This unscientific poll has some value, in tracking how the rEVOLution is EVOLving. by George J. Dance
(libertarian)
Monday, June 9, 2008
Unofficial fan site RonPaul.com is running an unscientific poll, under the title "What Should Ron Paul Do Now?" The options listed, and the results so far, are:
45.26% want Ron Paul to launch a new Presidential campaign as an independent or third party candidate.
34.22% want Ron Paul to stay in the Republican race and continue his efforts to take back the GOP.
12.05% want Ron Paul to drop out and endorse Barack Obama.
3.57% want Ron Paul to drop out and endorse Bob Barr.
2.24% want Ron Paul to drop out and endorse John McCain.
0.53% want Ron Paul to drop out and endorse Chuck Baldwin.
2.13% want Ron Paul to do something else.
The poll stays open until tomorrow, June 10. Vote here, and then come back.
Notwithstanding its scientific merits (being self-selected and all), the poll is irrelevant in determining what Ron Paul actually does. Ron Paul will continue to do what he has been doing, and saying he will do, since the start of his campaign: stay in the Republican race and party.
However, the poll does have one value, as a snapshot of where the rEVOLution is today; a blurred and out-of-focus snapshot, to be sure, but some actual data rather than pure speculation.
Estimating 1,000,000 rEVOLutionaries -- which I think is on the high end, but makes cardinalizing the percentages easier -- and assuming the sample's percentages hold for the larger group, then:
5,300 are already planning to vote or volunteer for the Constitution Pary, 35,000 for the Libertarian Party, and 120,000 for the Democratic Party. Most of those, I'd conjecture, are volunteers who moved into the rEVOLution from those parties, and now are moving back. The parts of the rEVOLution that attracted them, are what attracted them to those parties in the first place.
Similarly, the 22,400 rEVOLutionaries who want Paul to endorse McCain are committed to the Republican Party,.even to the extent of voting McCain themselves.
The second-largest group (342,200) also remains committed to the Republicans, though I'd call their commitment more provisional -- they're prepared to stay in the GOP while Ron Paul does -- and I doubt many of them will vote for McCain (unless Paul does endorse him). This looks like the band of 350,000 "true believers" Paul talked about in his March video, whom he hopes to make the nucleus of a reformed GOP. I think it includes not only Republicans, but also many of those new to politics.
The largest group (450,000) remains a mystery. As Paul will not be running independent or third-party, in the end they will have to choose one of the other options. There is no reason to think they will break as per the other 550,000; my conjecture is that those divided primarily by prior party loyalty, and this largest group is not motivated by party loyalty. Many of them may never have been in a party previously. All one can say for sure is that they are likely not Republicans.
This 450,000 (or so) is the real prize up for grabs by Barr and Baldwin (not to mention Obama and McCain). How many supporters each of these gentlemen can capture depends on how their own campaigns go between now and September.
That gives some idea, though a very tentative one, of the direction(s) the rEVolution is moving at this time. It would be interesting and informative to continue to run this poll through the campaign and track the results.
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My wife and I are part of that "mystery" group to who you refer. We are 30 year life time Republicans who have said enough. McCain is not getting our vote. My wife is not intending to vote for president this year, I in turn am voting for Obama, if McCain is the republican ballot choice. Reason is McCain is excepted as a Republican so should he win, like Bush the Republican masses will follow McCain over the cliff. If Obama is president at last the mass republican may resist Obama policy being the same as McCain. Example global warming, expanding government, bail out every interest group in economic trouble entering Washington DC for a handout. Ron Paul is the only presidential candidate who up front condemed and voted against the foolish rebate checks we are now getting to stimulate our economy. Now even McCain has reversed opinion and condems the rebate as a bad idea. At least Ron Paul is consistent on principle, something not available in Washington anymore.
To launch an independent campaign after emphatically stating he would not for all these months would cause Dr Paul to lose credibility, thus causing a devastating blow to his entire message. I believe that continuing spreading the message is most important. Let's remember, this is not about Dr Paul and it is our job to continue the fight for freedom and liberty after November. He has stated he will continue to act as an advisor and supporter of the cause, but he expects the people to do their work.
Ron Paul is only one person. He has already gone beyond the call of duty. He is doing a great job in Congress and it would be a shame to ask him to give up his seat because we would lose the only Freedom Voice that we have in DC. He is standing by, ready to seize any opportunity that might become available. There is nothing more that they can do. RP supporters? They need to find thousands of RP type leaders and support them. That is the only thing the RP people can do.
George you are not quite right in separating the 450,000 from the other 350,000 who are Republicans. These are not mutually exclusive subsets of Paul supporters. Many Republicans, like me, could easily support Ron Paul as an Independent, but of course prefer to see him run as a Republican. Unfortunately ballot access laws prevent Dr. Paul from running as an Independent or 3rd party candidate in many states. I couldn't be waterboarded into voting for McCain.
I'm one of those people that have always believed that non-local government (presidential) elections are pre-determined and put into power those that will tow the line and wishes of big business and other worldwide religio-politico interests. I was vindicated amongst all my disbelieving friends during the last two election cycles when we saw Premier Bush cheated into not one, but two terms in office. Blatantly. Look at it this way: do you truly believe that some rich, Yale educated and oil investing millionaire candidate and his cronies would allow a mullet wearing, NASCAR loving, beer swilling peasant to decide the outcome of the election for the leader of one of the most powerful nations on this Earth? Riiiiigghhtt.... That being said, Ron Paul is the only candidate in my voting career (since 1988) that has been qualified to run this country as a servant of the people and Constitution. He is also the only candidate that has ever given me any hope. I generally vote party line Libertarian just to clear my conscience and say that I'm doing my patriotic duty, but changed to Republican for these primaries. I will now be switching back to Libertarian and voting for Bob Barr, but would really rather see a Paul/Barr ticket under the flag of Independent. But inreality it doesn't matter. The president and his cabinet have been chosen and will take power no matter whom you vote for. :-(
Hey "True Conservative": If being a supporter of Ron Paul and his belief in the Constitution makes me a fringe lunatic, then I proudly wear that banner. But what it actually shows is how far from being a "True Conservative" you really are. You obviously know nothing about our country's history, founding ideologies or the blessed document that set this nation apart as an example for the last 200+ years, the Constitution. War mongering Republicrats like yourself are pathetic and have been the ruin of this once great nation. I hope you're happy with your results.
Posted By: John Campbell
Date: 2008-06-12 13:50:09
Hey True Conservative. I would much rather fit your definition of "fringe lunatic" than swear blind allegiance to the Republican Party no matter what steaming pile they nominate.
My integrity is more important than electability...unlike millions of people, my conscience will actually haunt me for the next 4 years if I vote for the two party system because the next president is just about guaranteed to be as bad if not even worse than Bush. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results...so if you keep voting for the two party system don't expect different results....you'll keep getting more of the same. As Jay Leno once said...you get the government you deserve.
I am doing the right thing and voting for a third party candidate.
