Topic: Election 2008
It Takes a Recession It's no coincidence that changes of leadership in our nation involve a recession. It's too bad for Barrack Obama that we do not have oneby EJ Moosa
(libertarian)
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Without a recession, Barack Obama is in serious trouble. Obama and the Democratic Party need a recession to ensure that we make a party change at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Today's revised GDP numbers have made that virtually impossible, as second quarter 2008 GDP looks solid, with growth of 3.3%, following growth in the first quarter as well. The only negative quarter was December 2007. Revising what a recession is will not work as the media has tried, either.
The media tried to convince us that things were horrible. Effectively, they started in 2007 trying to talk us into a recession, and therefore insuring a change at the top. This was the approach done in the early 90's, as we approached the contest between George HW Bush and William Jefferson Clinton. Media stories about the excess of the 1980's and that it was now time to pay the piper, sent the US economy into a tailspin, as business cut inventories preparing for a slowdown, effectively creating the slowdown.
But that is not to be this time, as US exports continue to grow. Why does this matter? Because the public is hearing a message from Obama that is just not true for the majority of Americans. In fact, there are sections of our economy, such as manufacturing, that are growing unlike anything they have seen in decades, thanks to the climbing exports. And inventories were already lean here in the United States. Inventory controls have worked well to keep many businesses outside of autos and housing, from having dangerous levels of inventory if we were headed into a slowdown.
Listening to the democrats this week in Denver, who would believe that news we heard from the US Census?
The US Census reported this week the following trends:
Real median household income increased between 2006 and 2007-the third annual increase.
The poverty rate was not statistically different between 2006 and 2007.
Both the number and percentage of people without health insurance coverage decreased between 2006 and 2007.
If Obama's message doesn't mesh with the economic reality, and the economy is growing, the majority of us will not want to change that, will we? If his economic message does not mesh with what we are experiencing, why would we buy his other messages? The majority of Americans will not.
Looking back at the economic history of the United States and the election process, we can see that we needed a recession to get the people of the United States to change the party of the President of the United States.
As Clinton's eight year term wound towards its' close, the United States was headed towards a recession. And the nation went with a change in leadership by electing George W Bush as President. There is disagreement about when the recession actually started, but there were two quarters of negative economic activity, and we moved from a democrat to a republican in the White House.
The previous recession was during George H W Bush's first term, and that was enough for the American people to require a change after 12 years of Republicans in the White House.
In the early 1980's we also had a recession, set up by the Carter administration's lackluster performance, and we booted the democrat from Pennsylvania Avenue and sent Ronald Reagan to replace him for the next eight years.
The recession in the mid 1970's sent Jimmy Carter to the White House, kicking Gerald Ford to the curb.
As the economy continues to show strength, and as additional news of the worldwide slowdown(home prices in Great Britian are down record amounts, for example), it is going to be difficult for Obama to blame anyone for an economic situation that is stronger than what we are seeing in the rest of the world. While some of the people just might believe that story, there will not be enough of them casting votes to remove the republicans from the White House.
Hillary Clinton is going to be the beneficiary of this, as she will be posed to grab the nomination in 2012, while stating that she did what was in the party's best interest in supporting Obama today. The party will owe her despite losing in November.
Let's hope we do not have a recession before 2012.
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The views expressed in this
article are those of EJ Moosa only and do not represent
the views of Nolan Chart, LLC or its affiliates. EJ Moosa is
solely responsible for the contents of this article and is not an
employee or otherwise affiliated with Nolan Chart, LLC in his/her role as a columnist.
Here in Southeast Michigan the economy is the most horrible ever because we depend on the auto industry. No matter what your numbers show, people in this part of our Nation are screwed with their depreciating homes and layoffs from the auto and suppliers everywhere. People here are leaving the state like Mexicans are leaving their country. Here they talk about depression, not recession. I hope you are right in your argument that the rest of the nation is not in a recession.
I just lost my job, along with 750 co-workers. I worked in the financial industry in Missouri. My job went to workers in Costa Rica who are paid $2.00/hr. My husband is also unemployed. His job was a computer networking job, that was insourced to workers from India. So...of course I am greatly affected, statistics can say whatever you like. Supposedly unemployment is the highest in 16 years, but that doesnt jive with your figures.
Obama will win, because everyone is sick and tired of this country being sold down the river. But you are right, my friend, we havent seen the end of Hilary. She will run in 2012 and 2016.
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