have joined the campaign from among the public; and public slots to the convention only constitute approximately 40% of the total.
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2007 DigitalBob, all rights reserved.