An email released by the campaign today offered a brief glimpse at the overall strategy they are taking in Iowa. by Walt Thiessen
(libertarian)
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
The Ron Paul 2008 campaign says that they need 25,000 Iowans to vote for Dr. Paul in order to secure a third place finish in the caucuses. By making this statement, they make it clear what their goal is. It's a goal that makes sense. A respectable finish in Iowa means that Dr. Paul has to be considered a serious challenger in New Hampshire, which is where most of the grassroots activity is taking place these days. It's a smart strategy, because it potentially sets the stage. New Hampshire must be considered fertile ground for a libertarian-leaning alternative to the traditional candidates.
The campaign also made clear that they know they're going to need help in order to pull it off. They have therefore offered free room and board to 150 student volunteers willing to go to Iowa. All they have to do is get there. This also makes sense.
The part that didn't make sense is that the email said the campaign intends for these 150 student volunteers to reach 10,000 Iowans over the course of the 19 days they'll be there. Let's see, that's about three and a half contacts per day, per student. That didn't sound right. So I called the Iowa office of the campaign and spoke with John Zambenini, communications coordinator. He confirmed that it was indeed a typo and that the real number was more like 600,000. That made a lot more sense, because that's roughly the number of registered Republicans in Iowa. Thanks John!
Students interested in being a part of Iowa history on the campaign's tab must RSVP right away. First come, first served.
Waterloo Walkoff
This Saturday, December 8th, the campaign will attempt to reach 100,000 people in Waterloo, IA. Considering Waterloo has 60,000 residents, I'm betting that the walkoff includes surrounding towns. The campaign will follow up the following weekend with another "walkoff" in Davenport.
Overall, the Iowa campaign is planning lit dropping, door belling, phone calling, and "most importantly helping county chairs." Ah, those county chairs! I doubt that there will be much "sitting" going on.
The Results?
Is 25,000 a reasonable goal for Iowa? The campaign thinks it's very reasonable.
It's hard to know for sure what results all this activity will produce. I doubt that even the campaign itself knows. Old-fashioned canvassing can definitely accomplish a lot for a candidate. There is also little doubt that Dr. Paul will have more operatives in the field pounding the pavement than any other candidate, Republican or Democratic.
One of the most telling indicators such campaigning will reveal is whether it changes Dr. Paul's current unfavorability numbers. Most pollsters have those numbers at over 50%. However, this kind of figure is to be expected for a relatively unknown candidate, which Dr. Paul still is for most Iowans. As the volunteers help people get to know him, that number could fall precipitously. If that happens, watch out! Iowa and America could be in for a surprise.
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This is a reasonable goal for Iowa. Iowa is a tough nut to crack because of the influence of the religious-right's there, which is the ONLY reason that the "huckster" is polling anything there.
Sad to say, but my opinion is that I don't think any effort on RP's behalf other than some individual changes will work with this group. They are for the most part avid socialist and dislike anything "smacking" of individualism or not "smiting" your enemites as god [Bush] has directed.
This was not the thinking, thank God, of the religious at the time of the American Revolution. In fact many preachers fought for American Freedom and religious tolerance, but alas no longer.
Third would be just fine, and it would be really neat if he "slipped" into second place.
Did anyone notice the Romney problem today of him having to fire "illegals" who were mowing his grass? HA! This could be his death knell in the State of Iowa.
Success creates success; the better we can do and the earlier we can do it the more we will be in a position to take advantage of this very unique Feb. 5 "super" day. I've been supporting Ron Paul since I first discovered my favorite Congressman had started running for President. Since that time I've went from believing that he had no chance to win to now believing that victory is quite literally within our reach. We cannot be complacent though. We've got to get out there and really make this thing happen. This is the United States of America, but that name will ring hollow throughout history if we don't keep the liberty that made us what we are. Ron Paul is a big first step to restoring our Constitution. Long live the Republic!
Jim, the general mental acuity of the "religious right" is truly a problem that I also see. Brainwashing has had a major impact in all areas, and the ability of the "average Christian" to overcome it is problematic. IMHO the blame lays largely at the feet of church "leaders" who have seriously misconstrued the teachings of scripture.
There are some notable exceptions, thank God, such as Chuck Baldwin.
The thing that I struggle with constantly is how to communicate with the pew sitters who have been dumbed down by years of misleading preaching hand in hand with government propaganda!
No, Ron Paul! Aim higher! Aim really high! You are Ron Paul! You could do anything, especially if it wasn't for the mainstream media's unfair treatment of you. Your the best, and your the only one on the Republican side with a clear, discernable message that's unique from them all!
They say, there has never been anybody who has been able to carry both Iowa and New Hampshire. Well, they also said that nobody could get 5 million dollars in one day, gain a following amoungst today's "pro-war" Republicans, and reignite new passion for systems that have been disabled by the establishment that have dumbed down Americans to the point where they feel so broken that they no longer can believe inthemselves; their ability to help one-another, improve our economy, workforce, and self-deffenses. You're the only one capable of showing others that they are not merely the government's pawns, but that they can do things themselves, and this is not something to be taken lightly.
This is what Iowa needs to hear. That is what New Hampshire needs to hear. This is what every single state in the entire nation needs to hear. Tell it to them like that and you'll win in a landslide everywhere. We need better. We need better than the establishment telling us what to do. Telling us what currencies we need to identify with and how to use them, no matter how improbable those implications are. What pre-emptive wars we need to fight and how large the empire needs to be. We're not going to be led that way, and we can start of that way through a first place in Iowa.
First let me just say that your retorts regarding how Christians today are socialists is absolutely false. And while there are many Christian leaders today who are definitely on the statist side of things, especially on foreign policy, there are many of us out here, including Ron Paul himself he would argue, who are neither Atheist, as you seem to be, i assume, nor are we warmongering Crusaders fighting for right. We are people who are very libertarian, not despite our Christian beliefs, but rather because of them. So while there is some truth to what you said, how you said it, and the half truthful nature of it is glaring.
Posted By: Walt Thiessen
Date: 2007-12-06 06:10:06
To 1st in Iowa --- nothing less:
I personally like the idea of aiming higher. First in Iowa would be an absolutely spectacular, off-the-charts, monumental, blow America's minds victory. Having said that, I should also point out that there's a downside to aiming high. You can miss the target entirely by overshooting it, often with catastrophic results.
As an example, I would point to the experience of the Libertarian Party in the 1996 and 2000 elections. Most of America is unaware of what happened in the party those years, but party loyalists remember. Those were the years that the wonderful libertarian Harry Browne was our candidate. It marked the only time in party history when the same candidate had been nominated twice. Browne was that popular.
The campaign set some very high goals both times, in combination with some extraordinarily high goals that were also set by the party leadership for membership growth. The methods that were advocated for raising menbership were based on mailing to targeted mailing lists in huge numbers, similar to what large fundraising organizations do. For the campaign, the goal was to make a big splash with heavily financed radio and TV ads.
The problem is that the leadership at that time set their goals so high that they became literally unbelievable to many in the rank-and-file. Many felt that the goals were so unbelievable that they decided it must all be a scam. This trickle of fear-based sentiment gradually turned into an avalanche as some people within the party actually started working against their own presidential candidate because they believed he and his campaign leadership, as well as the leadership of the party, were all one-in-the-same and must therefore be scamming the party out of all the donations that were being received to support Browne's candidacy. To this day, there are many who continue to argue that the scam was real. I don't doubt that at least one of those people might see my message here and leave one of their own saying that they still have "proof" that it was indeed a scam.
In the end, none of the allegations were proved except one: that the campaign manager had also been a paid employee of the party for a short time, in violation of party rules. I believe his total earnings under this "scam" was well under $10,000. For this, he was banished from the party for life. He became the main focus of all the anti-Browne sentiment that had boiled up out of this pot of over-expectations.
The party went into a steep nosedive from that point onward, and to this day it has not recovered. The lesson to be learned is this: If you set your goals too high, your own followers can start to disbelieve, thereby undermining any success you might achieve and turning it into destruction and failure.
Couple of statewides today from RCP actually have Ron Paul dipping a bit. Not by much, but down a point or two in New Hampshire and another State. Could be Ron Paul has peaked? Maybe cause of his embarrassing performance on The View?
I'd like to see the campaign include in their literature that Ron Paul was right all along about Iran while Bush was asleep at the wheel. Oh, and of course that he was right about Iraq, too.
This article writer may be aiming for "third" place but us real Ron Paul supporters are gonna get a win. Keep printing your disillusionment propaganda, it will not work on anyone who thinks for themselves.
