Topic: National Security
Iran's Nukes, They Should Know Better The Common Sense of our politicians baffles me. The NIE report shows the Iran threat is not as immediate as we were led to believe.by DigitalBob
(Libertarian)
Saturday, December 8, 2007
I have a problem with Common Sense. What's common sense to one person, isn't necessarily common to me. Having an interest in science, I'm reminded often that what we believe on first inspection may not be true. For those who are naive, let me point out a few things that I've found to be true.
The universe does not revolve round the earth. The earth turns. You're not that important.
A heavier object doesn't fall faster than a light object in a vacuum.
Homeopathic cures don't work. They are mostly water. However, they're less harmful than blood leeches.
Although water is good for you, it can also kill you, like during floods and as used in an enhanced interrogation technique.
Magic shows are illusions. You are purposely misled so that you think you are seeing something "unbelievable".
That last one really stings. I got a magic kit as a kid and didn't like it. It had an instruction booklet and some props. I felt cheated. I didn't want to do the magic, I wanted to have the magic. By giving me the truth about the magic trick, it took away from the mystery. I didn't delight in deceiving people. I have more fun learning what's true, and then telling someone.
When my father was dying of cancer, he started buying shark oil pills. He was told that sharks have a substance in their bodies that make them immune to cancer. By taking these pills he thought he'd be cured. I smiled and let him spend his money however he wanted. I'm sure the shark didn't smoke cigarettes for 30 years.
When I was in elementary school, we had a progressively minded teacher who showed her class of second-graders how surveys are conducted and discuss the results. One of the questions on the survey was "if the government made a report about our enemies, would you believe it?" Remember, this was the early 1970s while the Vietnam War was happening. I answered "no" with a few others. When asked why we answered "no", I said that all information needs to be confirmed. It had to make sense when compared to other reports. If the reports are in conflict, someone has to ask why. The correct answer was supposed to be "yes" according to the teacher, because the government had a lot of smart people and worked really hard to get the right answers.
That's why I'm annoyed when Al Gore says "the debate is over" when it comes to Global Warming. Or when those in favor of the Iraq War say "the surge is working". I want to know why they think so and why it should be important to me. I don't like taking the word of authority.
The recent National Intelligence Estimate casts serious doubts on the ability of Iran to produce a nuclear weapon in the next couple of years, if ever. Iran quit making weapons grade uranium four years ago. The last chart says that back in 2005, Iran had the plans to make a weapon, but a number of things would have to happen first for a weapon to become a reality. With the exception of those pesky covert programs, Iran probably won't have a nuclear weapon until 2015. That's if they want to build one. So far it looks like they just want to make electricity for their people. It's much like what Egypt wants to do, I suppose.
The report is only nine pages long. Once you get through the "likihoods" and "probablies", you're impression should be much like mine. How did the government get it so wrong?
In one of the Republican debates, some of the candidates didn't want to take off the table a preemptive nuclear strike. That is nuts. Nuclear weapons are imprecise. In addition to the immediate effects of heat and blast, which will kill a lot of civilians within a few miles of a target, you will end up with radiation that could last a very long time. If you think that rebuilding bridges and roads in Iraq is expensive, think how much it will cost to decontaminate the battlefields in Iran? You get all those other wonderful effects on the people as well, like flash burns, cancers, internal bleeding, blindness, and so on. I'm sure they'll love Americans after that.
The other reality of using nuclear weapons is the effects will outlast the political careers of those who decided to use them.
They should know better. They need to read that booklet that came with their toys.
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2007 DigitalBob, all rights reserved.
Published: Saturday, December 8, 2007
Last modified: Saturday, December 8, 2007
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2007 DigitalBob, all rights reserved.