Liberty in America
columnist: rtbohan

Topic: Presidential Campaign 2008
Are We There yet? The Vote in KY & OR

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Are we there yet? Do we have a winner? Can we have our TV back?

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by rtbohan
(Libertarian)
Wednesday, May 21, 2008

American voters  have been reduced to the level of small children, asking "Are we there yet?" every five minutes during a five day  trip..  The media has assured us that the candidates have been selected and that John McCain will be facing Barack Obama in the fall.  But indications are that not all the other candidates believe this announcement and that not all of the voters are satisfied with it.  And the front runners, or at least one of them, must be worried that he began his victory lap early.

Both Semator McCain and Senator Obma seem to believe that the way to guarantee their selection as their party's nominee is to act as though the selection has already taken place.  The two candidates may be the current darlings of the party establishment, but the establishments have shown themselves to be quite fickle.  Because McCain has not bothered to campaign in the primaries and state conventions he has had trouble showing that he can unify the party base behind him.  This is allowing Governor Huckabee to virtually force himself into the Vice Presidential nomination, and has allowed Representative Paul to continue to build his movement within the Republican Party.

Senator Obama, after his split decision in te two primaries held May 6, decided that he would adopt the same tactic as McCain, and the two have been exchanging potshots.  What Obama seems not to have noticed that McCain is taking his cues from Senator Clinton, or she is choing McCain's charges.  While Senator Clinton continues her campaign, he is taking incoming shells from two sides and firing back only on one.  This can seriously damage him.

I mentioned during the Potomac primary that Senator Obama's campaign team seems to show a damaging arrogance in their relations with other groups, and that this can cost him votes.  More recently, in "3 Tips for Obama" I said that Obama must avoid for himself and his campaign the appearance of arrogance.  Today for the second time in two weeks, this arrogrance has damaged his candidacy.

When Senator Clinton announced May 6 that she was continuing her campaign and went off to spend a week campaigning in West Virginia, Senator Obama said he expected Senator Clinton to win in West Vigininia but it did not matter.  He then said that he expected Senator Clinto n to win in Kentucky, but it did not matter.  He went to Oregon and said he hoped to win the primary, but that Senator Clinton might, and it did not matter.  Although he spent some time in Oregon, Obama neglected Kentucky as he had West Virginia.

And the result was the same.  On Tuesday, Obama lost in Kentucky, a state he was predicted to win two weeks ago, by a margin of 459,145 to 209, 771, his second loss by a 2-1 margin in two weeks.  The fact that an additional 32,000 votes were split between Uncommitted and John Edwards made the overalll redjection even more striking..  A front runner, or a presumptive nominee should not be losing states by that kind of margin at the end of the campaign.  If the errors which led to this kind of loss are corrected, Obama may still escape permanent damage.  But if he does not take the rejection seriously, his campaign is in real trouble.  In Oregon, Obama came out ahead.  It is difficult to know exactly how to read the Oregon results since the balloting is entirely by mail, so that today's results may or may not reflect current opinion in the state.  The latest count from Oregon (with 88% of the vote in) shows Obama 331,138 (58%) Clinton 236,470 (42%).  This would be an impressive victory if it were not offset by Clinton's even more impressive win in Kentucky.  The overall result of the day's voting gives Clinton a net gain of 13 delegates, which is a minor reduction in Obama's delegate lead of more than two hundred.  But Obama really cannot afford a string of major losses going into the convention.

Senator McCain has a won majority of the pledged delegate votes and has been running as though he has the nomination for some time.  But he has not yet shown that there is anything approach unanimity or much enthusiasm behind this majority.  In recent weeks, he has confined himself largely to echoing Senator Clinton and questioning the patriotism of all who criticize the government.  This may increase the enthusiasm of the supporters of the Bush imperialism, but it not likely to win many new supporters.  In Kentucky, McCain won 72% of the vote in the Republican primary, but this is not impressive for someone who seems to have the nomination sewed up.  Governor Huckabee, who has now formally announced his pretty evident desire to have the Vice Presidential nomination, finished second with 8% of the with Ron Paul a little under 2000 votes behind him with 7%.  5% of the votes were cast for "Uncommitted", and Romney, Giuliani and Alan Keyes divided the final 8% of the vote.  Again, the  nearly 30%  of the Republican voters refused to unite behind McCain.  In Oregon, the Republican contest was a two man affair with McCain sharing the ballot only with Ron Paul. Here, as in Nebraska last week, McCain was able to win over 80% of the vote, as the presumptive nominee of the party should be doing in all the states. The vote so far in Oregon is McCain 263,768 (85%, Paul 46,779 (15%).  Paul appears to have won two more pledged delegates to the National Convention. MeCain has gotten the numbers he should get as the apparent nominee, but Paul achieved one of his highest percentages of the campaign, a number which indicates a good start toward the reform of the Republican Party which he is seeking.

So the answer to the question with which we began this discussion is, "No, we aren't there yet.'  There is a lot of controversy before we reach the conventions, possibly for both parties, some side trips through the judicial system, and  bitter (am I allowed to say that?) interparty and intraparty fights during the fall.  I have always believed that the American politiical system could survive any thing.  This year is going to put that assumption to the test.

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2008 rtbohan, all rights reserved.
Published: Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Last modified: Wednesday, May 21, 2008

The views expressed in this article are those of rtbohan only and do not represent the views of Nolan Chart, LLC or its affiliates. rtbohan is solely responsible for the contents of this article and is not an employee or otherwise affiliated with Nolan Chart, LLC in his/her role as a columnist.

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